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Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

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Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#31

Post by mbesto »

Good analysis of available data, but there lots of flaws in how the conclusion is drawn:

1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention. There are so many variables here at work, it's hard to begin to start why this number isn't a perfect science.

2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales (even though most geeks in the FB era seem to think so). There are many of factors at play here (branding, image, communication, loyalty, engagement etc) and many are immeasurable.

Believe it or not, effectiveness (and therefore "waste") of ad campaigns are not just how many eyeballs see the ad. I reckon most CMO's wouldn't take this type of napkin math very seriously.

Note - I understand this type of content is for inbound marketing for Embedly, so this is probably quite effective. I'm personally pedantic about the data science behind it so others don't feel betrayed by it.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#32

Post by kwntm »

fl0wenol wrote: post #29
_almosnow wrote: post #16

Very nice analysis of the effectiveness of advertising. Things like this are really needed in the field.

Except I take issue with this statement from the article, especially as it applies to Superbowl Ads: A successful video will have more views, higher engagement, and resulting lower cost per minute. The only thing that matters when putting forth a Superbowl commercial is that the viewer stood around long enough to figure out who sponsored it, even if they didn't stay for the whole thing. On air this is complicated by…

>The only thing that matters when putting forth a Superbowl commercial is that the viewer stood around long enough to figure out who sponsored it

>The Youtube attention statistics are a nice proxy for it but it didn't take into consideration the likelihood that a potential viewer lost interest before they knew what it was 'about'

Great points, and agreed. This is what the attention plot ventures to take into account

>measure the trending of hashtags / mentions / youtube views of the commercial in the days following

This would definitely be useful to see.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#33

Post by driverdan »

RVijay007 wrote: post #17

I'm not sure how well this metric works for Supercell and Clash of Clans. I sometimes play that game, and I can tell you that during the Superbowl, there was an in-app notification sent to all it's players to watch the youtube ad, which greatly increases the number of views of the ad beyond what the other company ads could do.

> there was an in-app notification sent to all it's players to watch the youtube ad

Mobile platforms really need a way to report spam. Notifications to watch an ad should get apps removed from the push notification system.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#34

Post by PhantomGremlin »

I've got a major disconnect with the "facts" at the beginning of this article:

   Super Bowl ad spots are expensive —
   ranging from $20M to $135M.
   ...
   The cost refers specifically to the
   Super Bowl ad spot, and not to production
   of the commercial.
But Wikipedia[1] (and countless other links e.g.[2]) claim that a 30 second commercial cost about $4.5 million for the most recent Super Bowl.

So how does an ad cost $135 million? Did I sleep thru a 15 minute ad? The numbers just don't add up. (pun intended)

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_advertising [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/onmarketing/2014/01/29/yes-a-sup...

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#35

Post by mattmaroon »

mbesto wrote: post #31

Good analysis of available data, but there lots of flaws in how the conclusion is drawn: 1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention. There are so many variables here at work, it's hard to begin to start why this number isn't a perfect science. 2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales (even though most geeks in the FB era seem to think so). There are many of factors at play here (branding, i…

Also people on YouTube will just quit watching an ad, whereas someone on the Super Bowl is almost certainly not changing the channel.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#36

Post by kwntm »

mbesto wrote: post #31

Good analysis of available data, but there lots of flaws in how the conclusion is drawn: 1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention. There are so many variables here at work, it's hard to begin to start why this number isn't a perfect science. 2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales (even though most geeks in the FB era seem to think so). There are many of factors at play here (branding, i…

You bring up great points!

>1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention

'Overall' attention is never a claim. This is simply building upon the views data with what is measured around how far people watch in a video.

>2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales

There is no mention of sales in the post. It is comparing the price of the superbowl spot with the number of attention minutes. There are many factors which can serve as a measure of success, in this case it is looking at how people are watching the video after the ad spot.

>most CMO's wouldn't take this type of napkin math very seriously

Attention minutes is a fairly powerful measure. Ex. Upworthy uses it to determine which videos are most likely to be shared. The goal here is to show one way it can be used. In practice, it would be used among other measures an agency or company has- as you describe above.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#37

Post by megablast »

mbesto wrote: post #31

Good analysis of available data, but there lots of flaws in how the conclusion is drawn: 1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention. There are so many variables here at work, it's hard to begin to start why this number isn't a perfect science. 2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales (even though most geeks in the FB era seem to think so). There are many of factors at play here (branding, i…

One of the points people don't get here is that you work with the data you have. And it is not perfect data.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#38

Post by mbesto »

kwntm wrote: post #36
mbesto wrote: post #31

Good analysis of available data, but there lots of flaws in how the conclusion is drawn: 1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention. There are so many variables here at work, it's hard to begin to start why this number isn't a perfect science. 2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales (even though most geeks in the FB era seem to think so). There are many of factors at play here (branding, i…

You bring up great points! >1. Using YT as a proxy for overall attention 'Overall' attention is never a claim. This is simply building upon the views data with what is measured around how far people watch in a video. >2. Advertising isn't a straight line number of attention to sales There is no mention of sales in the post. It is comparing the price of the superbowl spot with the number of attention minutes. There ar…

> In practice, it would be used among other measures an agency or company has- as you describe above.

If this is the case, then why is the conclusion that their super bowl ad dollars are a waste?

> We’re going to use this to see who got the most bang for their buck, and more importantly — who messed up and what lessons there may be to learn.

Maybe I'm just being pedantic about your misleading title and lede....

PS - I assume you're the author. This is very good inbound marketing for your company...I do applaud you for that.

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#39

Post by doki_pen »

RVijay007 wrote: post #17

I'm not sure how well this metric works for Supercell and Clash of Clans. I sometimes play that game, and I can tell you that during the Superbowl, there was an in-app notification sent to all it's players to watch the youtube ad, which greatly increases the number of views of the ad beyond what the other company ads could do.

I wonder if that's even a part of Embedly's data set. Is Clash of Clans using Embedly?

Re: Which Companies Wasted the Most Money on Super Bowl Commercials?

#40

Post by megablast »

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #34

I've got a major disconnect with the "facts" at the beginning of this article: Super Bowl ad spots are expensive — ranging from $20M to $135M. ... The cost refers specifically to the Super Bowl ad spot, and not to production of the commercial. But Wikipedia[1] (and countless other links e.g.[2]) claim that a 30 second commercial cost about $4.5 million for the most recent Super Bowl. So how does an ad cost $135 milli…

You still have to create the ad, and it can be a campaign which may cost a lot of money.
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