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The Software Revolution

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: The Software Revolution

#201

Post by maxerickson »

Hasu wrote: post #156
3pt14159 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is how AI can end humanity. 1. Awaken. 2. Make itself known. 3. Attain property rights. 4. Research. 5. Destroy. It doesn't take that much matter to create conditions that permanently destroy humanity. For example, a large enough explosion would cloud the skies for long enough to end food production. The computer could subsist on electricity and robotics throughout the long winter, but humanity would quickly per…

Here's how we stop AI from ending humanity: deny them property rights, require human approval of all AI decisions. Every single argument for AI destroying humanity requires humanity consenting to being destroyed by the AI in some way. I don't think we're that dumb.

There's an episode of Star Trek TNG where Wesley Crusher is playing with some nanobots and he accidentally sets them free (or fails to turn them off?), and they go on to replicate, evolve and develop an emergent intelligence (at plot speed). Fortunately for the intrepid crew of the Enterprise, the nanocloud are benevolent enough to forgive their attempted destruction at the hands of a mission bent scientist and go off to explore the universe.

Anyway, that's not likely any time soon, but advancing technology advances the scale of mistakes that an individual can make without asking the rest of humanity what they think.

Re: The Software Revolution

#202

Post by maxmcd »

joesmo wrote: post #194

"Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea." It's terrible sure, but it's popular only because our economy requires it. That is the basis for the whole economy. It's not like people are clamoring to serve McDonalds for minimum wage or clean shit out bathrooms. They have no other choices in this economy. The economy demands it. While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and of…

I would assume SamA knows this. "Worthless" jobs are typically jobs that are actually valueless, but we continue to irresponsibly support their existence. My favorite example is break bulk shippers before the widespread adoption of containerization. Unions negotiated deals where workers would basically just stand around and get paid regardless of the complete lack of need.

The jobs you mention could eventually get to the point where they are actually worthless, ie: robot fast food workers, but I don't think anyone is arguing we're there yet.

Re: The Software Revolution

#203

Post by danbruc »

Why is it so common to fear developments obsoleting jobs? Wouldn't it be just awesome to automate everything? No jobs at all? I could easily fill several lives with interesting things, no need for a job. Granted, the transition period may be quite tough.

Re: The Software Revolution

#204

Post by sp332 »

jjoonathan wrote: post #195
sp332 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between a high school diploma and a bachelor's degree is halving the unemployment rate. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm

Yes, but if we could snap our fingers and educate everybody would the unemployment rate of the newly educated people halve? In other words, can the skilled labor market absorb the excess from the unskilled market without seeing a partially or fully compensating reduction in prices? It's not impossible but I have my doubts.

No, I don't think that educating more people will make educated people worth as little as uneducated people are now. Educated people are (on average!) more productive, so the economy will be larger and the average paycheck should go up.

Re: The Software Revolution

#205

Post by tormeh »

jjoonathan wrote: post #143
tormeh wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Free Market has been faced with this problem countless times, and each time the answer has been "the service sector". First we moved from agriculture to industry until agriculture, previously humanity's main occupation, became a small part of the economy. Now we move from manufacturing to services. It's not even a new phenomenon. It's been going on for a couple of decades now.

I would love to believe that the service sector will be able to absorb the displaced labor without creating insane, poisonous power dynamics that put large sections of the population into an unnecessarily horrible position. For the very reason that I would love to believe this, I am cautious. Do you know of any other reasons why I should let myself hold this belief? I don't find these very convincing: * Faith * Optim…

You're asking if the new jobs of tomorrow will suck harder than the McDonald's of today, and I really don't know. It's easy to assume that more essential, "useful", jobs will be better paid, but if you ask farmers you'll find out that that's not necessarily true. That said, while Notch may feel like he is king of the world right now, most indie game developers don't, I think.

Re: The Software Revolution

#206

Post by quaunaut »

YAYERKA wrote: post #196

>Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea. It seems warm and fuzzy to think Sam, and the implicit company he keeps (the ultra rich)--who are "leveraging not only their abilities and luck" but already accrued wealth--can and will redistribute it. Anyone who wasn't born yesterday will simply laugh at this prospect. I'm not sure why Sam feels the need to call what most of the world is doing wor…

The problem I take with this mindset, is that it treats all value systems as equal.

At the end of the day, if your culture and economic system create a poorer quality of life for its people consistently, just because it wins out in the percentage of employed citizens doesn't mean a thing. You're treating the lack of disease as a measuring stick of health, when it's simply one piece of the puzzle.

I think the thing Sam has been trying to do for the last few years, is get others to think about the ways we can enrich more lives as a whole, without just slowing labor and progress in its totality- because while that can work for the short term, it can severely inhibit us in the long term to eradicate things like hunger, disease, or poverty.

The thing you also need to be careful of along the way though, is not making perfect the enemy of good.

Re: The Software Revolution

#207

Post by xanderstrike »

gaius wrote: post #126
xj9 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I dunno, learn to read, find out what modern work they find interesting, get an education, &c. Just because somebody is only qualified to do manual labor now doesn't mean they don't have other talents/abilities. I did manual labor for a long time before I made the gamble to jump into software development. I had the luck to see it work out, but society can provide resources to help people move into more fulfilling…

That is certainly one point of view but the legions of highly educated unemployed in Western nations suggest that it isn't actually true.

Educated vs. Skilled

Lots of people have college degrees in fields where jobs simply do not exist. Bachelors in Philosophy, Women's Studies, or Underwater Basket Weaving are admirable but do nothing to prepare you to get a job. Most people who study in fields that don't directly correlate to a job end up having a career in an irrelevant field after on-the-job training.

Being educated and unemployed just means that you probably didn't need to go to college anyway.

Re: The Software Revolution

#209

Post by swalsh »

joesmo wrote: post #194

"Trying to hold on to worthless jobs is a terrible but popular idea." It's terrible sure, but it's popular only because our economy requires it. That is the basis for the whole economy. It's not like people are clamoring to serve McDonalds for minimum wage or clean shit out bathrooms. They have no other choices in this economy. The economy demands it. While those jobs might be necessary, most middle management and of…

synthetic biology does exist, just look at this: http://www.genomecompiler.com/

Also look at this: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-...

It's only been since 2010 that we've known how to actually do it, but the technology exists. Pandora's box has been opened.

AI development isn't science fiction either. GPU's + convolutional neural networks have been enabling radical developments in the area.

I think both of these developments have a whole bunch of potential to make our society drastically better. However there's a bunch of potential threats they represent, and it makes sense to be thinking about counter measures for those threats at the same time we develop the tech.

Re: The Software Revolution

#210

Post by tormeh »

mordae wrote: post #141
tormeh wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Free Market has been faced with this problem countless times, and each time the answer has been "the service sector". First we moved from agriculture to industry until agriculture, previously humanity's main occupation, became a small part of the economy. Now we move from manufacturing to services. It's not even a new phenomenon. It's been going on for a couple of decades now.

Not really, even the service sector is being heavily optimized these days. What are we going to do once we optimize away banks and real estate agents?

Live entertainment and ever fancier dining, I suppose. Also pointless luxury goods and fashion. We'll find something to spend our money on and the jobs will move there.
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