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We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

a16z.com

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Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#61

Post by amirmc »

He's asking for innovation in the wrong place. The OP conveniently ignores all the other mobile OSs out there such as Windows, Firefox, Ubuntu and also people like Fairphone. It's pretty lazy to just claim we need more, when what he really wants is one more (open) winner.

I say that he's looking in the wrong place because to "democratize the mobile operating system" is to ignore a critical part of what makes mobile worthwhile. All those cloud services and apps that do useful things for you. How about we democratize the cloud instead? There should be no real reason I can't point my iOS device at my own infrastructure to co-ordinate sync, backup and sharing of all my stuff (instead of iCloud). Must I sign up for yet another third-party service/app just to provide me with an incremental feature? Why can't I just install apps into my own little cloud backend that my phone can connect to and do useful things for me? Have that be open for developers to target and maybe I can pay them for their work. Then it matters less what physical hardware I happen to be using. Of course, you can only access the plethora of sensors with a native app but most services I use don't need this much context. In any case, this is a concept many people are beginning to advocate for with a variety of reasons. FWIW, some of us are taking a clean-slate approach to tackle the distributed systems issues http://amirchaudhry.com/brewing-miso-to-serve-nymote/

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#62

Post by bsbechtel »

amirmc wrote: post #61

He's asking for innovation in the wrong place. The OP conveniently ignores all the other mobile OSs out there such as Windows, Firefox, Ubuntu and also people like Fairphone. It's pretty lazy to just claim we need more, when what he really wants is one more (open) winner . I say that he's looking in the wrong place because to "democratize the mobile operating system" is to ignore a critical part of what makes mobile…

>>There should be no real reason I can't point my iOS device at my own infrastructure to co-ordinate sync, backup and sharing of all my stuff (instead of iCloud).

I want this as much as you and everyone else who upvoted you, but the problem is there is no obvious business model in it. Sure, techies will pay (app.net?), but the general population doesn't care enough to put out money for this.

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#63

Post by amirmc »

asdkl234890 wrote: post #45

The web is your 3rd mobile OS. Sure the developing world still needs very cheap phones, and they require software close to the hardware. But in the developed world phones and tables get closer to a full PC every day. They basically are tiny PCs. And exactly how the web made Windows and OSX, and Linux less interesting, so it will make the mobile OSs less interesting. Because even if you can't get close to the hardware…

That's not the way the current evidence is pointing. People do like apps and so far the pendulum doesn't seem to be swinging back to the web.

See slides 11 & 30 at http://a16z.com/2014/10/28/mobile-is-eating-the-world/

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#64

Post by the_gipsy »

Apps that I explicitly installed on my Nexus 5: Chrome-to-phone, Chromecast, Google Drive (maybe that one came installed?), a metronome, and WhatsApp.

What I'm getting at, is that apps interfaces are generally better than web pages or "web apps", but everything else about them sucks. They nag you constantly with updates and unsolicited request to do some action, require to think about permissions, and crash often.

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#65

Post by amirmc »

bsbechtel wrote: post #62
amirmc wrote: post #61

He's asking for innovation in the wrong place. The OP conveniently ignores all the other mobile OSs out there such as Windows, Firefox, Ubuntu and also people like Fairphone. It's pretty lazy to just claim we need more, when what he really wants is one more (open) winner . I say that he's looking in the wrong place because to "democratize the mobile operating system" is to ignore a critical part of what makes mobile…

>>There should be no real reason I can't point my iOS device at my own infrastructure to co-ordinate sync, backup and sharing of all my stuff (instead of iCloud). I want this as much as you and everyone else who upvoted you, but the problem is there is no obvious business model in it. Sure, techies will pay (app.net?), but the general population doesn't care enough to put out money for this.

There are plenty of ways of making money, including asking your users to pay. Take a look at the number of 'personal cloud' crowdwfunding campaigns to see how much latent demand there is for things like this. Most of those products don't even exist yet.

I think it's a mistake to assume that nobody will pay for such services given the vast number of people online now. It's just a matter of appropriate market segmentation [1]. Business models emerge as people begin to use things, and we should remember that Google didn't have one for a long time (neither did Facebook).

[1] The teenage version of me didn't give a damn and only used free things but the adult version of me has a much better understanding of the trade-offs I'm making (and I also have disposable income now). I don't wish to become a sysadmin, which means I have very few options.

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#66

Post by higherpurpose »

franciscop wrote: post #18

> "For OEMs/handset makers, choice means the ability to do more with software" Please no, this would only yield to more bloatware. The move of Google is smart, moving the OS away from OEMs. [Most] manufacturers have demonstrated again and again that they cannot be trusted with software, since they only care about profit and putting more and more useless apps into the OS. We might need more mobile OS, but not for this…

Not to mention that having more mobile OS's creates a much worse form of "fragmentation" than Android ever had. Imagine having developers write native apps for 5-6 totally different mobile operating systems. If anything that will slow down innovation.

Innovation at the base is welcome in the beginning, until the providers "figure out" what's best (for the most part), but after that you really need to focus on higher levels, that are closer to the end-user and bring the innovation there. For that to happen, and to reach masses of people you need some standardization at the base.

Imagine if we'd all still be arguing about the "innovation" in lightbulb sockets - having different shape, width and height sockets in the market, instead of standardizing on one type of socket that everyone has, and then focusing the innovation on what goes inside the socket (the lightbulb technology itself).

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#67

Post by flyinglizard »

That sounds like a great way to increase fragmentation. Even the current duopoly situation is, to me, an anomaly and a general waste of resources, only existing because of how powerful are the backers and interests of both mobile OSes. These are two incredibly rich players in a fight for survival, which is why the market hasn't been completely overrun by one of them.

I'm sorry to say that, but if you want to get more choices and freedom, the most likely course to succeed is the legal one. Once the prominent player is attacked with anti trust litigation, they'll open up whatever needed to quiet things down. That being said, Google is pretty good on openness from the first place.

Another mobile OS would just mean an awful experience for users, fragmentation for developers and a temptation for device makers to create crap user experience. In terms of resources, if you want to see the mobile market moving forward and not sideways, better invest precious developer efforts in content and functionality, not on more cross platform madness and reinvention of the wheel.

Finally, users get a better experience when things are curated. No one can argue Apple's model doesn't work. People are less concerned about what they can do with their phones, and more concerned about what they actually do with their phones, which is why quality and polish win every time over choice and openness.

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#68

Post by jankeromnes »

Call me biased, but Firefox OS makes the web run on 25$ smartphones, is fully open and customizable because it's the web, has the biggest "app store" of the world because it runs any web app, is totally royalty-free (just like the other Mozilla projects), and is already being shipped on lots of devices all around the globe. How's that for an open, unlocked and innovation-friendly alternative?

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#69

Post by asadotzler »

andybak wrote: post #40

My biggest hope is that breaking the duopoly makes it essential that someone cracks the nut of cross-platform development - and hopefully forces the focus back onto web apps or a similar open technology. Firefox saved us from an Internet Explorer world. This time round it seems that we need more than just one caped crusader.

"Firefox saved us from an Internet Explorer world. This time round it seems that we need more than just one caped crusader."

Or a whole lot more people joining us in the fight. Mozilla is as capable as you all make it.

Re: We Need to Break the Mobile Duopoly

#70

Post by bsbechtel »

amirmc wrote: post #65
bsbechtel wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>There should be no real reason I can't point my iOS device at my own infrastructure to co-ordinate sync, backup and sharing of all my stuff (instead of iCloud). I want this as much as you and everyone else who upvoted you, but the problem is there is no obvious business model in it. Sure, techies will pay (app.net?), but the general population doesn't care enough to put out money for this.

There are plenty of ways of making money, including asking your users to pay. Take a look at the number of 'personal cloud' crowdwfunding campaigns to see how much latent demand there is for things like this. Most of those products don't even exist yet . I think it's a mistake to assume that nobody will pay for such services given the vast number of people online now. It's just a matter of appropriate market segmenta…

All good points. I think it's certainly feasible in the future, but not today. There are challenges besides technical and business that need to be solved too. For instance, you have a personal cloud server you set up that runs all your apps, and you have an Instagram-like app for your photos. How do others get to view your photos? There needs to be an aggregator that runs across servers to pull all the content and puts it into a newsfeed, with an easy to access URL/app for your friends to open and view your photos. How do we get this? With a centralized server?
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