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blog.samaltman.com

51–60 of 317 posts

Re: China

#51
What's interesting is that it's very common for wealthy Chinese to invest in / move their families and their money into the States. Just look at places like Seattle, where around one-third of all $1+ homes are purchased by foreign Chinese, and according to this NYT article, three-quarters of their purchases are all cash. *

* http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/business/in-suburban-seatt...

Re: China

#52
A third of China's population are still farmers -- compared to the US's low single digits. It's per capita GDP is somewhere around Peru's and Iraq's. While this has been rapidly changing, it is yet to be seen how much of China's rapid growth the last couple of years is propped up by government malinvestment (ghost cities, etc.). We've seen high growth rates in many countries throughout history. The question is whether this is sustainable, and how much of the low-hanging fruit of growth China has already used up.

Re: China

#53
post #41
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly working really hard without an expectation of being compensated it (either with equity or cash) is dumb. I've argued a lot that startups should give employees more equity, and I think that's shifting. Also, most startups I'm aware of, at least in the bay area, pay large salaries at this point.

"Also, most startups I'm aware of, at least in the bay area, pay large salaries at this point." ... which is all soaked up by real estate hyperinflation.

This is probably the single biggest factor that's keeping me from moving out to CA. There's a lot of great companies out there and I think I could learn a lot but I also don't want to go broke.

Edit: How are people making it without a really high salary or living with three other people?

Re: China

#54
I wish I was a high-profile VC. Then I too would be writing essays exhorting people to take on high amounts of risk and to spend their 20s and 30s grinding through 60 hour workweeks, so I could grow my portfolio. Because, we're losing to China!

Honestly, it has never been clear to me why "growth" was the metric that we, as a society, have been optimizing for. Who stands to benefit? You? The middle class? Everyone? Or... wealthy investors and a few lucky founders?

Why not focus on, say, average income per citizen (adjusted for purchasing power)? Or even more radical, why not stop using money as a proxy for wealth, and start optimizing for average citizen well-being? Is China beating us on that point?

Or why not see further and optimize for the growth of our scientific knowledge and our technological capabilities?

Economic growth is generally praised because it is a weak proxy for things such as the wealth of a society (assumed to be well distributed) and its technological progress. So why not directly aim for these core goals?

Re: China

#55
I disagree with a lot of this.

The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with the American culture of honesty; fraud and cheating are national scandals, not the norm.

Second, the US currency is the world reserve currency because the world trusts that the US will keep paying interest on the debts. A trillion dollar debt is not actually that large, and this is reflected in the near-zero interest rates on treasury bonds. If there was a belief in the market that America would no longer be able to pay off the debts, interest rates would be sky-high. But the opposite is true. The national debt is just a talking point for people who don't understand economics. (The largest owner of American debt is...America!)

Finally, I am unsure what evidence there is that the US culture has moved away from innovation, risk-taking, etc. If anything, there are many more entrepreneurs today than there ever has been before; the maker movement, youtube celebrities, and startup culture is evidence of a growing number of people who are not employees of large corporations, but independent businesses.

Re: China

#56

Speaking from personal experience, the atmosphere in the U.S. is a lot better than in China, in terms of the recognition of importance and respect to science and technology fields as well as scientists and engineers. I feel an implicit discrimination towards engineers in Chinese culture in the sense that "you are regarded successful if you hold a management position and live a (perceived) decent lifestyle, but not if…

> implicit discrimination towards engineers

Never. There is discrimination on social status in China, which is determined by wealth.

> In Chinese college, the "elite majors" including cooperation and government management usually have the highest bar of admission.

This is not true anymore.

Re: China

#57
As a native Chinese (I'm tired to claim this every time when commenting on China related topics.), I think the op needs to do a lot more homework on China. It's not an easy task to know something you are not familiar with with just numbers, even if one has more than enough numbers.

Re: China

#58

Should the goal of the US be to emulate happy, stable, wealthy, smaller economies but arguably more egalitarian northern European democracies? Or rather, should we chase China in a race to the bottom? Lower corporate taxes, longer working hours, reduced environmental protections, with the goal of creating a fabulously wealthy klepto-capitalist ruling class? How dare people criticize kids burning the candle at both en…

I wish I could upvote this more than once. American insecurities about China seem to come from people who don't understand how unenviable China's position is. The country is authoritarian, polluted, crowded, and corrupt. People in China work hard because living in China really, really sucks if you are poor. Members of the wealthy ruling class all own property overseas and send their kids to university overseas. They made their money from owning manufacturing companies that sell goods to American brands. There isn't much of a middle class because white-collar jobs in China are so limited and pay so poorly because so many college graduates are competing for them.

There is literally nothing about China's economic system that would be appropriate for the US to try to emulate. We need to look to Northern Europe if we're looking for an example to model our system after.

Re: China

#59
> The other stark contrast is how much harder people in China seem to work than people here, and how working hard is considered a good thing, not a bad thing.

It is a survival thing, not an inherently good thing. Those factory workers or university students aren't working 14 hour days because of the 'virtue of hard work'. They're doing it because they have to in order to stay alive in the continious stampede of progression that is China.

See how 'hard' most Chinese people work once they've got money. Most of the hard work of wealthy Chinese to conceal their wealth in western coutries.

Re: China

#60

I wish I was a high-profile VC. Then I too would be writing essays exhorting people to take on high amounts of risk and to spend their 20s and 30s grinding through 60 hour workweeks, so I could grow my portfolio. Because, we're losing to China! Honestly, it has never been clear to me why "growth" was the metric that we, as a society, have been optimizing for. Who stands to benefit? You? The middle class? Everyone? Or…

>>Honestly, it has never been clear to me why "growth" was the metric that we, as a society, have been optimizing for. Who stands to benefit? You? The middle class? Everyone? Or... wealthy investors and a few lucky founders?

Growth of who, or what? Focus on optimizing personal growth, either in your skillset or personal income, and everything else should take care of itself.

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