Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you honestly going to drop a quote from the 100th anniversary of Time magazine in which the authors were instructed to speculate about the world in 2098 as some sort of referendum on Krugman's economic knowledge? Cherry picking a random sentence from a variety magazine isn't quite as strong of an argument as people keep insisting.
You're right. I am absolutely not making the argument that Krugman is bad because of the quote. I'm asserting that Krugman is bad, because I know that to be true, without offering proof, which would be outside the scope of an HN comment. Separately, I'm also adding the quote to make fun of him. I didn't expect people to take my comment as some sort of intellectual argument. As you point out, obviously, it is not.
The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
51–60 of 61 posts
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that line was a joke.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Fleece_Award
Like the $3k for if military should use umbrellas in the rain: well, should they? Perhaps only officers, so soldiers have their hands free? Maybe we should just contract a clip of some kind that will hold the umbrella to their gear? Or maybe it's only worth it on base? I mean, how far will $3k even go - a week or so of consultant time?
Or the $57k for measuring stewardesses. These are the people who may still be moving about the cabin while everyone else is seated. How do we decide how much a seat on a $100,000,000 plane needs? Can the seat be wider just above the waist of the lady, such that the seats can slightly encroach on the isle? (Big money to be had there possibly - though it's worth noting the 1975 flights likely still had an implicit assumption about stewardess ... styling.) Is it reasonable the typical rider can squeeze past a stewardess? How often and with what kind of difficulty? Will they be required to get out of the way in the event of an emergency or should they stay to direct, potentially blocking the path? In this case, we spent about $130 bucks a few hundred times. An engineer needed those numbers somewhere down the line, and hopefully some insight was gained. Never mind that someone had the (likely) enviable job of measuring the fitting of a few hundred 1970s-style stewardesses.
I'm not saying a lot of the stuff's doesn't make me gloriously incredulous, but it's super easy to just take something at face value and just mock it. (Not that your linking it implies anything - people who mock like Proxmire just get my goat.)
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#53This is by Paul Krugman??! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman That this is written by a Nobel Prize winner and NYT columnist definitely makes it a bit more noteworthy.
I think it makes it less noteworthy. Among Krugman's other "accomplishments" is this quote: "The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet…
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it makes it less noteworthy. Among Krugman's other "accomplishments" is this quote: "The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet…
Krugman's response in a letter to Business Insider. Business Insider was asking him about that quote and about his recent commentary on Bitcoin. Well, two things. First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine's 100th anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there ab…
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#55I believe cstross's book Neptune's Brood is based on ideas from this paper. http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/09/crib-she... Which is funny, considering older Krugman's a fan of Stross's other book series The Merchant Princes, which also tries to have a solid economic backbone. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/more-science-fic...
I'm struggling to remember the novel, but there was another book where some aliens created an antimatter-generating system around a star, using the dip in the star's brightness to tell if another civilization was tapping it. One of their N-removed feudal client races would then come and conquer your primitive society, unless you managed to decode the rest of their message and further demonstrate you were advanced eno…
Of which I loved the idea, but was very disappointed by the realization.
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interstellar migration could be not unlike booting an embedded device via a slow serial link. First send the slow robotic "boot loader," then use it to download the colonists to the new star system and boot up a civilization. Matter is everywhere. Information is what it's all about, and information travels at 'c'.
It might not be practical to send information as light. You'd need a powerful transmitter so your signal can be detected among the noise from stars. It might turn out that sending a spaceship is actually cheaper and just about as fast. The spaceship can steer itself and doesn't spread out the further it goes.
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Krugman's response in a letter to Business Insider. Business Insider was asking him about that quote and about his recent commentary on Bitcoin. Well, two things. First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine's 100th anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there ab…
How can you understand and write about economics if you get something as fundamentally change-provoking as technology wrong?
Economic forecasts are a bit like really bad weather forecasts - given a few variables and that nothing changes they may hold up.
But they cannot predict what will change and what effects it will have. Like the long term implications of internet.
For small systems with stable technologies like markets for a limited set of products some macroeconomic rules may hold up pretty well. But for large scale economies the economic decisions are as much political as fiscal, and the soundness of the decisions can be found out only in retrospect...
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Krugman and Stross seem to be fellow travelers.
1. Neptune's Brood is more heavily based on David Graeber's work on Debt (notably Debt: The First 5000 years ). 1a. If you feel inclined to read Neptune's Brood , I've got one big regret: I wrote it circa 2010-11, before BitCoin really took off in the public eye, and used the term "bitcoin" for a not-like-our-BtC-honest cryptocurrency. (If I'd known BtC was going to take off that way the year the book came out, I'd h…
I enjoyed the book a lot, and I was only a bit irked by the slightly-off Bitcoin references and the countersigning etc.
I have a few pages written on the same idea of many disparate colonies but with the twist that quantum entanglement allows for limited FTL communications, which makes an interstellar blockchain feasible.
I'm looking forward to your next book.
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm struggling to remember the novel, but there was another book where some aliens created an antimatter-generating system around a star, using the dip in the star's brightness to tell if another civilization was tapping it. One of their N-removed feudal client races would then come and conquer your primitive society, unless you managed to decode the rest of their message and further demonstrate you were advanced eno…
The premise sounds like Count To A Trillion by John C. Wright. Of which I loved the idea, but was very disappointed by the realization.
Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]
#60More interesting is what resources or products would be potential candidates for interstellar trade.
Probably information -- art, music, culture, scientific discoveries, technological blueprints (that could be "printed" anywhere), software, genetic material, anything informational. Information has the benefit of weighing nothing and being easily transmissible at the speed of light. This is also probably true for interplanetary trade, such as with a Mars colony... though return of very precious materials via somethin…
There is the interesting twist that if you could position some sort of device on an interstellar information trade route, you could harvest both sides trades "for free".
So one mechanism of interstellar colonization would be to send unmanned drone ships first, then encode ourselves and go.
Richard Morgan has a bunch of books about something like this, his hero Takeshi Kovakz travels digitally from planet to planet, sometimes waking up in a cheap or worn out body and having to upgrade later. In this case the bodies are "dumb" and need a mind loaded into them. I can't remember if its one of his books where there is a colony ship that grows children from babies, educating and socializing them with robots, which goes horrifically wrong.