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The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

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Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#31
post #20
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This can be powerful for people who really have no idea what the market will do. These people should take their hands off the keyboard and not put it back on until they have spoken to at least one Real Person who has the problem that they are trying to solve. After they have done this, they will know if there is any interest at all. This produces actionable insights : if they tell you they have a problem, then at lea…

Suppose I came up with an idea that I absolutely knew was brilliant, let's say edible shoelaces. Unfortunately these edible shoelaces aren't cheap to produce. I'm a one man shop and have almost no money. I make a fully functional website to sell this product, only I don't have the product yet. When people browse the site and have gone through the pricing page, etc... and finally click "buy" I simply tell them that we…

Except that we are talking document management here, not edible shoelaces. Or anything that requires "manufacturing" in the made-in-a-factory sense of the word.

A fake ad survey for a document management system from someone who "works in the electronic Document Management and Records Management industry" is shouting out loud, "I'm too scared to actually sit and code this thing because it's hard and I might take too long to do it or completely fail to do it."

And I don't know why people like throwing money away. With $100, I'd rather buy 5 months of Linode server time than 12 email addresses. When the best entrepreneurs are saying be cheap, I think we ought to listen and be cheap. And with 2 weeks of time, I'd rather sit and code the most basic functionality of my app and show it to people I know who might need it.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#32

That seems hard to believe. I did the same testing strategy with my Job applier software ( http://fastjobapplier.weebly.com/ ) and first of all I only got around 30 ad clicks total, and no one filled out the form. (I was thoroughly disappointed.) Granted maybe I just suck at sales copy, or perhaps there just isn't demand out there for software that helps you apply for jobs. Still though, a 10%+ conversion rates seems…

Please dont take this the wrong way but this is a terrible idea in general. Essentially your selling a product that many people would liken to say spam.

I dont think your issue is in the execution of the trial but in the product itself.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#33
Here's another (cheaper, although possibly less realistic) approach to this: I recently did some market research using Amazon's Mechanical Turk, and added a lead collection form as a bonus.

I put up a simple survey asking users about relevant background information and their experience with the problem my application is trying to solve. Included in this survey was a field to collect the user's email address. This field was very clearly marked as optional (it even appeared after the confirmation code that allowed turkers to complete the "HIT") and the label included something like "Your answers to this survey will help us to evolve the website to better meet your needs. If you'd like to be notified when the new site launches, please enter your email address here." along with an indication that users would receive exactly one email from us due to this form.

I was pretty pleased with the results of the survey--I received a lot of actionable information very quickly and cheaply (at about $0.10 per response) and I was pleasantly surprised that a little more than 10% of the respondants entered what looks like a valid email address.

I don't expect many of those 10% to convert (and lead generation wasn't the point of the excercise anyway) but I was very happy with the ROI on this survey.

Seeing who clicks on ads (and at with what copy) and later "soft" converts may be a more realistic test, but the MTurk approach is an order of magnitude less expensive.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#35
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead of asking for the credit card information (which does sound illegal), I've heard of others who have placed a "Buy Now"-type button on the landing page or fill out form fields just up to the credit card fields (say, for a multistep payment process). A user who clicks on "Buy now" or fills out the first part of the payment form is a pretty convincing datapoint. I haven't tried any of this myself since it raises…

What would it take to make you feel comfortable about it?

That's a good question. My reservations mostly have to do with this:

Of the emails captured, how many participated in the beta and eventually became paying users?

Which is really asking: Will those users really come back after you've broken that initial promise?

Other success stories say yes. And I speculate that there's a certain window of time that you need to deliver in to make it work.

There'll always be another question though, so I guess it can't hurt to just give it a shot.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#36
post #9
post #6

There is an ocean of difference between 14% of visitors committing their email address to something, and that same figure actually pulling out their credit card. A more prudent assumption would be 10% of that 14% will actually pay for your product when it is launched. I learned this first hand. Your mileage may vary of course, but it's incredibly easy to drive traffic and stimulate interest, enough that people will g…

I agree with you. Maybe a good idea would be to ask for a credit card, but not to charge it. I think this borders on being illegal though. I am still pretty happy with 10%, since this was my cut-off for going ahead and building the product.

One real world example of this is https://www.fitbit.com/order If you try to order the Fitbit they say they will not charge your credit card until the item actually ships.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#37
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would it take to make you feel comfortable about it?

That's a good question. My reservations mostly have to do with this: Of the emails captured, how many participated in the beta and eventually became paying users? Which is really asking: Will those users really come back after you've broken that initial promise? Other success stories say yes. And I speculate that there's a certain window of time that you need to deliver in to make it work. There'll always be another…

About a month ago, I filled out an application/request with an NGO (Acumen Fund) about opening a local chapter where I live (Melbourne). My understanding that if they get enough requests, they'll try to get a local chapter going.

Now I got a response that they want to extend a 'special invitation' to use their 'to register on our brand new community site' where I can get involved and maybe new chapters will materialise.

The timing seems pretty convenient. I suspect that the request/suggestion form was really a list building excercise for the community site. It's a Ning. Those things need to cross a substantial chicken-egg hurdle before they are any use to anyone.

I admit, there was no blatant lie. It isn't really exactly the same thing. But it is sending out feelers & building email lists. They could have also put up a big 'join our community' button on the site that led to an 'sorry, under construction' page after you "sign up." Maybe they did. It was a little bit sneaky. I still joined & even started a group. I'm not angry with them. I'll even mention it to others.

BTW: http://community.acumenfund.org/

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#38
post #2

I've been itching to try this for some time. I would appreciate any war stories HNers could share.

I worked at a software company where we should have run an experiment like this. There's an upgrade on user accounts that we charged a one-time $10 for, and people buy it all the time. We decided to try it as a subscription.

We spent a month getting the subscription code ready, then deployed it to some % of users, only to discover that nobody wanted it. What we should have done was build the front-end only, get people to buy subscriptions, and then just grant them the one-time permanent version.

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