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blog.samaltman.com

251–260 of 317 posts

Re: China

#251
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the typical rhetoric of "China is bad because it steals innovation!" is usually misplaced. From China's perspective, there is nothing wrong with "stealing innovation," as this model has helped grow China's economy and lift millions out of poverty over the past few decades. The diffusion of information does not produce the same "value" as the production of information itself, but from China's perspective this…

To coin a proverb, "There is nothing wrong with stealing innovation until you steal the life from that which creates it." China, culturally, does not innovate or foster the mindset of problem solving or collaboration that is visible in highly innovative - honestly innovative - environments. That's why, anecdotally speaking, several major science journals do not accept papers from Chinese higher education facilities,…

I thought it was more like "there is nothing wrong with stealing innovation until its your own innovation that is stolen." As China climbs the tech ladder and have more to lose than win by stealing, I'm sure they'll become believers in IP.

There is already some bias in CS conferences with respect to Chinese submissions, which is why in blind review we take great care to "hide" our nationality (I'm not Chinese, but work in China and publish paper with Chinese). It really isn't fair, since there is some really good research going on in China, but it gets drowned out by a few bad apples.

Re: China

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A better question is why America became a super-power in the first place? I think many of the assumptions of American exceptionalism are not root causes, as the majority of the reasons for why America, and the west in general, have risen to global domination are embedded in, how should I put it, conflict creation, and not conflict resolution. The west has benefited tremendously from the deliberate, and sometimes acci…

These are good points but I would disagree specifically that other nations want "a more equal world". My take is that they want to wear the crown next, not share it.

Well a more equal world is in the economic interests of those nation, because it will allow them far greater power than they currently have. However a multipolar world is not in favor of the US as it will mean that there's greater competition. Greater competition means that USA has decreased political capabilities, way less influence in geopolitical matters, and a decreased ability to "protect American interests", we can already see this happening to an extent.

BRICs banding together amongst each other to create economic prosperity is the only means for these countries to increase their living standards, and so cooperation is incentivized.

Competition is a zero sum game for these countries, and they know that.

Here's an interesting article. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/in-rday-mes...

Re: China

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, for example, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-exam-cheats/ Note that this particular exam was taken by 25,000 people, so that's almost ten percent.

Thanks for the reference, at least you cared to search and show it! 10% of 25,000 for that particular exam does sound a lot, and that's probably why it made national news in the first place. Does it mean 10% of all Chinese students (in China) cheat? Is it a proof that "Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic."? Definitely Not. I can find way more examples where 0% of Chinese students cheat in national level exams…

Yeah, this is why I didn't bother constructing a more robust argument showing the clear trend. Consider that you may be unwilling to entertain the possibility that this phenomenon actually exists.

Re: China

#254

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

A better question is why America became a super-power in the first place? I think many of the assumptions of American exceptionalism are not root causes, as the majority of the reasons for why America, and the west in general, have risen to global domination are embedded in, how should I put it, conflict creation, and not conflict resolution. The west has benefited tremendously from the deliberate, and sometimes acci…

Conflict creation for profit is something inherent to humans, not the West alone. We are predators, we eat bunnies, and because bunnies don't kill us in return, we think that it is ok.

For example, Spanish conquered South and Central America, but the people that lived there were not conflict free. In fact, if you compare Spanish with Mayans that will extract the heart out of their alive enemies, or their skin, Spanish were saints in comparison.

Spanish used the help of subordinates Indians to remove the people in power.

Let's not talk about China's History: it is probably as violent or more violent than the West's. For certain intrigues were way more sophisticated as central planning was way bigger.

We can mention Shaka Zulu, or Muslims in Africa.

The main difference was technology advancing so fast as to make non west people bunnies in comparison. Arrows against repetition rifles, or tanks and planes against horses.

Re: China

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just look at: I'd like to add: - how many people are in prisons (for imho minor offences) - screwed up (software) patent system - amount of money wasted on NSA - stale two party government - homeland security paranoia

> - stale two party government Stale one-party government?

Stale zero party regime...

There's always worse. US became a shadow of waht it should and could have been.

Re: China

#256
I disagree with literally everything said in this article.

Virtually every point the author makes is based on false assumptions, inaccurate information, a misunderstanding or other fallacies.

I really, really didn't want to break it down point by point, and I still don't, but I'm going to tackle the most obvious ones. Keep in mind I don't get them all, there are more than what I list here. I've included sources for some of my claims at the bottom:

- "US growth has stagnated while Chinese growth has continued to do pretty well"

Sure, if you account for the fact that it's not organic growth. Their growth is meticulously planned and executed. They have entire ghost cities which still remain vacant. Approximately 64 million apartments and houses in China are empty and have never been lived in before. There was just an article on Forbes on how they're now starting to fall into disrepair.

China's growth isn't like any other countries' growth and shouldn't be compared as such. Their growth is hollow and empty. They're literally reporting what they want to attract investors and say "See how well we're doing?" That's not fortitude, it's something else.

- "there countries have surpassed our education system"

Public education or higher education? There's a huge difference. You can't lump them together, it's misleading to the point of being inaccurate. In terms of higher education, nobody beats the US. They house 7 of the top 10 ranked universities in the world. The UK has the other 3.

- "The historical track record of the largest economy being overtaken by another is not good."

Irrelevant. Prior examples are absolutely no comparison to the global economy of today. Back then, the "global" economy was non-existent. There were also no nukes, no internet and there wasn't a singular sole superpower. We're now in uncharted territory.

- "The US gets huge advantages from being the world’s largest economy"

It also has its own drawbacks which you don't even touch on. And it also became the largest economy in the world for a reason, because people trust the U.S and its dollar. People invest in the U.S because they see that the country, economy and currency has value and fortitude. Even during the last recession, the damage was minimal despite ignorant people predicting the dollar would vanish after the U.S economy crashes. The only way that would happen is if the country itself vanished, due to war or a large asteroid destroying the continent. Plenty of rich and powerful (non-American) people/entities/corporations have a vested interest in a stable global market. If only because it makes them more money. In the end, that's all that matters. Stability is almost always good for business. That's why the U.S dollar will never "crash and burn". Because the only person who wants it to are your prototypical libertarian anarchists still living with their mothers.

- "The current business model of the US requires the dollar to be the world reserve currency, though the Chinese currency is rapidly becoming a viable alternative. "

Any country that either manipulates or artificially keeps its currency low to help itself (As China does to keep its export market competitive) to the extent China does, will never hold the title of world's reserve currency. The biggest and most obvious issue is one of corruption and trust. Can you really trust China to act fairly with your billions/trillions? To not artificially screw with their currency and/or banks to benefit themselves? Of course not, China only cares about China. No major player is going to unpeg their currency from the dollar to go to a currency with less stability and more corruption. It's simply a lesser of two evils situation and the U.S has proven to be the go-to currency for years, weathering even the worst storms.

- "At some point, China will relax its currency controls, allowing trade and offshore investment to grow rapidly."

And causing their own economy to tank as their export market completely dries up as India or other southeast Asian countries pick up the slack. Adding to that is their populace demanding higher wages. They see what's out there, they too, want the latest Ipad. You can't have borderline slave labor forever. At some point, you have to advance and evolve. And when the export market dries up, so will the jobs. When the jobs dry up, well, you know what happens...

- "whether or not it’s possible for one country to remain as powerful as another with four times as many people."

Using your logic, you shouldn't be talking about China, but instead India. They're set to overtake China. China is also going to experience what's known as the China Crunch sometime around 2030 (due to their 1 child policy).

- "The US should try very hard to find a way to grow faster."

Growing for the sake of growing is dumb. You're spending resources, time and energy on something that really, ultimately doesn't mean anything. We're not playing a game and there's no final score when the game ends. We should instead focus on bettering ourselves as a nation. If that means we grow as a side-effect, so be it. If it means we shrink, then that's ok too.

I think my father said it best, stop worrying about what everyone else is doing and worry about yourself.

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/nobodys-home-the-ghost-cities-...

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/oct/02/world-t...

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/21/news/economy/india-china-fas...

Re: China

#257
The following quote says a lot more about Sam Altman, the people he hangs out with, and his lack of exposure to mainstream media and political discourse than it says about objective reality:

As a related sidenote, “exceptionalism” in the US has become almost a bad word—it’s bad to talk about an individual being exceptionally good, and certainly bad to talk about the country as a whole being exceptional.

Re: China

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. People forget that China has twice the population of United States and European Union combined . It's often silly to treat them all as one uniform group.

I once had a friend say something about how the Chinese valued hard work. Then I asked him what cultures don't value hard work. He squirmed as he started ticking off a list of countries whose populations are predominantly black/Latino...

Hence the need to separate the concepts of culture and race, rather than using them interchangeably the way we do now.

Re: China

#259

Should the goal of the US be to emulate happy, stable, wealthy, smaller economies but arguably more egalitarian northern European democracies? Or rather, should we chase China in a race to the bottom? Lower corporate taxes, longer working hours, reduced environmental protections, with the goal of creating a fabulously wealthy klepto-capitalist ruling class? How dare people criticize kids burning the candle at both en…

You can't have endless impressive growth. Once you're developed its going to hit a reasonable cap. China is still developing. You can't compare the most mature economy to one of least developed. The move from back-breaking farm labor all day to manufacturing is MASSIVE growth. The problem with Western democracies is that we moved past that stage over 100 years ago. Now we're in a service based economy. That just does…

> Geeks always seem to worship autocrats and dictators for whatever reason.

That's not entirely true, there are also plenty of libertarian geeks (including here on HN).

Re: China

#260

Speaking from personal experience, the atmosphere in the U.S. is a lot better than in China, in terms of the recognition of importance and respect to science and technology fields as well as scientists and engineers. I feel an implicit discrimination towards engineers in Chinese culture in the sense that "you are regarded successful if you hold a management position and live a (perceived) decent lifestyle, but not if…

All of that also seems true of the US. Everyone wants a "leadership" role, either in government or in the private sector as CEOs or management in general, and even schools nurture students into "leadership" more than "science". Even in Silicon Valley, engineers and scientists don't enjoy the highest status (founders are above them, and VCs above that).

Arguably, the only place in the US where scientists are on the top of the food chain (or close to) is academia.

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