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Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

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Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#51
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always considered them to be a "trump-card" against any developments that negate surface craft. Suppose in a future "Battle of the Taiwan Straight" the PRC makes it sufficiently unhealthy that our carriers can't support the ROC? And things are marginal for the destroyers we can spare? If they can't also negate the attack subs.... I would cut the carrier force before I'd cut the attack subs.

At the danger of starting something political, I don't think the US can win a war with China in the Taiwan straight regardless of fleet composition. China is not Iraq in terms of signals intelligence, electronic warfare capability, and nuclear arsenal. Never mind financial and political wherewithal. The Chinese were more than a match sixty years ago to the point that MacArthur was fired over wanting to go hot with th…

Against the US of that time (Truman disamement resulted in the military buying back "surplus" recently sold), the US Army of that time (read the chapter "Proud Legions" in This Kind of War), against one of the most overrated generals in US history ... they "were more than a match". So were the North Koreans prior to Ridgway taking command of the 8th Army and e.g. our cracking the problem of the KPA's T-34s. The Marines, on the other hand, hadn't devolved like the Army, and their story was very different.

Even then, with the PRC entering the war rather late in the game, the total for the war kill ratios were 1-3 in our favor.

The ability of the ROC and the US to win such a modern battle of the Taiwan Straights depends on too many unknowns for us to make any solid predictions right now. How much of Taiwan is the PRC willing to destroy to capture it? Can a clever attack by air avoid the "million man swim"? Will we even have enough time to mobilize, or would it be a a Bolt Out Of the Blue attack? Would they even try if the new PRC leadership starts failing hard on the mainland? Or might that prompt them to try, but perhaps badly? Would we even try if Obama was still President?

As for "a reasonably peaceful solution", I don't see that even being a possibility with the new leadership's program of repression.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>He is not qualified to say that, What about Bryan Clark? Is he? http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/submarines/20... >There is not much danger that these new technologies will be able to detect a sub in our lifetime. Really? Are you qualified to say that?

Source: US Navy submarine nuclear reactor officer, 20+ years

I don't know you, nor do I know Clark, or any of the others,

>>"We need to think about a new strategy for undersea warfare," said Bryan Clark, a former submariner and Navy strategist now with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

This Clark guy, writing for DefenseNews claims to have been on a sub, and a place named the CSBA hired him. The trouble here is that I can't see why I should take either of yours or their assertions at face value. I don't know what their angle is, nor yours.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but if they have to launch from the middle of the ocean, their advantage over ICBM's becomes much smaller, maybe none if they can't strike & destroy hostile C&C and launch sites. It is already a very small window of time that boomers are most useful for in a hot war. SLBM's utility in peacetime/pre-war is contingent upon people not knowing where they are. OTOH, relying on ICMB's is contingent on enough people…

Huh? The advantage of SLBMs is that they are enormously survivable. It doesn't matter where they are as long as they can't be taken out in a first strike, so they provide robust, highly credible retaliatory strike capability at all times. Modern SLBMs have more than enough range to maintain that from the middle of the ocean.

>The advantage of SLBMs is that they are enormously survivable.

Right but their survivability is contingent upon their not being detected.

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