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Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

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Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#51

I think Cuban is wrong. It's WORSE when ordinary investors are risking their money. Today, you've got angels and VCs that have risked their money. And this is money they don't need. Big deal if everything implodes, what do they lose? Simply their bets. Back in 2000s, a lot of ordinary people lost money they couldn't afford to lose.

What he seems to be implying is that there are investment funds that exist solely for private equity investments, i.e. investments in startups as "VC" money. If that's true, and it's true that stuff like pension funds are sinking money into these "Equity Crowd Funds," then we're in real big trouble.

Pensions have been getting destroyed on private equity investments for as long as pension funds have existed.

Most venture capital funds return between almost nothing and nothing. Most venture capital companies are horrendous stewards of institutional money. You can look up the available data, it's ugly for everything outside the best of the best.

I fail to see how it's worse to take a 97% loss on the bottom 3/4+ of VC firms, as opposed to taking the same total loss on a spread of crowd equity funding investments.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#52
Until companies with serious cash to spend [0][1][2][3][4] stop buying up startups, this bubble won't end anytime soon.

[0] - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UA+Key+Statistics (just recently spent ~$900M on acquisitions)

[1] - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MSFT+Key+Statistics

[2] - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GOOG+Key+Statistics

[3] - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ORCL+Key+Statistics

[4] - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=EBAY+Key+Statistics

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#53
This isn't an indictment of valuations being necessarily inflated more than they were in 1999. He's critiquing a new preference for private investments which are very, very difficult to liquidate. That lack of liquidity, combined with easier access to investments via crowd funding has the potential to crash very similarly to mortgage backed securities.

It's easy to get in and impossible to get out. If things start falling, investors are locked in for the whole ride down. That structure combined with a heady appetite for putting it in the first place primes the pump for a painful crash.

[edit for question] He implies the SEC is restricting mechanisms for adding liquidity to private/crowd funded investments. Any idea if he has a specific proposal in mind?

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#54

I think Cuban is wrong. It's WORSE when ordinary investors are risking their money. Today, you've got angels and VCs that have risked their money. And this is money they don't need. Big deal if everything implodes, what do they lose? Simply their bets. Back in 2000s, a lot of ordinary people lost money they couldn't afford to lose.

VC's are not risking their money they are risking yours. VC's get money from your insurer, pension provider, 401K and similar saving options. While you might invest and gamble with your own money, VC's are literally gambling with everyone's future. And these days the regulations limiting insurance companies and private pension providers in investing their money in a VC or other types of risky capital are looser than…

Pension funds and similar investment vehicles put a tiny percentage of their money into VC funds. Those losses shouldn't affect the individuals much.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#55

I think Cuban is wrong. It's WORSE when ordinary investors are risking their money. Today, you've got angels and VCs that have risked their money. And this is money they don't need. Big deal if everything implodes, what do they lose? Simply their bets. Back in 2000s, a lot of ordinary people lost money they couldn't afford to lose.

What he seems to be implying is that there are investment funds that exist solely for private equity investments, i.e. investments in startups as "VC" money. If that's true, and it's true that stuff like pension funds are sinking money into these "Equity Crowd Funds," then we're in real big trouble.

It's not only pensions, it's insurers and worse underwriters, universities, local governments, non-profit organizations and more. The amount of actual "private equity" in most VC's is minimal to non-existent, people with those amounts of money have much better investments options and more importantly they know better.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#56

So Cuban started (what became) Broadcast.com, ramped it up to $13.5 Million revenue per quarter [1], and sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 billion (in stock, but we'll disregard that fact for now). On track to do $54 million in a year, means he sold for 1,000x one year's revenue. 15 years later, Facebook brings in $3.2 Billion in revenue and has a market cap of ~$41 Billion, or about 12.8 times one year's revenue. [2] And we…

Because, headline / clicks! :)

The thing I'm frankly most worried about is interest rates, which will be the thing to reset the current angel situation. If interest rates rise, it's likely some of the more levered investors will have a safer place to put their cash than LPs. Seems like it'd be an inverted stage crisis where people either can't raise late stage rounds and maybe that stops up the front?

This is all with about 5 minutes of thought.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#58

So Cuban started (what became) Broadcast.com, ramped it up to $13.5 Million revenue per quarter [1], and sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 billion (in stock, but we'll disregard that fact for now). On track to do $54 million in a year, means he sold for 1,000x one year's revenue. 15 years later, Facebook brings in $3.2 Billion in revenue and has a market cap of ~$41 Billion, or about 12.8 times one year's revenue. [2] And we…

Facebook's market cap isn't 41B, it's about 223B, as of today (using yahoo/google finance):

* https://www.google.com/finance?q=fb

* http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#59

So Cuban started (what became) Broadcast.com, ramped it up to $13.5 Million revenue per quarter [1], and sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 billion (in stock, but we'll disregard that fact for now). On track to do $54 million in a year, means he sold for 1,000x one year's revenue. 15 years later, Facebook brings in $3.2 Billion in revenue and has a market cap of ~$41 Billion, or about 12.8 times one year's revenue. [2] And we…

Mark Cuban is the lottery winner who thinks he's Jim Clark.

Re: Why This Tech Bubble is Worse Than the Tech Bubble of 2000

#60

So Cuban started (what became) Broadcast.com, ramped it up to $13.5 Million revenue per quarter [1], and sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 billion (in stock, but we'll disregard that fact for now). On track to do $54 million in a year, means he sold for 1,000x one year's revenue. 15 years later, Facebook brings in $3.2 Billion in revenue and has a market cap of ~$41 Billion, or about 12.8 times one year's revenue. [2] And we…

Facebook's market cap isn't 41B, it's about 223B, as of today (using yahoo/google finance): * https://www.google.com/finance?q=fb * http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb

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