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blog.samaltman.com

61–70 of 317 posts

Re: China

#61
It seems like people are advocating for centralized solutions to "problems". But after recently reading Mitchel Resnick's book _Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams_, I can't but help wondering what decentralized solutions might look like?

Here's a piece by him describing "decentralized" more: http://hci.ucsd.edu/102a/readings/LearningAboutLifeAnnotated...

Edit: And here's a similiar non-PDF piece: http://web.media.mit.edu/~mres/papers/JLS/JLS-1.0.html

Re: China

#62
post #39
post #7

> One thing that I’ve found puzzling over the last ten or so years is the anger directed towards people who choose to work hard That feels somewhat disingenuous. If 'sama is referring to the sentiments expressed on this board, from what I've seen, it's not anger towards people choosing to work hard, but anger towards demands of hard work of others from those who stand to benefit at their expense. Ie, the anger is tow…

I disagree. I think he is talking about the general 'anti-workaholic' attitude. I see it all the time and have personally been called out for wanting to work too much. I don't know enough about China's culture, but I know in America it is looked down upon to work non stop even if it is just for a few years of a person's life.

For good reason. It is both unhealthy and inefficient to work massive amounts of hours. There are multiple studies that show that overall productivity increases when you don't work over 40 hours a week.

Re: China

#63
post #19
post #11

> “It’s so stupid that these people play the startup lottery. What idiots. They should just consult.” or “Startups need to stop glorifying young workers that can work all day and night” No-one quite says that working hard is stupid (well, except the few misguided ones we should all ignore anyway). What people go tsk, tsk, tsk at is working really hard and giving up responsibilities at home, not being with you family,…

Calling it a lottery is silly. I know some people who would have close to a 100% chance of getting into YC if they applied. I know other people who would have close to a 0% chance. It's not random.

It isn't random, but it sure isn't a guarantee that being smart and working hard will pay off either. If it must be compared to some game, I guess poker would be more apt than a lottery.

If you're smart, and work hard you can make the right moves to put yourself in an improved position for possible success, but ultimately you are still playing odds with lots of variables that are completely out of your control and even if you play "perfectly" it is entirely possible you still fail.

In poker you can deal with this variance via bankroll management, for which the startup version would be not to invest too much of yourself (emotionally and/or physically) in any one startup. However, the culture around startups (unlike the culture around smart poker play) does not promote that at all, rather it tends to promote a leave-everything-on-the-floor approach... which, IMO, is the sort of position most people are really complaining about when they say things such as what sama paraphrased in the article.

Re: China

#64

Should the goal of the US be to emulate happy, stable, wealthy, smaller economies but arguably more egalitarian northern European democracies? Or rather, should we chase China in a race to the bottom? Lower corporate taxes, longer working hours, reduced environmental protections, with the goal of creating a fabulously wealthy klepto-capitalist ruling class? How dare people criticize kids burning the candle at both en…

You can't have endless impressive growth. Once you're developed its going to hit a reasonable cap. China is still developing. You can't compare the most mature economy to one of least developed. The move from back-breaking farm labor all day to manufacturing is MASSIVE growth. The problem with Western democracies is that we moved past that stage over 100 years ago. Now we're in a service based economy. That just does…

Completely agreed. Most of China's growth has been from moving people from agriculture to manufacturing. Essentially activating its giant labor force to compete on price. This has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, it's still not entirely clear if China will be able to avoid the middle income trap that many countries seem to get stuck in as labor becomes more expensive and they aren't able to compete on price anymore.

Re: China

#65
post #13
post #7

> One thing that I’ve found puzzling over the last ten or so years is the anger directed towards people who choose to work hard That feels somewhat disingenuous. If 'sama is referring to the sentiments expressed on this board, from what I've seen, it's not anger towards people choosing to work hard, but anger towards demands of hard work of others from those who stand to benefit at their expense. Ie, the anger is tow…

Certainly working really hard without an expectation of being compensated it (either with equity or cash) is dumb. I've argued a lot that startups should give employees more equity, and I think that's shifting. Also, most startups I'm aware of, at least in the bay area, pay large salaries at this point.

I suppose the sentiments of people who say "don't work hard" can vary. Many people tie working 'hard' to hours put in. I will say there are many schools of thought on this. If I am super focused and work 'hard' for 30 hours a week and enjoy my life the rest of week, how is my productivity and creativity compared to someone who puts in 70 hours? Are they really out-competing me? What does the research show on this, compared to anecdotally stating "All successful startups that I observe work hard at all hours, therefore this is THE way"? You are one of a small group of people that could make this observation. Just because that is common in successful companies, doesn't mean it is the best way.

Re: China

#66
post #39
post #7

> One thing that I’ve found puzzling over the last ten or so years is the anger directed towards people who choose to work hard That feels somewhat disingenuous. If 'sama is referring to the sentiments expressed on this board, from what I've seen, it's not anger towards people choosing to work hard, but anger towards demands of hard work of others from those who stand to benefit at their expense. Ie, the anger is tow…

I disagree. I think he is talking about the general 'anti-workaholic' attitude. I see it all the time and have personally been called out for wanting to work too much. I don't know enough about China's culture, but I know in America it is looked down upon to work non stop even if it is just for a few years of a person's life.

If you a working non-stop on the order of years you both 1) Dont know what the fuck you are doing 2) are on a path to kill yourself.

Re: China

#67

Regarding exceptionalism, I had a course in law school taught by Justice Scalia. His first words were, "I believe in American exceptionalism and if you don't, you can find the door." His intentions were to provoke us and he was baiting a brave law student to disagree with him. Required reading for the course included De Tocqueville's - Democracy in America - as to "leave it to a Frenchman to explain America to Americ…

That's really interesting. Did he expound on why he thought this was the case? I agree; as sama said, the volume of inventions made here are highly disproportionate to the population share. Laser, semiconductor, airplane, assembly line, nuclear power, etc. I think two of the key drivers were the form of government (a republic "by and for the people") and a demographic boon of immigrants willing to work themselves to the bone for a better life, because they believed in equality of opportunity.

Ironically, I think he has had a big hand in the decline of the former with the Citizens United decision. And the equality of opportunity has been in decline for decades.

Re: China

#68

After listening to a recent episode of Invisibilia, I've become somewhat convinced that one of the root ills of current American society is extremely low expectations . Whenever I think of countries like China, I think of an entire population driven to be more excellent. I know that's not true in general (people are people everywhere), but I still feel there is a stronger expectation that, as a human, you will do mor…

Maybe you're projecting your own lifestyle onto the entirety of society. Honest question: Have you been to China?

Re: China

#69
post #19
post #11

> “It’s so stupid that these people play the startup lottery. What idiots. They should just consult.” or “Startups need to stop glorifying young workers that can work all day and night” No-one quite says that working hard is stupid (well, except the few misguided ones we should all ignore anyway). What people go tsk, tsk, tsk at is working really hard and giving up responsibilities at home, not being with you family,…

Calling it a lottery is silly. I know some people who would have close to a 100% chance of getting into YC if they applied. I know other people who would have close to a 0% chance. It's not random.

Just because you have some outliers doesn't mean it isn't random. As long as you're good but not the best of the best of the best, it's random pretty much by definition. An old pg's essay covers it well: http://paulgraham.com/judgement.html.

Re: China

#70
post #14

> People generally have to buy energy (oil) in our currency, which adds a great deal of support (though we’ve already seen the very beginnings of the PetroYuan). Can someone explain why using USD as a medium of exchange supports the USD? I can see this effect insofar as central banks will hold a trade-weighted basket of currencies and having more trade in USD will increase that share of the basket. Other than this ef…

While products that can only be purchased with dollars are in demand there will always be commensurate demand for those dollars. Demand for iPhones supports the dollar in the same way, though in a less directly obvious manner.

I understand that products and services sold by US companies boost USD (vis-a-vis buying iPhones in your example), but why would, say, a Brit buying a Xiaomi phone using USD boost the USD? The USD holding time would be rather short, I would imagine.
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