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Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I wonder how this will affect the ability of non-elites to borrow in the future. Although we all like to hate our financial institutions, they really have been an incredible force against class structures over the last 100 years or so, allowing the middle class to own property, start businesses, etc, by gradually extending credit to more and more people. (I recognize it's not been perfect .) Reverting to a situ…

> Unlike the developing world, the developed world is perfectly capable of building a house for every man, woman and child. If it did, poverty would all but disappear; it's hard to be poor when you have your own house. If only that was true. The top countries by home ownership are Romania, Lithuania and Hungary, while UK and US are in the 33st/34th position and Germany/Switzerland 10 positions below: http://en.wikipe…

Though quite a lot of Romanians still have mortgages to pay. And to add to the injury, some are in Swiss francs.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#132
post #107
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greek trend? I can remember quite a few american banks doing just this recently.

Debt cancellation indeed has always existed, greeks just bringed it to another level, with their magic combo : fraud the state's accountings, get as much as you can from the eurozone before the crisis, get as much as you can from other european countries after the crisis, and then 2 years later when things start to stabilize, declare unilaterally that you're not going to reemburse people, and party in the streets ove…

Geesh. I'm no Greek and not fond of Syriza, but god damn, the brainwashing is strong here.

a) fraud the state's accountings: True, but the difference was minimal (2.7% or so to 3.07%, and by fraud you mean they accounted for the expenses on arrival and not when ordering, not cook your books). Also, this was well known by all the other countries and none of them made a peep at the time

b) get as many as you can before the crisis from banks that (correctly) assumed they would get their money anyway.

c) get as much as you can from european countries after the crisis to pay the mostly German and French banks what they have loaned before, moving private debt to the hand of the tax payer (of the 250b, only about 27 billion were for greek gov. usage and all the rest was for debt payment/interest/etc [1])

d) they never said they won't pay, they just want to change terms and not just keep getting more and more indebted to foreign institutions that through their mandate are actually 'ruling' the countries.

Again, no fan of Syriza, but enough is enough. Folks in Greece (and Portugal and Spain) are in a very bad shape, poverty is up and the only thing the troika cares is about the deficit reduction and nothing else.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#133

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

It appears banks and corporations were part of this decision. They decided to wipe the debt on their own, urged by the government.

We're talking about poor people who are very likely unable to pay off their debt. Why? It only applies to people whose monthly income is $138, try paying your rent, food etc on that, and then pay off a debt whose interest alone would already be a significant chunk of your monthly income.

Interest rates already account for these risks and banks have largely already written off these loans as money that won't be paid back. The notion that these were awesome loans that would get paid back and suddenly get cancelled just isn't true. Which is why interest rates aren't likely to skyrocket and why they don't constitute losses, they have already materialized even if the debt isn't cancelled.

Talks of the poor being burdened by taxes the hardest, come on. First, it's just 0.75% of debt. Second, the revenue on this is minimal. If you borrow $100 at a 10% interest rate that's $10 of interest revenue (the rest is principal paid back), and that $10 interest revenue is then taxed at say 20% capital gains tax. So if 0.75% of the debt is cancelled, that's only 0.015% lost tax revenue from debt, it's not going to cause any national tax disasters for the poor. Especially because, again, these loans weren't going to get paid off anyway, it doesn't change much in extra losses.

On the contrary, cancelling 0.75% of the debt makes 20% of the indebted debt-free. They become economic actors again, who previously had no access to their bank account and no room to make personal investments into education or small enterprise. Things you mentioned like sex slavery are more likely to drop because of this than anything else.

Lastly, your point on smart/stupid borrowing, we're talking about a country which was extremely hard-hit by the crisis, one which the PhDs and CEOs at the top financial institutions didn't see coming any better than the world's dumbest person. We mustn't assume 20% of the indebted people who will become economic actors again were borrowing for gambling, it seems like a lot of these people have been put into economic paralysis due to a crisis just like the large financial institutions, yet the large corporations and banks got bailed out and they weren't. And they're in no position to pull themselves out of this with a blocked off bank account and less than $138 in monthly income.

So what's the solution? Ask corporations to do the right and smart thing: write-off 1% of your debts that you had already written off anyway, turn 20% of your debtors into economic actors again who regain buying power, start businesses and participate in the economy, get good will from the public and government and get your country on the road again.

I fully appreciate that this isn't black and white and there are definite cons, but it seems to me to be a positive decision on aggregate.

I think it helps to see it as an investment. Imagine you take 0.75% of your debt, the bottom 0.75% that was extremely likely to ever get paid off, the part that was already part of your cashflow and solvency modelling and whose likely potential losses have already been accounted for.

Then take that amount, and go to the board and say, we can invest this amount, buy legal good-will from the government, buy good-will/marketing from our national customer base, and we get access to a new market increasing our long-term customers by a substantial percentage (20% of its debtors). The cost? Just forgo 0.75% of the debt that wasn't actually going to make us much money anyway.

That's why corporations chose this themselves, it's not a bad idea for them.

Or, keep bank accounts frozen for 20% of the indebted people who got hit by the financial crisis and make $138 a month, bail out financial institutions, and try to run a country where a significant portion of your population are so paralyzed by debts that they turn to sources of income which won't be taxed or absorbed immediately by debt-payback, the type of jobs paid in cash, the criminal kind, the exploitative kind, the kind that's not taxed, that doesn't create jobs or small to medium sized enterprises, the kind that increases costs of policing and regulations, the kind that increases the class divide and pits people against each other. And do exactly to the poorest (leave them to figure it out by themselves) what we weren't willing to do to our largest companies (who we bailed out because it made more sense than to let things crash and burn out of a fetish for non-interventionism market principles right after an economic crisis.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#134
post #64

Note that the amounts in the article are not factually correct. Its really not $138. Its actually: A.) max. 2500kn (croatian kuna) or $367 USD for singles B.) max. 1250kn or $183 per household member (so for families of 4 it would be $183 x 4) This is obviously for the poorest of the society that have had their accounts blocked for debt longer than 360 days. Most working people in Croatia would not be able to meet th…

[deleted]

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#135

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

> Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say hello to life outside the US. In most of Europe you don't need loans to get an education, healthcare or to buy a car.

How do poor people in Europe get cars? Or are you saying they don't need them?

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#136

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

Most of this is fairly incorrect. The risks involved lending money to poor people are largely unchanged by this and the bottom lines of all of the businesses involved are essentially unchanged. All of these outstanding amounts are delinquent as the people being relieved of these debts have to have been in financial trouble for at least 12 months by the conditions set out in the program.

This means that all of these debts were long-since written off, the risks of these losses already worked into the lending rates and credit qualification cutoffs. It is actually, by most accounting standards, kinda "free".

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#137

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

If it just causes banks to not extend consumer debt to poor people then at the risk of sounding like Daddy Knows Best it might not be such a bad thing. Keep in mind these are small debts. Not like a home loan (ignoring the edge case of the person who paid off 95% of their home loan but can't pay off the last couple of thousand dollars). If it's just credit card debt left over from a plasma TV purchase then once-bitten-twice-shy banks not extending these kind of loans to the poor any more could force the poor to save money required before making a purchase in future.

Having said that, I'm thinking out loud here and not convinced of it myself. Mainly because whenever the government steps in like this it means that someone somewhere is getting screwed.

Agree that the free (black) market will move to fill the gap.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#138

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again.

Keep in mind that many countries have laws that allow private individuals to declare bankruptcy and default on their debt. Yet, banks still lend money to poor people in those countries.

Banks will factor the possibility into their costs (and hence interest rates), and it might reduce their willingness to lend slightly, but this is far from the picture you're painting.

All things being equal, people will borrow money smartly or stupidly, but the consequences, good or bad, are faced by the people who borrow.

There is a saying that goes something like this: If somebody owes you 100€, it's their problem. If somebody owes you 100 million €, it's your problem.

A loan is a two-way street, and it makes good (social, moral, economic, game-theoretic) sense that the lenders also face part of the consequence.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#139

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

It could be that the loans were unlikely to be repaid anyway, like "sub prime" mortgages in the US. The banks could benefit in the long run by being allowed to write down these loans rather than holding fake assets on their books.

Re: Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens

#140

Let's just look at the predictable consequences of this move: 1) Banks and other corporations will never lend money to poor people again. Full stop. If there is a chance that the government will write off that debt (effectively stealing future earnings from banks) for these loans, banks just won't issue them. Say goodbye to educational loans, healthcare loans, car loans. Say goodbye to home loans and mortgages. If yo…

Did you read the entire article?

> Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has convinced multiple cities, public and private companies, the country's major telecommunications providers, as well as nine banks to clear some of their citizens of their debt.

This means that the losses happen with consent of the corporations involved.

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