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The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

princeton.edu

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Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#31
post #15

I believe cstross's book Neptune's Brood is based on ideas from this paper. http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/09/crib-she... Which is funny, considering older Krugman's a fan of Stross's other book series The Merchant Princes, which also tries to have a solid economic backbone. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/more-science-fic...

Krugman and Stross seem to be fellow travelers.

1. Neptune's Brood is more heavily based on David Graeber's work on Debt (notably Debt: The First 5000 years).

1a. If you feel inclined to read Neptune's Brood, I've got one big regret: I wrote it circa 2010-11, before BitCoin really took off in the public eye, and used the term "bitcoin" for a not-like-our-BtC-honest cryptocurrency. (If I'd known BtC was going to take off that way the year the book came out, I'd have come up with a different name.)

2. Paul Krugman is a cool person to go drinking with in a pub :)

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And another Krugmanism, in the early 2000's: "To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." this guy has been on the wrong side of history so often I have no idea why anyone listens to him.

I'm not sure why I feel compelled to defend Krugman again, but this specific argument is so incredibly tired and completely disingenuous. Krugman in the early 2000's was as far away from the seat of power as humanly possible, he had 0 impact on policy in the Bush administration. Just look at how the quotes are represented on HN: "To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund busi…

> to fight this recession, as OTHER GUY put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

it's clear that Krugman is talking about someone else (Paul McCully)'s phrasing of some advice. What isn't clear is whether Krugman also thinks this advice is a good idea. It seems that way from my reading it - unless Krugman thinks ending the ression is not desirable. It's anything but clear, though.

"your interpretation is incorrect" is a reasonable opinion. "I don't see how anyone could interpret it that way" sounds like hyperbole.

A formal language used on social networks could solve problems like this. A record of accurate predictions made in a formal language could be a solid source of reputation.

https://github.com/neyer/dewDrop

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why I feel compelled to defend Krugman again, but this specific argument is so incredibly tired and completely disingenuous. Krugman in the early 2000's was as far away from the seat of power as humanly possible, he had 0 impact on policy in the Bush administration. Just look at how the quotes are represented on HN: "To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund busi…

> to fight this recession, as OTHER GUY put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble. it's clear that Krugman is talking about someone else (Paul McCully)'s phrasing of some advice. What isn't clear is whether Krugman also thinks this advice is a good idea. It seems that way from my reading it - unless Krugman thinks ending the ression is not desirable. It's anything but clear,…

The difference really just lies in whether you think that a prediction of an outcome somehow is an endorsement of that outcome.

I think the Patriots are going to win the Superbowl, but frankly I don't care if they do or not.

The entire context of the Krugman article was the administration's insistence that the tax cuts were stimulative and were bringing the economy back. He rightly predicted that in an effort to aid that narrative (since Greenspan had given them political cover), the Fed would keep rates low for longer than was healthy. He also rightly predicted that these actions would lead to a housing bubble.

It's a huge leap to go from reading these predictions to assuming that Krugman supported that outcome. He talks specifically about how this isn't a normal inflation-driven recession that can be fixed with Fed action, which just gives greater evidence to his lack of support for a housing bubble.

Add to that, other contemporary articles where Krugman loudly warns of an impending housing bubble / burst, and it's clear what he thought of Greenspan's actions. From Aug. 2005[1], an article that drew a loud critique:

    Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has become deeply dependent
    on the housing bubble. The economic recovery since 2001 has
    been disappointing in many ways, but it wouldn't have
    happened at all without soaring spending on residential 
    construction, plus a surge in consumer spending largely based
    on mortgage refinancing. Did I mention that the personal
    savings rate has fallen to zero?

    Now we're starting to hear a hissing sound, as the air begins to
    leak out of the bubble. And everyone - not just those who own
    Zoned real estate - should be worried.
You don't need a reputation engine, just some critical eye and enough context.

[1] - http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/08krugman.html

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#36
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably information -- art, music, culture, scientific discoveries, technological blueprints (that could be "printed" anywhere), software, genetic material, anything informational. Information has the benefit of weighing nothing and being easily transmissible at the speed of light. This is also probably true for interplanetary trade, such as with a Mars colony... though return of very precious materials via somethin…

Yes, long-term everything could be printed via nano-robots. Even if not directly but as a sequence of building different plants. So something like a seed nano-robot colony + manufacturing blue-prints.

Interstellar migration could be not unlike booting an embedded device via a slow serial link. First send the slow robotic "boot loader," then use it to download the colonists to the new star system and boot up a civilization.

Matter is everywhere. Information is what it's all about, and information travels at 'c'.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#38

More interesting is what resources or products would be potential candidates for interstellar trade.

Asteroid natural resources comes to mind. http://www.planetaryresources.com/

Shlepping atoms around between stars is probably way more expensive than it's worth, unless the destination star's orbiting bodies have a debilitating paucity of those particular kinds of atoms.

But, really, why would we consider colonizing somewhere so iron-deficient, for example, that we need to tow space rocks of the stuff in?

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#39
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it less noteworthy. Among Krugman's other "accomplishments" is this quote: "The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet…

Are you honestly going to drop a quote from the 100th anniversary of Time magazine in which the authors were instructed to speculate about the world in 2098 as some sort of referendum on Krugman's economic knowledge? Cherry picking a random sentence from a variety magazine isn't quite as strong of an argument as people keep insisting.

You're right. I am absolutely not making the argument that Krugman is bad because of the quote. I'm asserting that Krugman is bad, because I know that to be true, without offering proof, which would be outside the scope of an HN comment.

Separately, I'm also adding the quote to make fun of him.

I didn't expect people to take my comment as some sort of intellectual argument. As you point out, obviously, it is not.

Re: The Theory of Interstellar Trade (1978) [pdf]

#40
post #30
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it makes it less noteworthy. Among Krugman's other "accomplishments" is this quote: "The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet…

Krugman's response in a letter to Business Insider. Business Insider was asking him about that quote and about his recent commentary on Bitcoin. Well, two things. First, look at the whole piece. It was a thing for the Times magazine's 100th anniversary, written as if by someone looking back from 2098, so the point was to be fun and provocative, not to engage in careful forecasting; I mean, there are lines in there ab…

I read that before I posted the quote. I think it's worth reading, so I'm glad you posted it.

I'm not trying to prove Krugman is bad with the quote; I simply added it because I find it amusing.

His excuse says: "I was writing in print about something I'm not an expert in, and I wasn't being serious anyway." Fine. That is how I would interpret things even without the excuse. It still says something about Krugman, but no, the quote is not overly damning by itself. (Krugman's entire body of non-academic work, on the other hand....)

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