The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it. • Hacker News Board

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#21

Post by nfriedly » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 3:36 AM UTC

dawie wrote: post #9

fookyong wrote: post #6

There is an ocean of difference between 14% of visitors committing their email address to something, and that same figure actually pulling out their credit card. A more prudent assumption would be 10% of that 14% will actually pay for your product when it is launched. I learned this first hand. Your mileage may vary of course, but it's incredibly easy to drive traffic and stimulate interest, enough that people will g…

I agree with you. Maybe a good idea would be to ask for a credit card, but not to charge it. I think this borders on being illegal though. I am still pretty happy with 10%, since this was my cut-off for going ahead and building the product.

Maybe do a pre-order the way the do with video games sometimes? You'd have to be pretty serious about hitting the release date though. (And the customer would have to be pretty serious about buying your product.)

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#22

Post by nfriedly » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 3:45 AM UTC

tocomment wrote: post #4

That seems hard to believe. I did the same testing strategy with my Job applier software ( http://fastjobapplier.weebly.com/ ) and first of all I only got around 30 ad clicks total, and no one filled out the form. (I was thoroughly disappointed.) Granted maybe I just suck at sales copy, or perhaps there just isn't demand out there for software that helps you apply for jobs. Still though, a 10%+ conversion rates seems…

> perhaps there just isn't demand out there for software that helps you apply for jobs.

The problem might be that you're targeting an audience that by definition doesn't have much spare money to spend.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#23

Post by teej » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 3:46 AM UTC

dawie wrote: post #10

utnick wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yea 10% seems pretty high, I think it might have to do with saying the 1st month is free and you can cancel any time. Therefore, the 10% rate isn't really a 10% sales rate but more of a 10% willing to try your demo. But 10% is still pretty good for that I think.

I agree that 1st month free and cancel anytime might have something to do with it. If I do a test like this again, I will probably leave that out. I will have these terms in my live product though...

The core issue isn't that you offer a month free, the issue is that your form doesn't measure purchase intent. You have no idea if 1% or 10% of your leads will convert into sales.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#24

Post by pbhjpbhj » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 4:05 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #7

teej wrote: post #2

I've been itching to try this for some time. I would appreciate any war stories HNers could share.

Email addresses don't covert on a 1 to 1 basis to sales. (If. Only.) After the autoresponder runs out (6 days in my case) they've only got only a moderately higher chance of conversion than my average trial user. (~5% vs. 2.8%) I really, really don't like the Put Up Fake AdWords Ad, See Who Gets Suckered minimum viable product. Aside from misleading customers and hurting the AdWords ecosystem (they don't actually get…

Because I've done that before, too -- the first draft of my AdWords campaign for Bingo Card Creator was terrible. It took me almost a year before I figured out how to write AdWords decently.

An SEO specialising in ad-words and PPC would have saved you a lot of time ... I thought all this SEO stuff was obvious! ;0)>

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#25

Post by netsp » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 6:29 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #7

teej wrote: post #2

I've been itching to try this for some time. I would appreciate any war stories HNers could share.

Email addresses don't covert on a 1 to 1 basis to sales. (If. Only.) After the autoresponder runs out (6 days in my case) they've only got only a moderately higher chance of conversion than my average trial user. (~5% vs. 2.8%) I really, really don't like the Put Up Fake AdWords Ad, See Who Gets Suckered minimum viable product. Aside from misleading customers and hurting the AdWords ecosystem (they don't actually get…

A minimum viable product experiment is good at measuring whatever a minimum viable product experiment measures. You definitely can't make exact projections, but it is a piece of info that is useful. At the very least it can tell you not to build something.

It might also be good to test several ideas with this method to decide which one to pursue. Again, they shouldn't be the only factor but all else equal, better fake conversion is better.

It isn't an accurate projection, but it is info. It is also a chance to get an understanding of the adwords environment, click costs, etc.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#26

Post by netsp » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 6:32 AM UTC

andymism wrote: post #14

dawie wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you. Maybe a good idea would be to ask for a credit card, but not to charge it. I think this borders on being illegal though. I am still pretty happy with 10%, since this was my cut-off for going ahead and building the product.

Instead of asking for the credit card information (which does sound illegal), I've heard of others who have placed a "Buy Now"-type button on the landing page or fill out form fields just up to the credit card fields (say, for a multistep payment process). A user who clicks on "Buy now" or fills out the first part of the payment form is a pretty convincing datapoint. I haven't tried any of this myself since it raises…

What would it take to make you feel comfortable about it?

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#27

Post by marcamillion » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 6:48 AM UTC

dawie wrote: post #8

tocomment wrote: post #4

That seems hard to believe. I did the same testing strategy with my Job applier software ( http://fastjobapplier.weebly.com/ ) and first of all I only got around 30 ad clicks total, and no one filled out the form. (I was thoroughly disappointed.) Granted maybe I just suck at sales copy, or perhaps there just isn't demand out there for software that helps you apply for jobs. Still though, a 10%+ conversion rates seems…

I am not selling the product yet. I will definately post about my conversion rate once I do.

How long has it been since you started that AdWords campaign till now?

How long did you tell those that signed up, it would take for you to get back to them?

I, too, would love to see some more hard data. I have actually been thinking about doing this for some time now, but am hesitant about the quality of the feedback.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#28

Post by jules » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 8:36 AM UTC

andymism wrote: post #14

dawie wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you. Maybe a good idea would be to ask for a credit card, but not to charge it. I think this borders on being illegal though. I am still pretty happy with 10%, since this was my cut-off for going ahead and building the product.

Instead of asking for the credit card information (which does sound illegal), I've heard of others who have placed a "Buy Now"-type button on the landing page or fill out form fields just up to the credit card fields (say, for a multistep payment process). A user who clicks on "Buy now" or fills out the first part of the payment form is a pretty convincing datapoint. I haven't tried any of this myself since it raises…

You can preorder several video games. But maybe it's illegal if you don't know yet if you're really going to build the product.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#29

Post by abalashov » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 8:56 AM UTC

Actually, the figures here may be pessimistic. It takes a certain kind of person to submit their e-mail address when there is quite obviously no deliverable being explicitly promised to them for immediate purchase & download. If there were one, there might have been higher conversion.

Re: The Tim Ferris way of testing ideas and how I did it.

#30

Post by lupin_sansei » Tue, Oct 20, 2009, 8:59 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #7

teej wrote: post #2

I've been itching to try this for some time. I would appreciate any war stories HNers could share.

Email addresses don't covert on a 1 to 1 basis to sales. (If. Only.) After the autoresponder runs out (6 days in my case) they've only got only a moderately higher chance of conversion than my average trial user. (~5% vs. 2.8%) I really, really don't like the Put Up Fake AdWords Ad, See Who Gets Suckered minimum viable product. Aside from misleading customers and hurting the AdWords ecosystem (they don't actually get…

> If it can't tell you if an idea is good, and you can't trust it if it says the idea is bad -- what is the point, again?

The point is not to prove the idea is good, but to prove that the idea isn't bad. In other words you can't prove that email addresses will convert to sales, but you can prove that no email addresses will convert to no sales. It's useful to know if your idea will produce no click-throughs, which will produce no sales.