Live data from Hacker News

Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

sidazhang.com

11–20 of 111 posts

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#11
The title is very click-baity, I think we can all agree on that.

However, a lot of the points made within are completely legit. The Bitcoin world is rife with scams and one of the primary uses of Bitcoin is to engage in illegal transactions. The benefits of de-regulation are obvious, but the downsides are killing it right now. A lot of people are stuck on the "regulation is evil!" rehtoric due to the current issues with the NSA and the government in general, but I think everyone needs to take a step back and realize that a radical shift in the opposite direction is not the answer.

The technology is interesting, and I definitely think we'll see the ideas behind some of these new cryptocurrencies working to change the future of currency in general, but Bitcoin itself is not that future.

I also see that the /r/bitcoin defense force is in full swing here, unsurprisingly.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#12
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in Bitcoinland, objections against Bitcoin are also often flagged as trolling, and dismissed immediately

There is definitely a pervasive culture within cryptos of people either "getting it" or "not". It's a bit disturbing.

This is true for the cultures surrounding most things I'd postulate. A large majority who support it, largely blindly but dismiss valid arguments against with suspicion, and a smaller minority who actually understand counter arguments, but believe, or hold a complex opinion.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#13
The author makes a lot of statements but doesn't really back them up with solid facts or analysis. Consider the second reason of "Bitcoin will not end the need for trusted central parties" and claims that intermediaries do more than just payment processing. As an example, he talks about YouTube and revenue splitting.

I don't understand the connection between YouTube revenue splitting and Bitcoin replacing traditional currencies. I guess this is supposed to be an example of intermediaries providing value added, but can we at least provide an example in the payment processing space? What does a credit card company provide that is not provided by Bitcoin?

Overall, I am on the fence on Bitcoin. I get the feeling cryptocurrencies will drastically change the world economy in the future, but I don't think anyone really knows how and to what extent.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#14
The first point is the only real argument IMHO and as others here have said, it's prediction, not reasons. Here's the crux of the first argument:

1. At the same number of daily transactions, fees must increase 250 folds. Or,

2. At the same fee level, transaction count must increase 250 folds. Or,

3. Price increases 250 folds to $65000/BTC. Or,

4. A combination of all 3

#4 seemed like the question answered itself. Instead the author doesn't acknowledge #4 at all:

"However, neither one of these scenarios is likely to occur. Scenario 1 represents a per transaction fee of $10. Scenario 2 represents 290 transactions per second and close to 25 million transactions per day"

The second part of the first argument is comparing Bitcoin costs to credit card costs. What the author is trying to say is that Fiat->XBT, buy something, then XBT->Fiat is more expensive than credit card fees of 3%. But on Coinbase, for example, that would be ~2% in transaction fees and that will only go down as XBT inventory is held and pooled so not every purchase transaction results in a fiat conversion. That's only being done now as a bootstrapping strategy (and it seems to be working).

I think the author has some good points here but didn't seriously address them, only thinly speculated on them. I'm giving it an up-vote to hopefully have some deeper discussion especially around the first argument of Bitcoin's inherent costs.

A quick side note: I'd like to see an analysis of electricity costs of mining vs. mining fees. Mining fees eventually need to surpass electricity costs for mining to be sustainable after inflation-payments are gone. The difference between costs and fees is the margin the miners will make. To me, that would really answer the first argument.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#15
I do belive that bitcoin has huge drawbacks, but there are allready system that are way better in most of these. Delegated prove of stack allows for extreamly low cost, high speed transactions.

The notion of a DAC is extreamly intresting, insead of destroying money be wasting it on energy companys we use this money to improve the infrastructure. This will allow development and even services.

The problem of the transaction and the lack of annonymity can be solved rather well. The goal is identity if you want it, annonymity otherwise.

Bitcoin has a clear first mover advantage but with the development of smart wallets and things like that, altcoins will be more easly integrated with the market.

This technology is in its early days but it does have lits of promis.

> People forget quickly that regulations were enacted in response to fraud and to protect people.

If you really belive that, you have not studied the history of banking reglation.

Bitcoin suffers from the same problem that all trade on the international internet suffers from, the lack of contract enforcment.

There is a huge diffrece between finacial regulation and contract enforcment. Contracts can be self enforcing by simular mechanisms as it is on ebay. We just need a opt identity system.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#16
I think this essay is top heavy: the conclusions can't hold given the assumptions.

Take the first argument: for transactions to remain cheap one of three things has to happen, then those three things are painted as almost impossible.

But the second one; "At the same fee level, transaction count must increase 250 folds." Seems completely possible.

If transactions remain relatively cheap then bitcoin can be very useful for microtransactions. And if they are useful for microtransactions then, by there nature, there will be many more transactions.

Then the author is all over the map in the second section. At one point saying decentralized entities are useless, then that they don't provide value compared to traditional centralized entities, then than they /are/ real competition for those traditional services but the only real beneficiaries of trustless decentralized transactions are people engaged in illegal activity.

They close out by saying since cyberpunks, drug dealers, and gamblers use bitcoin now, it will never find a place in the public sphere. But the blockchain idea is a good one and will find some sort of use.

TL:DR The first point was interesting but flawed. The rest was garbage.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#17

The author makes a lot of statements but doesn't really back them up with solid facts or analysis. Consider the second reason of "Bitcoin will not end the need for trusted central parties" and claims that intermediaries do more than just payment processing. As an example, he talks about YouTube and revenue splitting. I don't understand the connection between YouTube revenue splitting and Bitcoin replacing traditional…

To build a bit more context, there are a lot of talks about how Bitcoin will:

- Replace youtube in the form of a decentralized video platform - Decentralized Spotify - Decentralized Uber

A google search of DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) and you will find many many people talking about that. The thesis is that, no Bitcoin won't decentralize all these intermediaries, instead what is more feasible is that maybe future blockchain technologies could lower barriers to entry.

As for comparison payment processing space, this is more in point 1. Bitcoin is not cheaper. Bitcoin is extremely expensive to use and intended to be expensive.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#18
post #6

Despite the click-bait title, the article makes valid points which are very often overlooked or downright ignored by hardcore bitcoiners. As someone who's been watching bitcoin for the past few years, this is in my opinion the plain reality.

The problem with that article is not that it makes 0 valid points, it's that it makes some terrible correlations as an attempt to prove cryptos won't be huge.

What does a scammer selling unlicensed shares in porn production have anything to do with the success or failure of cryptocurrency? Bitcoin was simply the method of payment, nothing more.

That example is immediately followed with the eBay + TicketMaster examples and the importance of centralized reputation/trust. The leap is then made to "...drug dealers establish reputation through their PGP key or BitCoin address". Ok, an objectively factual statement. The author proceeds to go off the rails with the assertion that only criminals value decentralized trust. Please.

You know why I would prefer a decentralized trustful solution like OpenBazaar? Because eBay bends me over with fees. In fact, they double dip. And there's nothing I can do about it.

It's not about illegal use cases. It's about empowerment of the individual over seemingly insurmountable institutions. The author is having the wrong discussion.

Re: Why the practical applications of Bitcoin will be limited

#19

I think this essay is top heavy: the conclusions can't hold given the assumptions. Take the first argument: for transactions to remain cheap one of three things has to happen, then those three things are painted as almost impossible. But the second one; "At the same fee level, transaction count must increase 250 folds." Seems completely possible. If transactions remain relatively cheap then bitcoin can be very useful…

I think he means transactions per block, which is hard to increase 250x.
Post reply on HN