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blog.samaltman.com

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121–130 of 317 posts

Re: China

#121

Post by 3pt14159 »

cryoshon wrote: post #96
random28345 wrote: post #12

Should the goal of the US be to emulate happy, stable, wealthy, smaller economies but arguably more egalitarian northern European democracies? Or rather, should we chase China in a race to the bottom? Lower corporate taxes, longer working hours, reduced environmental protections, with the goal of creating a fabulously wealthy klepto-capitalist ruling class? How dare people criticize kids burning the candle at both en…

We've already chosen the race to the bottom, friend. The Chinese have a head start, but don't worry, we're following as closely as we can manage and as our nation-specific bonus we already have the klepto-capitalist class in place.

Oh please. The US public spending as a percent of GDP is around Canada's: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending

And almost double Chinas. Even after you take out the military there is no basis in saying that the US has raced to the bottom.

Re: China

#122

Post by mikeash »

chiph wrote: post #3

China has 3 times the population of the US. As soon as they started growing a middle class, it was inevitable that this would happen.

Note that it's actually 4x larger population. 322 million versus 1.36 billion at the moment.

Re: China

#123

Post by adventured »

China is also the most indebted country in world history, and has acquired that mantle at a faster pace than any other country in history.

http://i.imgur.com/iwarkOm.png

From everything I've seen in the financial press about their rapid accumulation of shadow debt, the situation is even worse than that chart reveals.

So at at a time when robots are set to overtake human labor, China's demographics are rapidly aging, and they lack even a meaningful social safety net - you want me to buy the bogus claim that China is about to become the next dominant economy? Not a chance in hell.

In another five years they'll likely have accumulated another $20 to $30 trillion in new debt, all going toward faking economic growth so they can pretend their economy didn't stop growing six years ago when the global consumer crashed.

Back in reality, accounting for real inflation, and accounting for their need to leverage extreme debt to fake growth, China's economy is not growing at all, and is most likely headed toward decades of Japan style stagnation - in a best case scenario.

Worst case scenario, they get old way before they get rich (guaranteed), their 400-500 million farmers revolt as their future potential goes sideways, robots take half their manual labor jobs, they stack up $80 trillion in debt (on a third rate currency that nobody trusts even today), and collapse into social chaos and revolution, as the party fails to deliver on decades of promises.

Those 400-500 million farmers? China should have maybe 15 to 25 million farmers. So they have 400+ million unemployed persons the Chinese system is intentionally holding in stagnation to avoid upheaval, because there's zero chance China can create half a billion new jobs, much less at a time when the age of robotics is upon us.

Re: China

#124

Post by SystemOut »

Afforess wrote: post #55

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

I'd echo the comment of the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. I managed a group in China for a few years and they come in at the listed start time and exit and the listed end time in the job description. They're precise, I'll give them that. But are they harder workers? No, I don't think they are. They work differently than Americans (if that is your sphere of knowledge) and maybe that's where the misinterpretation is coming from.

Re: China

#125

Post by prewett »

I think idea of the RMB being a reserve currency is laughable. It's controlled by an authoritarian government whose only history with the currency is to manipulate it in their favor. And said government has repeatedly made it difficult for foreign companies to do business in the country. Why anyone would think that people would trust such a currency is beyond me.

Re: China

#126

Post by api »

Alex3917 wrote: post #117
Afforess wrote: post #55

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

> Contrast this with the American culture of honesty; fraud and cheating are national scandals, not the norm. Fraud is basically the biggest national industry in the U.S. Just look at: - The 30% of all medical spending that is wasted. - The rise of for-profit colleges with super low graduation rates and even worse employment prospects. Same with law schools. - The fact that the majority of people who graduate high sc…

All that is true, but most of that except maybe the infrastructure stuff is worse in China.

(I have relatives who live there.)

Re: China

#127

Post by fazzone »

tsurantino wrote: post #101
kirse wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's growth has long since been an organism that feeds on the back of the gorilla of US growth. If the US economy would hit a major recession, China would come crashing down with it. On the other hand, if the Chinese economy would have a major collapse, the US would suffer, but still be able to re-route core-value manufacturing processes to new countries (or back home). I agree with your cheating note, many of the…

I completely disagree with your notion that U.S. is less interdependent than China. The exchange is clear: U.S. needs cheap Chinese manufacturing to proliferate its innovation, and in turn, China gets direct access to U.S. blueprints, and is able to leverage and improve upon them to produce their own products. This is basic economics, not a question of "who is genuinely innovating". American companies need cheap manu…

I agree. In fact, it is almost like the market has figured out 'a way for both countries to work on what they're really good at' (paraphrasing TFA). "Governments that at least partially cooperate," on the other hand, I agree would be a welcome change.

Re: China

#128

Post by ryanSrich »

sama wrote: post #13
akavi wrote: post #7

> One thing that I’ve found puzzling over the last ten or so years is the anger directed towards people who choose to work hard That feels somewhat disingenuous. If 'sama is referring to the sentiments expressed on this board, from what I've seen, it's not anger towards people choosing to work hard, but anger towards demands of hard work of others from those who stand to benefit at their expense. Ie, the anger is tow…

Certainly working really hard without an expectation of being compensated it (either with equity or cash) is dumb. I've argued a lot that startups should give employees more equity, and I think that's shifting. Also, most startups I'm aware of, at least in the bay area, pay large salaries at this point.

> pay large salaries at this point

I'd have to disagree. At least based on my definition of large and my experience interviewing in the Valley.

For example: If you're making X amount of salary and paying $1500 for a one bedroom in Big City Y, you'd have to make at _least_ $24k more in SV if you wanted a comparable one bedroom apartment. It's probably even more than that as I don't know anyone paying less than $3k for a one bedroom within 10 miles of SF.

For a junior dev making $80k in Austin who is moving to SV, getting that $20k bump is certainly plausible and in the above scenario would work out fine.

But what about a family of 4? They need a 3 bedroom house. How in the world is that family going to make enough to afford a house northing of $1m? How much would that person have to make to even support half the cost of their houehold? $200k? $400k? Those types of salaries just aren't happening at startups.

Re: China

#129

Post by drt1245 »

marcusgarvey wrote: post #71

Why ignore the elephant in the room? The U.S. is more unequal than it has been since before WWII [1], and that is a big reason why its growth is stagnating.[2] It's time to stop taking seriously any analyses that do not address this. [1] http://www.epi.org/publication/income-inequality-by-state-19... [2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/income-inequa...

https://www.google.com/search?q=china+income+inequality

If that was the case, China's growth would be stagnating as well. Not everything is caused by income inequality.

Re: China

#130

Post by paulhauggis »

breckinloggins wrote: post #5

After listening to a recent episode of Invisibilia, I've become somewhat convinced that one of the root ills of current American society is extremely low expectations . Whenever I think of countries like China, I think of an entire population driven to be more excellent. I know that's not true in general (people are people everywhere), but I still feel there is a stronger expectation that, as a human, you will do mor…

"I think of an entire population driven to be more excellent."

People are driven to excellence, but only because if you aren't, you face a lifetime of working on a farm your entire life or in extreme poverty. It's a good motivator.

Men especially focus on excellence (and making money) because the 1-child rule has pretty much given women the pick of the men with the most money and are the most successful. Another good motivator.

"America feels sluggish to me... safe and dumb and comfortable but not content. It's like the feeling I get when I spend an entire weekend on the couch binge-watching Netflix."

It's only 'sluggish' because most people have a very good standard of living and rather than focusing on their next meal, can actually enjoy some leisure time. If you compare this to some of the wealthier people in Shanghai or Beijing, it's the same.

"I've become somewhat convinced that one of the root ills of current American society is extremely low expectations."

This has been happening for years. Especially to our education system. What do you think happens when kids are taught that "Everybody is a winner" and they are shielded from the realities of competition and life?

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