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Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

#5
> More than half of Japanese are single. 49 percent of unmarried women and 61 of unmarried men, ages 18 to 34, are not in any kind of romantic relationship.

So 12-24% of women are sharing men then? Or would this be an artifact of the age bounding and women pairing with older, not counted men?

Re: Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

#7

Reproductive apathy is not the same as sexual.

Same point I was about to make. From what I can see of Japanese media and culture, there's no shortage of sexual desire or ways to act upon it. It's just acted upon in ways that don't lead to reproduction. In 2015 you'd think we might have moved beyond casually equating the two, but apparently not.

Re: Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

#8
post #5

> More than half of Japanese are single. 49 percent of unmarried women and 61 of unmarried men, ages 18 to 34, are not in any kind of romantic relationship. So 12-24% of women are sharing men then? Or would this be an artifact of the age bounding and women pairing with older, not counted men?

A little of both, I'd guess. They're not immune to the "hooking up" phenomenon over there, are they?

Re: Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

#9
Isn't their current economy significantly smaller than their current population, the same problem the USA has, but worse? In that case they can either suffer eternally, shrink their population to match their economy, or expand their economy. Apparently #1 is unappealing, they're carrying out #2, and #3 has proven impossible for the past couple decades.

One way to report on the future is to make a "questioning" article that asks what will happen if ... and carefully point out there is no answer. So, much like CO2 emission, this isn't a "if" or "unless" story, this is the inevitable future. Best start thinking about how to handle the Japanese bond defaults, because they're coming. Other than that, there appear to be no real problems at a worldwide scale.

Re: Japan’s sexual apathy is endangering the global economy (2013)

#10
"Japanese people aren't having enough kids to sustain a healthy economy."

The premise of this article is absurd, and flat out wrong.

Japan's big problem is debt, currency destruction, a collapsing standard of living due to the prior two items (zero savings rate, trillions in loans to the government being paid back in debased currency, high taxes, ~45% of tax revenue being eaten by debt servicing costs, and so on).

All of that debt is eating a large portion of the available capital for investment. Without enough private sector investment, you can't grow an economy, you can't bring in higher tax revenue, and so on.

You don't primarily grow an economy through massive reproduction anyway, you do it through innovation and productivity gains. If population gains were the key to massive economic gains, Nigeria would be a leading economy, and Sweden / Denmark / Norway / Switzerland would have spent the last 20 years languishing.

Or take Germany, their population has hardly moved in 40 years. Their GDP has increase nine fold in that time (and is still a dramatic increase accounting for inflation).

Japan's nominal GDP hasn't moved in 20 years. In that time their population has remained essentially flat (+2m). In those same 20 years, Germany's population has actually declined. And in that time Germany boosted its GDP by 77% roughly. By this article's logic, Germany's economy should have spent the last 20 years in dire condition.

The age of robotics is upon us. The last thing you're going to want in the next century is a vast oversupply of human labor. Japan should allow their population to continue contracting, while they focus on replacing human labor with robotics and artificial intelligence / software.

That's where a large portion of the economic growth in the next several decades is going to come from, the vast productivity gains to be found in those two areas.

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