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Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

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Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#71

I'm impressed, and I'd love to see it in action. But I'm also worried that this is going in the wrong direction. If the law is getting too complex for humans to handle, the solution is not to create supercomputers that help us. The solution should be to simplify the law.

There have been some important efforts to make the law more accessible in the last, say, 50 years. E.g.:

* Jury instruction have been rewritten using the minimum number of terms that jurors won't already know.

* Legal decisions are written to be more readable to contemporary laypeople. (At least they seem that way to me -- it's a little hard to tell given the change in writing styles generally.)

* Uniform legal codes have refactored the law to make it more consistent state-to-state, and to remove complexity when for example two causes of action could be reduced to one.

* Property law (which probably moves more slowly than others) has moved away from centuries-old "magic phrases" that could break inexpertly-written deeds.

But all of this is basically syntax. It makes the system easier to learn, but doesn't reduce the fundamental complexity of the model.

And you can't reduce that complexity much, if you want a system that is "fair" and "just" at scale. "Fair" meaning that it treats like cases alike, and different cases differently. "Just" meaning that it mostly comes to what most people consider the right outcome in individual cases.

The scale here is hundreds of millions of people over hundreds of years, any two (or more) of whom can interact in a way they want the law to settle. Treating all of those cases "fairly" means at least one of: already having a rule that roughly guides the outcome for a given dispute (statutes and regulations), or taking into account the decisions other people came to in similar cases in the past (caselaw). Treating the cases "justly" means those rules and analogies have to be fine-grained -- if one of the parties points out a special circumstance in their case, and most people would feel that it should change the outcome, then it needs to be taken into account for the system to be just.

So law is complex because the potential interactions between hundreds of millions of unique individuals are complex.

You might want to reduce complexity by reducing the reach of the law, but I don't think you can reduce it that far and still have a recognizable society. For example, many libertarians would prefer a system with greatly reduced criminal law and commercial regulation -- but where the government still enforces contract and property law in a way that is predictable and fair. The system for fairly, justly, reliably, predictably enforcing the contracts entered by hundreds of millions of people over hundreds of years is going to be complex -- the same kind of complexity we have now.

Obviously the situation could be better or worse -- the stuff I listed at the top are small examples of how it's gotten better. Making the system (say) half as complex would be great. But it wouldn't fundamentally change the problem space, or make tools like Watson unhelpful for solving it.

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#72
Love the idea and execution, but this is less an attorney and more a legal librarian. Attorneys spend most of their time on the facts of the case.

In law school, most lawyers are taught to present each argument in a standard format called IRAC: Issue, Rule, Analysis, Conclusion. The issue is like the question presented on the front page here: "can courts pierce the corporate veil where a corporation has misappropriated funds?" ROSS spits out the relevant rule, and any information it can find on how to interpret that rule in specific situations. However, this is only the beginning of a lawyer's job. The largest part is taking that rule and actually applying it to the facts of the specific case. ROSS doesn't seem to be able to do this, yet. Finally, and least importantly, the lawyer comes up with a conclusion (or a series of probability-weighted conclusions). ROSS doesn't seem to be able to do this either. In law school and in court, it's not enough to cite the rule of law. It's much more important to apply the reasoning of the rule to every specific fact in the specific case.

It would be very interesting to see this intelligence applied not just to legal research, as here, but to e-discovery, which is the other time intensive task given to associates and contract attorneys. That would, I think, be the next step into turning this into a general purpose attorney that _would_ be able to handle the analysis and perhaps conclusory stage of a legal issue.

If anyone who worked on ROSS is here, where did you purchase your corpus from? West or lexis? How are you doing shepardizing and pruning of bad law?

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#73
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, it's a reflection of reality and human values, both of which which happen to be very complex, nuanced, and have plenty of edge cases for any rule we might try to dream up.

I think it's a reflection of an uneducated society that cannot apply common sense or the Golden Rule. Everything has to be specified in extreme detail.

Some things have no unequivocal decision metric. e.g. "We know it's not always fair but that's the way we have decided it goes, so everyone knows where they stand".

I think this is demonstrated by Coase's "The Problem of Social Cost" [1]

> Because in the real world there are costs of bargaining and information gathering, legal rules are justified to the extent of their ability to allocate rights to the most efficient right-bearer.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Social_Cost

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#74

Honest question -- This is amazing! But why limit the search only to legal profession, why not apply Watson to all general questions and compete with Google? I'd love an answer to a question without a list of results.

Well, solving a specific domain is easier than solving for all domains. Begin small. It's not the same type of technology as Google. It most likely contain a lot of specific configuration for understanding the semantics and expressions of law.

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#75
post #51

Wowed by the engineering brilliance. Ambivalent about the social cost-benefit. Creative destruction indeed (for the lower and middle orders, anyway). "First it came for the factory workers,...and then the medics and lawyers..."

It won't be satisfied until there's no work left to do, then how will we spend our time!

I know there are a million things I would do if I didn't have to work.

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#76
post #56

Is there an amazing demo of this tech that i missed ? because if not-this is just another marketing site for watson/ibm, nothing more. we've seen plenty of those done by IBM- without much result yet(for example, where is watson the chef app they promised), 4 years after jeopardy. So i think it's better to be skeptical.

Where is the Watson chef app? It's been writing a book: http://www.amazon.com/Cognitive-Cooking-Chef-Watson-Innovati...

(disclosure: I work for IBM, not in the Watson group)

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#77

I'm impressed, and I'd love to see it in action. But I'm also worried that this is going in the wrong direction. If the law is getting too complex for humans to handle, the solution is not to create supercomputers that help us. The solution should be to simplify the law.

The law has always been complicated. I'm pretty sure the only people who would be able to "simplify the law" would be lawyers, and I can't really imagine they would think it would be in their best interests to do that.

> The law has always been complicated. I'm pretty sure the only people who would be able to "simplify the law" would be lawyers, and I can't really imagine they would think it would be in their best interests to do that.

Lawyers are often behind movements to simplify the law. The problem is that efforts to simplify the law often lead to (what some substantial group feels are) substantially negative impacts given the complexity of the reality the law is meant to deal with.

Simplifying often sounds better in the abstract than in concrete terms.

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#78
post #72

Love the idea and execution, but this is less an attorney and more a legal librarian. Attorneys spend most of their time on the facts of the case. In law school, most lawyers are taught to present each argument in a standard format called IRAC: Issue, Rule, Analysis, Conclusion. The issue is like the question presented on the front page here: "can courts pierce the corporate veil where a corporation has misappropriat…

Right now, there are a lot of billable hours for what Ross can do in seconds. I don't think it's unfair to say that this is replacing a substantial portion of _some_ lawyer's jobs.

Re: Ross: Attorney built on top of IBM's Watson

#79
post #56

Is there an amazing demo of this tech that i missed ? because if not-this is just another marketing site for watson/ibm, nothing more. we've seen plenty of those done by IBM- without much result yet(for example, where is watson the chef app they promised), 4 years after jeopardy. So i think it's better to be skeptical.

Where is the Watson chef app? It's been writing a book: http://www.amazon.com/Cognitive-Cooking-Chef-Watson-Innovati... (disclosure: I work for IBM, not in the Watson group)

Again, we're looking for working technologies - not articles, movies or books.Its much easier to bullshit your way through a book than a working software - and comparing that to the state of the art and other commercial offerings.
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