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Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

nationalinterest.org

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Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#21

Post by pm90 »

hga wrote: post #17
exabrial wrote: post #15

Here's the thing about submarines you may not realize: they are the trump card when it comes to nuclear warfare and keeping MAD in place. If one country "struck first" and tried to wipe out our nuclear silos, nuclear armed subs would retaliate. Given the surface are of the world covered by water, there are quite a few hiding places too. What happens to MAD after we have a reliable way to detect subs? :/ Don't really…

They aren't the sole trump card, that role is also played by manned bombers that can launch on warning from the middle of the without committing to bomb that targets, without even having the ability to arm their warheads ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link ); SLBMs are trump cards against undetectable attacks, or at least ones that can be detected in time, see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/w…

Yep. MIRV's also make it incredibly hard for any kind of "Missile Defense".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targeta...

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#22

Post by lettergram »

pm90 wrote: post #20
rbc wrote: post #13

Obsolete sounds a little strong. The denied areas for submarine operations will get larger, but the ocean is really big. Running the fixed and mobile sensor arrays to detect submarines is not cheap. Regardless of the foreseeable improvements in submarine detection, they'll still be harder to find than surface ships.

Absolutely. Case in point: the missing Malaysian airplane is yet to be found.

That even had a transmitter, and wasn't designed to be difficult to find.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#23

Post by fnordfnordfnord »

rbc wrote: post #13

Obsolete sounds a little strong. The denied areas for submarine operations will get larger, but the ocean is really big. Running the fixed and mobile sensor arrays to detect submarines is not cheap. Regardless of the foreseeable improvements in submarine detection, they'll still be harder to find than surface ships.

Right, but if they have to launch from the middle of the ocean, their advantage over ICBM's becomes much smaller, maybe none if they can't strike & destroy hostile C&C and launch sites. It is already a very small window of time that boomers are most useful for in a hot war. SLBM's utility in peacetime/pre-war is contingent upon people not knowing where they are.

OTOH, relying on ICMB's is contingent on enough people at SAC being sober, which may not be a safe bet.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#24

Post by dingaling »

mabbo wrote: post #2

I forget where I heard it, but in a discussion about stealth fighters and stealth capabilities, the conclusion of one person was that it was a game of material scientists vs computer scientists, and that in the end, computer scientists seem to be able to outpace material scientists.

Some'big data' approaches to negating stealth include analysing holes that the aircraft create in the fabric of shortwave radio and cosmic background microwaves.

It does seem that the detection people have data and CPY on their side.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#25

Post by adventured »

hga wrote: post #17
exabrial wrote: post #15

Here's the thing about submarines you may not realize: they are the trump card when it comes to nuclear warfare and keeping MAD in place. If one country "struck first" and tried to wipe out our nuclear silos, nuclear armed subs would retaliate. Given the surface are of the world covered by water, there are quite a few hiding places too. What happens to MAD after we have a reliable way to detect subs? :/ Don't really…

They aren't the sole trump card, that role is also played by manned bombers that can launch on warning from the middle of the without committing to bomb that targets, without even having the ability to arm their warheads ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link ); SLBMs are trump cards against undetectable attacks, or at least ones that can be detected in time, see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/w…

Not to mention that over the next 20 years, it seems very likely our nuclear delivery options will expand to the UAV field in some manner or another.

And we'll also see advances when it comes to very long range, hypersonic strike weapons that can carry nuclear payloads (Prompt Global Strike, you can bet they'll be able to slap a small nuke on it, whether they openly admit that or not).

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#26

Post by bubbleHead »

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #14
bubbleHead wrote: post #7

This guy's premise is that submarines are going to lose their stealthy advantage. He is not qualified to say that, and the technology he mentions could become a threat to subs has been talked about for 20+ years. There is not much danger that these new technologies will be able to detect a sub in our lifetime. I acknowledge that technology will require subs to become even more quiet, but new propulsion systems are no…

>He is not qualified to say that, What about Bryan Clark? Is he? http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/submarines/20... >There is not much danger that these new technologies will be able to detect a sub in our lifetime. Really? Are you qualified to say that?

Source: US Navy submarine nuclear reactor officer, 20+ years

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#27

Post by topkai22 »

rbc wrote: post #13

Obsolete sounds a little strong. The denied areas for submarine operations will get larger, but the ocean is really big. Running the fixed and mobile sensor arrays to detect submarines is not cheap. Regardless of the foreseeable improvements in submarine detection, they'll still be harder to find than surface ships.

Original report is located at http://csbaonline.org/publications/2015/01/undersea-warfare/. Much more informative than the national interest article.

Obsolete is definitely a little strong- the original report leans toward area denial for littoral operations and says nothing about almost nothing about Boomers.

The evolution of the submarine to an underwater mothership with UUV and other components is well underway, especially for littoral operaitons- see, for example the cancelled http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_SEAL_Delivery_System.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#28

Post by dimitar »

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #23
rbc wrote: post #13

Obsolete sounds a little strong. The denied areas for submarine operations will get larger, but the ocean is really big. Running the fixed and mobile sensor arrays to detect submarines is not cheap. Regardless of the foreseeable improvements in submarine detection, they'll still be harder to find than surface ships.

Right, but if they have to launch from the middle of the ocean, their advantage over ICBM's becomes much smaller, maybe none if they can't strike & destroy hostile C&C and launch sites. It is already a very small window of time that boomers are most useful for in a hot war. SLBM's utility in peacetime/pre-war is contingent upon people not knowing where they are. OTOH, relying on ICMB's is contingent on enough people…

Nuclear ballistic missile-armed submarines are considered second strike weapons, even though there are first strike scenarios for their use.

Their missiles don't have the range to hit launch sites that are far inland in North America or Eurasia. Even if they did the missiles would be vulnerable to anti defence. Additionally they are slow moving, which is very undesirable in first strikes.

However they can get really close to major population centers near the oceans and kill millions. Thus second-strike forces are supposed to act as deterrence. Area denial can make them much less effective if combined with proper air defence to take down the missiles.

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#29

Post by [deleted] »

topkai22 wrote: post #27
rbc wrote: post #13

Obsolete sounds a little strong. The denied areas for submarine operations will get larger, but the ocean is really big. Running the fixed and mobile sensor arrays to detect submarines is not cheap. Regardless of the foreseeable improvements in submarine detection, they'll still be harder to find than surface ships.

Original report is located at http://csbaonline.org/publications/2015/01/undersea-warfare/ . Much more informative than the national interest article. Obsolete is definitely a little strong- the original report leans toward area denial for littoral operations and says nothing about almost nothing about Boomers. The evolution of the submarine to an underwater mothership with UUV and other components is well underway,…

[deleted]

Re: Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?

#30

Post by cocoablazing »

hga wrote: post #17
exabrial wrote: post #15

Here's the thing about submarines you may not realize: they are the trump card when it comes to nuclear warfare and keeping MAD in place. If one country "struck first" and tried to wipe out our nuclear silos, nuclear armed subs would retaliate. Given the surface are of the world covered by water, there are quite a few hiding places too. What happens to MAD after we have a reliable way to detect subs? :/ Don't really…

They aren't the sole trump card, that role is also played by manned bombers that can launch on warning from the middle of the without committing to bomb that targets, without even having the ability to arm their warheads ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link ); SLBMs are trump cards against undetectable attacks, or at least ones that can be detected in time, see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/w…

This is outdated information. FOBS are not deployed, and there are no US/NATO aircraft on alert. I don't know who you are speaking for regarding confidence in ABM's, but it's not the community of technical professionals that analyze strategic defense and deterrence. SLBM's are not a trump card, since if they are what you are relying on for counter-strike, your nation has been annihilated.
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