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U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

scientificamerican.com

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Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#11

Post by toomuchtodo »

Retric wrote: post #5
jbattle wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you happen to know if there are there realistic risks of permanent desertification of the great plains? (like what happened to the sahara) Or does that involve changes of a more dramatic sort than 'less rain'?

That was what was happening in during the dust bowl. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl In the end we solved the problem mostly though trees (wind breaks) and a lot of geologic water. But long term some large scale irrigation can also solve the problem. PS: There are also farming methods that mitigate the issue while using far less water ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dryland_farming ), but they are still not nea…

Over a 50-100 year timeline, I envision us using cheap renewable energy to replenish massive aquifers. While it seems far fetched, the US has the strategic oil reserve for times of need. Why would we ever consider water less strategic than fuel?

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#12

Post by jdcskillet »

acadien wrote: post #7
ChuckMcM wrote: post #6

I am greatly encouraged by operations such as this one: http://www.montereycountyweekly.com/archives/2014/0227/upsta... which is pushing aquaponics. A lot less net water use and plenty of food.

The downside being its not scalable. You need an entirely artificial setup to get aquaponics up and running, motors, pipes, and chemical cleaning. Don't get me wrong aquaponics is a great technology, I think it needs some changes in order to make it feasible for the large scale.

The scale is achieved through the local communities. I understand we would still need large scale farming ventures, but local communities can use aquaponics to be more self-sufficient. A large "regular" ag business can support many smaller satellite aquaponic setups. Much like a distributed computing system achieves scale.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#13

Post by ChuckMcM »

acadien wrote: post #7
ChuckMcM wrote: post #6

I am greatly encouraged by operations such as this one: http://www.montereycountyweekly.com/archives/2014/0227/upsta... which is pushing aquaponics. A lot less net water use and plenty of food.

The downside being its not scalable. You need an entirely artificial setup to get aquaponics up and running, motors, pipes, and chemical cleaning. Don't get me wrong aquaponics is a great technology, I think it needs some changes in order to make it feasible for the large scale.

That is what they are tackling, the scalable aspects. Their goal is to get to thousands of equivalent acres and they are looking at the places where the system runs into scaling issues. I don't know if they will be successful but they have a heck of a start.

In one of those interesting coincidences there is a well funded and ready market for intermediate versions from the marijuana folks as well. There are a number of venture firms putting money in that space.

When my wife did the solar panel installation boot camp (back in 2001) (a week of training followed by work on a job site installing panels) roughly half the students were there from pot farms as well.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#14

Post by cryptoz »

happyscrappy wrote: post #8
cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

>I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain." Um, there is quite a difference between weather forecasting and climate forecasting. The linked article deals with conditions in the second half of the century.

Yes, I'm aware. I do intend to be working on improved weather forecasting all century long. Forecasting the weather in a time of continent-scale drought is a different ballgame entirely, compared to weather forecasting today.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#15

Post by acadien »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #13
acadien wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downside being its not scalable. You need an entirely artificial setup to get aquaponics up and running, motors, pipes, and chemical cleaning. Don't get me wrong aquaponics is a great technology, I think it needs some changes in order to make it feasible for the large scale.

That is what they are tackling, the scalable aspects. Their goal is to get to thousands of equivalent acres and they are looking at the places where the system runs into scaling issues. I don't know if they will be successful but they have a heck of a start. In one of those interesting coincidences there is a well funded and ready market for intermediate versions from the marijuana folks as well. There are a number o…

Yeah the marijuana community always seems to be on the cutting edge of growing technology, much the same way the gaming community often leads use of cutting computing technology.

Anyways, a 'thousands of acres equivalent' solution would be absolutely fascinating to see implemented.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#16

Post by qeorge »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #6

I am greatly encouraged by operations such as this one: http://www.montereycountyweekly.com/archives/2014/0227/upsta... which is pushing aquaponics. A lot less net water use and plenty of food.

MMM has an excellent guest post on how to get started with aquaponics here: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2014/10/20/aquaponics/

The author is selling his "Zero To Hero" design plans for a shockingly reasonable $10 here: http://www.frostyfish.com/shop/aquaponics-plans-2/zero-hero-...

And if you want to buy a 4x8 kit, he also has that for about $400: http://www.coldweatheraquaponics.com/shop/aeration-2/zero-he...

I've been wanting to try it, but have not as of yet.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#18

Post by dylanz »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #17

Surprised permaculture isnt being talked about more. These guys are making beautiful green land out of deserts. ex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1rKDXuZ8C0

I worked with Geoff at his farm in AU, and he's done some amazing work there. His swale and pond layout, as well as the food forestry corridors for his animals are spectacular. Large scale implementation of arid desert techniques from the Permaculture handbook is one thing that definitely needs to be looked into.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#19

Post by golergka »

Retric wrote: post #3
cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

The US produces several times more food than we need. A single acre can easily produce enough food for a small family and we have 408 million acres under cultivation. Corn is something of a super star at 8,250 lb. of corn per acre. However, we end up feeding most of this to animals which drastically reduces overall efficiency. So, sure we are going to spend a lot of effort maximizing food production. But a 50% drop i…

So, essentially, meat will get pricier and people will switch to eating more vegetables? Nothing to be cheerful about, but at least it sounds better than scenarios I thought about right after reading the article.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#20

Post by golergka »

acadien wrote: post #15
ChuckMcM wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is what they are tackling, the scalable aspects. Their goal is to get to thousands of equivalent acres and they are looking at the places where the system runs into scaling issues. I don't know if they will be successful but they have a heck of a start. In one of those interesting coincidences there is a well funded and ready market for intermediate versions from the marijuana folks as well. There are a number o…

Yeah the marijuana community always seems to be on the cutting edge of growing technology, much the same way the gaming community often leads use of cutting computing technology. Anyways, a 'thousands of acres equivalent' solution would be absolutely fascinating to see implemented.

Also reminds how porn industry is often on the cutting edge on content delivery and analytics as well.
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