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The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

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Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#41

Post by fecak »

jsyedidia wrote: post #38
ellyagg wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is claiming the Patriots aren't good. They are claiming that, with extremely good evidence at this point, they also cheated. There are other teams that try really hard to train their players not to fumble, including taking them out until they learn not to fumble. Belichick has been otherworldly good at this training. The Patriots were not always otherworldly at not fumbling. In fact, this acumen started the sa…

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

>"if the colts prepared their balls outdoors..." >"they may have over-inflated them..."

You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no? As opposed to assuming the Pats under inflated their balls, intentionally or unintentionally, you are speculating that the Colts over inflated theirs and/or inflated them in a different environment?

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#42

Post by chockablock »

donchipotle wrote: post #6
itsdrewmiller wrote: post #5

plays per fumble is not a very good metric - as fumbles go down it increases exponentially. If you look at the total fumbles, the patriots are #1 but only 7 ahead of #2. The two worst teams are 10 behind the next two teams. I didn't run the numbers, but eyeballing it, it seems like the Patriots are pretty easily within a couple standard deviations there.

I think Brian Burke did a more thorough take on it. http://advancednflstats.com/index.php/home/research/general/... It's not as damning for the Patriots. But very interesting that it suddenly started in 2007, the same year the NFL changed the rules to allow visiting teams to use their own balls.

Thanks this is a much more mathematically reasonable analysis. I especially like the idea of using the #fumbles made by Pats' opponents as a control for the weather (although that confounds the Pats' defense's ability to generate fumbles).

The OP gets credit for noticing an unusual trend in the data, but does all kinds of weird seat-of-the-pants analysis that I found pretty hard to even look at.

E.g. Sorting the teams by fumble frequency, and then running a regression on the ranked list (!!?); using plays/fumble instead of fumbles/play; reporting stats with the null hypothesis that the Pats fumble rate is drawn randomly from other teams (instead of asking what the likelihood is of an extreme value at least that high).

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#43

Post by pdabbadabba »

jsyedidia wrote: post #38
ellyagg wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is claiming the Patriots aren't good. They are claiming that, with extremely good evidence at this point, they also cheated. There are other teams that try really hard to train their players not to fumble, including taking them out until they learn not to fumble. Belichick has been otherworldly good at this training. The Patriots were not always otherworldly at not fumbling. In fact, this acumen started the sa…

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

I don't understand this as a defense. Either a) they inflated them under (roughly) the same conditions as the Colts and the disparity in the pressures of the teams' balls is due to the fact that they were intentionally underinflated originally, or b) they were, as you say, inflated to the correct pressure under different conditions and drifted away from the regulation pressure due to a change in temperature. Either way, the balls were underinflated at game time. Scenario a is worse, of course, but even in scenario b, you have to wonder why they didn't correct the pressure. (Quarterbacks are surely able to detect the lower pressure, and pretty much everyone -- particularly professional QBs, I would think -- is aware that pressure drops with the temperature).

And in any case, at best this is a possible explanation for the underinflation. There is no evidence that the explanation you give is true, or even likely, since it rests on totally unsupported assumptions about the conditions under which the teams inflated their balls.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#44

Post by jsyedidia »

fecak wrote: post #41
jsyedidia wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

>"if the colts prepared their balls outdoors..." >"they may have over-inflated them..." You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no? As opposed to assuming the Pats under inflated their balls, intentionally or unintentionally, you are speculating that the Colts over inflated theirs and/or inflated them in a different environment?

No the BC professor speculated that they over-inflated them. I speculated that they prepared the balls outdoors. The reason for the speculation is that I know the ideal gas law holds. Therefore, if the Colts balls did not deflate when they took them to a colder temperature, there must be an explanation. I think the likeliest explanation is that the gas inside the balls had already equilibrated to an outdoors temperature.

Many people are speculating that the Patriots cheated on no grounds except that the balls deflated when taken outdoors, which is exactly what you expect from the laws of physics.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#45

Post by Anechoic »

fecak wrote: post #41
jsyedidia wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

>"if the colts prepared their balls outdoors..." >"they may have over-inflated them..." You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no? As opposed to assuming the Pats under inflated their balls, intentionally or unintentionally, you are speculating that the Colts over inflated theirs and/or inflated them in a different environment?

You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no?

Speculation is all there is at this point. All we know is that the Pats balls were under the NFL regs when measured at halftime and the Colts balls were not. We have no detailed information about the pre-game ball preparation steps for either team, no information about the Colts pressure preference (Belichick stated today that the Pats aim for a target pressure of 12.5 psi), etc.

And yes, the Colts could very well have overinflated their footballs, just as Aaron Rodgers claims to do with his game balls.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#46

Post by jsyedidia »

pdabbadabba wrote: post #43
jsyedidia wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

I don't understand this as a defense. Either a) they inflated them under (roughly) the same conditions as the Colts and the disparity in the pressures of the teams' balls is due to the fact that they were intentionally underinflated originally, or b) they were, as you say, inflated to the correct pressure under different conditions and drifted away from the regulation pressure due to a change in temperature. Either w…

The reason that they didn't correct the pressure at game-time is that after the Patriots give the balls to the referees 2 hours and 15 minutes before game time, they are not allowed to touch them, and the refs do not have the procedure of re-checking them and correcting them. I imagine that there might be a rules or procedure change so that they do, and as early as the Super Bowl.

The "evidence" for my explanation is the ideal gas law and what Belichick said his team did in his press conference today. If the Patriots followed that procedure, which there is no reason to believe they didn't, and which is legal, one expects from the ideal gas law that their balls would seem under-inflated at half-time. It's basic physics and easy to understand theoretically and reproduce experimentally.

My speculation for what the Colts did rests on the reports that their balls did not deflate. For that to hold, given the laws of physics, something like the balls equilibrating to the outdoors temperatures before giving them to the refs must have happened.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#47

Post by Anechoic »

pdabbadabba wrote: post #43
jsyedidia wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They had the deflated footballs for a reason.": It's called the ideal gas law. http://nesn.com/2015/01/boston-college-professor-weather-had... If you're concerned that the chairman of BC's physics department didn't do his calculations correctly, I also have a Ph.D. in physics and corroborated them. Make sure you use both absolute pressure and absolute temperature if you want to do the computations yourself; it's rea…

I don't understand this as a defense. Either a) they inflated them under (roughly) the same conditions as the Colts and the disparity in the pressures of the teams' balls is due to the fact that they were intentionally underinflated originally, or b) they were, as you say, inflated to the correct pressure under different conditions and drifted away from the regulation pressure due to a change in temperature. Either w…

you have to wonder why they didn't correct the pressure.

AFAIK, teams are not allowed to reinstall balls during the game, refs can, but they obviously didn't detect it until they measured the pressure at halftime.

Quarterbacks are surely able to detect the lower pressure

Everyone seems to be taking this as a given when it's not at all. There are qb's who can detect it, and others who can't.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#48

Post by etrevino »

mrwarn wrote: post #29
joshuapayne wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are incorrect with respect to your explanation of "the 12th football being used for kicking". An entire separate group of footballs are used for kicking, outside control of either team. The kicking balls are brand new and are not allowed to be broken-in. They still have the waxy coating a new ball has. This was done some years ago to try to reduce the effectiveness of kickers.

I stand corrected, I didnt know that tidbit and just assumed that the 12th ball was for kickoff/field goals. But what about punting is it the same ball used for kicking or would it be part of the 12?

Punting balls are also the special kicking balls.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#49

Post by fecak »

jsyedidia wrote: post #44
fecak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"if the colts prepared their balls outdoors..." >"they may have over-inflated them..." You are certainly speculating quite a bit here, no? As opposed to assuming the Pats under inflated their balls, intentionally or unintentionally, you are speculating that the Colts over inflated theirs and/or inflated them in a different environment?

No the BC professor speculated that they over-inflated them. I speculated that they prepared the balls outdoors. The reason for the speculation is that I know the ideal gas law holds. Therefore, if the Colts balls did not deflate when they took them to a colder temperature, there must be an explanation. I think the likeliest explanation is that the gas inside the balls had already equilibrated to an outdoors temperat…

No, people are speculating the Pats cheated under the assumption that both teams inflated their balls to a similar psi, under the same inflation conditions, and for some reason the Pats balls (at a home game) reacted differently to the same weather conditions.

Re: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible

#50

Post by jlcummings »

zaroth wrote: post #24
Anechoic wrote: post #22

For those of you who aren't keeping up with the up to the minute minutae of the New England Patriots (American football team) scandal (presumably because you have lives), head coach Bill Belichick gave a press conference a few hours ago where he provided a hypothesis of what might have happened: as many people know, quarterbacks like their game footballs prepared in specific (sometimes elaborate [0]) ways prior to us…

Going from 75 degrees to 50 produces something like a 1.5 psi reduction. 85 -> 35 wound be closer to a 2psi drop. Water vapor increases the drop. Funny thing is searching for the calculation produces highly variable results.

Exactly the same reason professionals in auto racing use filtered/pure nitrogen to fill tires, instead of traditional compressed atmospheric air.
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