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The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

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Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#51

Post by jsyedidia »

fecak wrote: post #49
jsyedidia wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the BC professor speculated that they over-inflated them. I speculated that they prepared the balls outdoors. The reason for the speculation is that I know the ideal gas law holds. Therefore, if the Colts balls did not deflate when they took them to a colder temperature, there must be an explanation. I think the likeliest explanation is that the gas inside the balls had already equilibrated to an outdoors temperat…

No, people are speculating the Pats cheated under the assumption that both teams inflated their balls to a similar psi, under the same inflation conditions, and for some reason the Pats balls (at a home game) reacted differently to the same weather conditions.

Let's take it as a given that the Patriots balls deflated and the Colts balls didn't (we don't actually know that for certain, but I think it's reasonable to assume it's true). We know that if the Patriots prepared their balls indoors and worked on them up until the moment they gave them to the refs as they claimed they did and as is legal, the ideal gas law predicts a deflation of the Patriots' balls approximately equal to what is being rumored.

So the thing making people speculate the Patriots cheated is that the Colts' balls didn't deflate, combined with a lack of understanding of the ideal gas law, or a refusal to take it into account.

I take it as a given that the ideal gas law holds. That means that for the Colts' balls not to deflate when going from indoors to outdoors they must have prepared them differently than the Patriots. A simple explanation is that the gas inside their balls had already equilibrated to the outdoors temperatures before the balls were given to the refs (e.g. the Colts threw them around outside). It is speculation, but it seems to me more reasonable than the assumption that the Patriots' and Colts' balls both managed to evade the workings of the ideal gas law, and the Patriots' balls deflated because the Patriots cheated.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#52

Post by Anechoic »

fecak wrote: post #49
jsyedidia wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the BC professor speculated that they over-inflated them. I speculated that they prepared the balls outdoors. The reason for the speculation is that I know the ideal gas law holds. Therefore, if the Colts balls did not deflate when they took them to a colder temperature, there must be an explanation. I think the likeliest explanation is that the gas inside the balls had already equilibrated to an outdoors temperat…

No, people are speculating the Pats cheated under the assumption that both teams inflated their balls to a similar psi, under the same inflation conditions, and for some reason the Pats balls (at a home game) reacted differently to the same weather conditions.

under the assumption that both teams inflated their balls to a similar psi, under the same inflation conditions

There are zero reasons to believe those assumptions are true.

or some reason the Pats balls (at a home game) reacted differently to the same weather conditions

All we know is that the Pats balls were under the limit and the Colts balls met the limit. To my knowledge, there has been nothing released/leaked about any decrease in pressure in the Colts balls, just that they were within the rules.

The Pats may or may not have done something untoward, but the only reason so many people seem to think it's a slam dunk is that they're misinterpreting the information that's out there.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#53

Post by Hasu »

jsyedidia wrote: post #44
fecak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"if the colts prepared their balls outdoors..." >"they may have over-inflated them..." You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no? As opposed to assuming the Pats under inflated their balls, intentionally or unintentionally, you are speculating that the Colts over inflated theirs and/or inflated them in a different environment?

No the BC professor speculated that they over-inflated them. I speculated that they prepared the balls outdoors. The reason for the speculation is that I know the ideal gas law holds. Therefore, if the Colts balls did not deflate when they took them to a colder temperature, there must be an explanation. I think the likeliest explanation is that the gas inside the balls had already equilibrated to an outdoors temperat…

It's not like this is the first time it's ever been cold outside. The New England Patriots play a lot of football, yes? They often do so during the winter months, no?

It's exactly what you'd expect from the laws of physics, which is precisely why even if the situation you suggest is the case, the Patriots still knew that the balls would deflate due to the aforementioned extremely predictable laws of physics, and they still cheated.

If they didn't know, then incompetence is no excuse. They cheated because they didn't know about the ideal gas law? They still cheated.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#54

Post by maxerickson »

Anechoic wrote: post #22

For those of you who aren't keeping up with the up to the minute minutae of the New England Patriots (American football team) scandal (presumably because you have lives), head coach Bill Belichick gave a press conference a few hours ago where he provided a hypothesis of what might have happened: as many people know, quarterbacks like their game footballs prepared in specific (sometimes elaborate [0]) ways prior to us…

It would be sort of ironic if the explanation for the whole kerfuffle is that they fill the balls with hot air.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#55

Post by twoodfin »

asynchronous13 wrote: post #37

I'm becoming more disappointed in this analysis. "But in 2007, something happened to propel [the Patriots] to a much better rate." The author is using a 5-year average, and then concluding that something must have happened in a single year that is suddenly different. What that implies to me, is that they had a particularly terrible year in 2002. So, when the really bad year slides off of the 5-year moving average, th…

Also, while the article ultimately looks at both, the "money chart" is for fumbles lost, rather than total fumbles. I'm pretty sure the stat guys at footballoutsiders.com have more than once run the numbers to show that fumble recovery is pure chance; hard to see how having easier to handle balls increases those odds.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#56

Post by twoodfin »

jonjenk wrote: post #35
Anechoic wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's probably the strongest evidence I've seen so far that there has likely been a persistent rules violation. That's only true if ball inflation tracks with fumbles. There have been lots of assertions that's the case, but I haven't seen any evidence. Two counter examples: - If you look at AFCC, that's Patriots had 1 fumble in the first half playing with an underinflated ball in dry weather conditions, and had zero f…

I agree that we don't have a controlled study in this case. However, it will be interesting to look at this data at the end of next season. If the Patriots fumble stats revert to pre 2007 levels it will certainly raise some interesting questions.

Why? Fumbles are rare and highly variable.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#57

Post by bjterry »

jsyedidia wrote: post #4

If you watch Patriots games, you'll see that if Patriots running backs fumble, they get benched. If they do it again they get released. Belichick is maniacal about getting on his players about fumbling. That is a simple explanation. The team has been well-coached for a long time. If you think the Patriots' success is all from deflated balls, you need to explain how they out-scored the Colts 28-0 in the second half (a…

The author of this article did a follow-up post in which he compared individual players before, during and after playing for the Patriots, and found very suspicious trends. On average the players were only good at fumbles when they were playing for New England. Of course, one can still argue that Belichick's focus on fumbling is only effective during the time that players are employed by New England, but you'd still expect to see SOME carryover to players' later teams if only because of whatever good habits they picked up playing for NE.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/new-england-p...

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#58

Post by ragtimepiano »

Listen, engineers and scientists: 11 out of 12 balls, markedly different and underinflated compared to the other team's balls? This is a priori evidence of tampering. Any jury would convict. We don't need a Perry Mason-type confession; we don't need to identify the culprit. The team should be strongly punished for breaking the NFL rules. I think the NFL should do an extensive investigation, after the initial punishment, which justly would be done BEFORE the Super Bowl. This investigation needs to determine whether the Pats have cheated with underinflated balls over a period of months and years. It can be done. Then is the time for scientific analysis, testimony by physicists, and so on.

My point is: We don't need to identify the person responsible, and we don't need a confession. Guilt is obvious, a priori. Punishment should be swift.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#60

Post by ragtimepiano »

bjterry wrote: post #57
jsyedidia wrote: post #4

If you watch Patriots games, you'll see that if Patriots running backs fumble, they get benched. If they do it again they get released. Belichick is maniacal about getting on his players about fumbling. That is a simple explanation. The team has been well-coached for a long time. If you think the Patriots' success is all from deflated balls, you need to explain how they out-scored the Colts 28-0 in the second half (a…

The author of this article did a follow-up post in which he compared individual players before, during and after playing for the Patriots, and found very suspicious trends. On average the players were only good at fumbles when they were playing for New England. Of course, one can still argue that Belichick's focus on fumbling is only effective during the time that players are employed by New England, but you'd still…

Assessing Belichick's attitudes toward fumbles is subjective, not objective. The number of player fumbles is objective. Anyone know an NFL coach who likes fumbles? Brady has fumbled multiple times and still starts.
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