A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S • Hacker News Board

Re: A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S

#151

Post by jerf » Mon, Jan 12, 2015, 7:14 PM UTC

gmac wrote: post #98

jerf wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, among the key facts necessary to understand that is that the "safety features" are not pure cost-free benefit, and the NRA believes the costs outweigh the benefits. They have some decent arguments for the existence of the costs; reasonable people could disagree about the relative degree of each. It is also not generally the case that guns are always "bad"; guns are also significantly used in self-defense, usual…

http://www.juancole.com/2012/07/58-murders-a-year-by-firearm...

That's just a drive-by comment by an ideologue. Consider it scientifically: The theory is that gun ownership causes crime. The truth is that gun ownership in the US has significantly increased in the past decade. Therefore, the theory predicts that gun crime must necessarily have gone up in the past 10 years. It has not.

Therefore, the only conclusion available is that the theory is incorrect.

You may be able to salvage pieces of the result your are trying to obtain by a more careful analysis, but the facts do not permit "guns = gun crime" to be sustained at such a simplistic level. By the time one is done examining what the facts do sustain the result is far, far weaker.

Re: A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S

#152

Post by quadrangle » Sun, Jan 18, 2015, 6:10 AM UTC

dllthomas wrote: post #66

donatj wrote: post #60

Depending on your source of numbers, 40-60% of gun deaths are suicide and 30-60% are gang related. That at most leaves 0-30% "preventable" shootings. Gang member aren't going to use "smart guns" and I have the moral right to kill myself.

"I should have the legal right to kill myself." And of course, even if someone disagrees with that, getting rid of the gun is more likely to change the method than the result.

I think the stats are that suicide by gun shows far more successful percentage than most other attempts. And I believe there's evidence that thwarted attempts often work out for the better. Essentially, if the only options for suicide fundamentally required a persistent decision over time to carry out rather than a spur-of-the-moment decision, there's an argument that it would be better for society and for suicidal people overall.

Re: A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S

#153

Post by dllthomas » Sun, Jan 18, 2015, 5:46 PM UTC

quadrangle wrote: post #152

dllthomas wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I should have the legal right to kill myself." And of course, even if someone disagrees with that, getting rid of the gun is more likely to change the method than the result.

I think the stats are that suicide by gun shows far more successful percentage than most other attempts. And I believe there's evidence that thwarted attempts often work out for the better. Essentially, if the only options for suicide fundamentally required a persistent decision over time to carry out rather than a spur-of-the-moment decision, there's an argument that it would be better for society and for suicidal p…

Note that I didn't say there wouldn't be any improvement.

The statistics do show guns more effective than, for instance, overdose. However:

1) it is still the case that the method is more likely to change than the result; and

2) it is likely that means is not assigned randomly, and those more intent on ending their life pick more lethal means - absent guns, some comparably lethal means remain readily available.

Re: A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S

#154

Post by gmac » Fri, Jan 23, 2015, 4:08 PM UTC

jerf wrote: post #151

gmac wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.juancole.com/2012/07/58-murders-a-year-by-firearm...

That's just a drive-by comment by an ideologue. Consider it scientifically: The theory is that gun ownership causes crime. The truth is that gun ownership in the US has significantly increased in the past decade. Therefore, the theory predicts that gun crime must necessarily have gone up in the past 10 years. It has not. Therefore, the only conclusion available is that the theory is incorrect. You may be able to salv…

An alternative statement of my theory is that easy access to and widespread ownership of firearms is a causal factor in gun crime.

That there is easy access to and widespread ownership of firearms in the US has not, to my knowledge, changed in the past 10 years, so a lack of change in the gun crime statistics indicates pretty much nothing.

As someone from a country with no easy access to firearms (and generally unarmed police), and knowing the gun crime statistics, I am continually amazed that people can argue that guns are uncorrelated with gun crime and keep a straight face.

Re: A gun is now more likely to kill you than a car is in the U.S

#155

Post by quadrangle » Sat, Jan 24, 2015, 7:04 AM UTC

dllthomas wrote: post #153

quadrangle wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the stats are that suicide by gun shows far more successful percentage than most other attempts. And I believe there's evidence that thwarted attempts often work out for the better. Essentially, if the only options for suicide fundamentally required a persistent decision over time to carry out rather than a spur-of-the-moment decision, there's an argument that it would be better for society and for suicidal p…

Note that I didn't say there wouldn't be any improvement. The statistics do show guns more effective than, for instance, overdose. However: 1) it is still the case that the method is more likely to change than the result; and 2) it is likely that means is not assigned randomly, and those more intent on ending their life pick more lethal means - absent guns, some comparably lethal means remain readily available.

I'm really not an expert here, but I heard an argument that guns aren't chosen more in some sort of thought-out way like you describe. Instead, guns are there already, and get used by people who realize that there is a gun and they might even not make the attempt otherwise. Regarding suicide, I have much less concern about guns as a method than I do about any sort of lethal tool being available on short notice instead of a situation that requires persistent determination and waiting.