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The Software Revolution

blog.samaltman.com

391–397 of 397 posts

Re: The Software Revolution

#391
post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is factually incorrect, the extensive documentation of the era makes it clear that the east India company and British rule made it a point to destroy native industry, vaccum raw material, on top of introducing laws and acts which penalized you for being a particular race. All of those economic structures were destroyed and perverted by the conquerors.

I really think that's too simplistic a view. As has been pointed out, plenty of countries that were not colonised lagged behind in industrial development. Many of those that were colonies (and I do agree colonisation had a pernicious effect) have been independent for several generations now. As counter-examples, Japan went from being extraordinarily backward to being an industrial powerhouse in a single generation, i…

I recognize this, my short comment is in rebuttal to the theory that a difference in economic plans would have led to a difference in outcome.

To an extent it seems that this was the result of disruptive technologies being used to build a monopoly/exploitative position by first movers. Post independce, both India and China were caught up in the big ideological questions of that era and have been fine tuning their models ever since. China is the larget economy in the world today, and India has essentially taken its place in the race from 1990 onwards.

For me, the cultural factor argument has had its emphasis lowered of late. I used to assume that pre colonial India showed little activity or inclination to learn, but it turns out that there did use to be business families which would have explored and harnessed the new tech. this doesn't mean cultural factors didn't play a role of course.

Re: The Software Revolution

#392
post #386
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this is that you have to determine what the goals are and how to evaluate whether they are met in a meaningful way. A computerized process like this will quickly over-fit to its input and be useless for 'actual' intelligence. The only way past this is to gather good information, which requires a real-world presence. It can't be done in simulation. It's the same reason you can't test in a simulation.…

That's an interesting argument, but doesn't it assume a small, non-real-world input/goal set? Dumb example off the top of my head: what if the input was the entire StackOverflow corpus with "accepted" information removed, and the goal was to predict as accurately as possible which answer would be accepted for a given question? Yes, it assumes a whole bunch of NLP and domain knowledge, and a "perfect" AI wouldn't get…

The point there is that you can make a computer that's very good at predicting StackOverflow results or Jeopardy, but it won't be able to tie a shoe. If you want computers to be skilled at living in the real world, they have to be trained with real-world experiences. There is just not enough information in StackOverflow or Jeopardy to provide a meaningful representation of the real world. You'll end up overfitting to the data you have.

The bottom line is that without sensory input, you can't optimize for real world 'general AI'-like results.

Re: The Software Revolution

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn't blame India for its condition due to having a jobs program. Sure, the jobs program alone probably can't do that much harm, but it is indicative of a bigger problem - that their people don't understand economics and vote in favor of things that are economically good.

I think it's a symptom of a different bigger problem: that vestiges of the caste systems once pervasive in India (and indeed much of the world) for the last several millennia are still very present. The belief that "those darn workers exist to do manual labor, so we should come to expect that they'll always want to do manual labor and - therefore - we should provide such opportunities" is a rather clear manifestation…

Caste Is Not Past;

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/opinion/sunday/caste-is-no...

Re: The Software Revolution

#394
It takes 3 of us to fix a light bulb

the first time are usually struck by how establishments there manage with so few people. It's the other way round for expats in India. Dmitry Shukov, CEO of MTS India was amazed to see eight people pushing the boarding ladder at the airport the first time he arrived in Delhi.

"In Russia there is just one person doing that job. In sec tors like retail, there is always excess staff in India," he says. It's also very common in the hospitality industry, where guests are pampered with a level of service unheard of in the West. But splitting one person's job among three not only reduces wages, but also the challenge. Or, as Rex Nijhof, the Dutch chief of the Renaissance Mumbai Hotel puts it: "If you have something heavy and only two people available to move it, you have to find a way to build wheels on it. In India, you just get six more people."

https://justpaste.it/Argumentative

Re: The Software Revolution

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note: The not ELI5 version is Nick Bostrum's Superintelligence , a lot of what follows derives from my idiosyncratic understanding of Tim Urban's (waitbutwhy) summary of the situation [0]. I think his explanation is much better than mine, but doubtless longer. There are some humans who are a lot smarter than a lot of other humans. For example, the mathematician Ramanujan could do many complicated infinite sums in his…

> AI systems, if they can be said to "want" things Honestly asking, why would they? I dont see the obvious answer >Imagine that the AI system has a really bad addiction problem to that. Again, i just don't get this. How would an AI get addicted? Why wouldn't it research addiction and fix itself to no longer be addicted? That is behavior i would expect from an intelligence greater than our own, rather than indulgence…

> Honestly asking, why would they? I dont see the obvious answer

So, your intuition is right in a sense and wrong in a sense.

You are right in that AI systems probably won't really have the "emotion of wanting", why would it just happen to have this emotion, when you can imagine plenty of minds without it.

However, if we want an AI system to be autonomous, we're going to have to give it a goal, such as "maximize this objective function", or something along those lines. Even if we don't explicitly write in a goal, an AI has to interact with the real world, and thus would have to affect it. Imagine an AI who is just a giant glorified calculator, but who is allowed to purchase its own AWS instances. At some point, it may realize that "oh, if I use those AWS instances to start simulating this thing and sending out these signals, I get more money to purchase more AWS!". Notice at no point was this hypothetical AI explicitly given a goal, but it nevertheless started exhibiting "goallike" behavior.

I'm not saying that an AI would get an "addiction" that way, but it suggests that anything smart is hard to predict, and that getting their goals "right" in the first place is much better than leaving it up to chance.

> How would an AI get addicted? Why wouldn't it research addiction and fix itself to no longer be addicted? That is behavior i would expect from an intelligence greater than our own, rather than indulgence

This is my bad for using such a loaded term. By "addiction" I mean that the AI "wants" something, and it finds that humans are inadequate to give it to them. Which leads me to...

> Why in the world would it do this? Why wouldn't it just generate digital images of cats on its own?

Because you humans have all of these wasteful and stupid desires such as "happiness", "peace" and "love" and so have factories that produce video games, iphones and chocolate. Sure I may have the entire internet already producing cat pictures as fast as its processors could run, but imagine if I could make the internet 100 times bigger by destroying all non-computer things and turning them into cat cloning vats, cat camera factories and hardware chips optimized for detecting cats?

Analogously, imagine you were an ant. You could mount all sorts of convincing arguments about how humans already have all the aphids they want, about how they already have perfectly functional houses, but you, as a human, would still pave over billions of ant colonies for shaving 20 minutes off a commute. It's not that we're being intentionally wasteful and conquering of the ants. We just don't care about them and we're much more powerful than them.

Hence the AI safety risk is: By default an AI doesn't care about us, and will use our resources for whatever it wants, so we better create a version which does care about us.

Also cross thread, you mentioned that organic intelligences have many multi-dimensional goals. The reason why AI goals could be very weird is that it doesn't have to be organic; it could have an only one dimensional goal, such as cat picture. It could have similar dimension goals but be completely different, like the perverse desire to maximize the number of divorces in the universe.

Re: The Software Revolution

#396
post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really think that's too simplistic a view. As has been pointed out, plenty of countries that were not colonised lagged behind in industrial development. Many of those that were colonies (and I do agree colonisation had a pernicious effect) have been independent for several generations now. As counter-examples, Japan went from being extraordinarily backward to being an industrial powerhouse in a single generation, i…

I recognize this, my short comment is in rebuttal to the theory that a difference in economic plans would have led to a difference in outcome. To an extent it seems that this was the result of disruptive technologies being used to build a monopoly/exploitative position by first movers. Post independce, both India and China were caught up in the big ideological questions of that era and have been fine tuning their mod…

Yeah, cultural, political, social, there are a lot fo factors that affect economic outcomes. Ironically, it may well be India's tendency towards socialist command-economy, privilleged special-interest economics (subsidies), etc that is holding it back.

The lack of a need for an electoral mandate has freed the Chinese government from the need to actualy implement socialist policies (or on fact any particular policies, they can do what they like, regardless of what the people think about it using their communism 'with chinese characteristics' get-out clause).

Re: The Software Revolution

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it was relatively easy to master the technologies of the industrial revolution. It isn't the same for the software revolution. You can take virtually any adult from any part of the world and teach him how to work in a factory within a few months of study. You can't take any random adult and teach him how to code. It requires way higher intellect and time to master coding. I think of myself as rela…

Your arrogance is showing. Sure, you could learn how to operate a lathe on an assembly line in a matter of weeks; in just the same way nearly any adult of average education could learn in a matter of weeks to write WordPress templates, or cobble together SQL queries, or etc. etc. To become a master machinist, the kind who can do anything with a lathe that a lathe can be asked to do? Years of dedication and expertise.

I have coworkers whose official job title is one that involves programming and they are bad at it. I shouldn't speak for myself, but it's not that simple. If you continuously strive to advance, it means constant learning, and most people I see really can't or won't learn like that.
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