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Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

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Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#31

Post by kaitnieks »

gcheong wrote: post #13

I think it would be great to have more competition in the smartphone marketplace. My concern as a developer is that with so many devices coming out can I be reasonably assured that any app I write for android will work on all devices as with the iPhone? I certainly cannot afford to buy 12 different phones. Sure, adroid is supposed to be the common OS but is it going to really work that way in practice?

I asked them about this in some unconference. They were very smug about it, they said that hardware developers will want to implement the whole thing as completely and as compliantly with other Android phones as possible and the message was "we don't care". I think Android development will become close to the nightmare that mobile games developers used (or still do?) to face.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#32

Post by henrikschroder »

dminor wrote: post #27
dminor wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your translator is broken -- there's just a bunch of new Android phones all coming out at once, whereas before last month there was only the G1 on T-Mobile. Hence the explosion.

Here's Gartner's prediction of Android going from 2% to 14% by 2012: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_gr... There may be as many as 40(!) phones coming out in 2010.

Here's Gartner's prediction of everything:

Growth!

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#34

Post by blasdel »

dminor wrote: post #27
dminor wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your translator is broken -- there's just a bunch of new Android phones all coming out at once, whereas before last month there was only the G1 on T-Mobile. Hence the explosion.

Here's Gartner's prediction of Android going from 2% to 14% by 2012: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_gr... There may be as many as 40(!) phones coming out in 2010.

They said the exact same thing a year ago about the cornucopia of phones that would come out in 2009

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#35

Post by jballanc »

dejb wrote: post #28
stcredzero wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...can I be reasonably assured that any app I write for android will work on all devices as with the iPhone? That's one of the main points of Android. It's in Apple's DNA to really polish their software on a small number of hardware platforms. This might not be so much of an advantage when it comes to apps handling personal information. However, this advantage might be significant when it comes to games some of which…

> However, this advantage might be significant when it comes to games some of which have a tendency to push whatever hardware they are on. This doesn't line up with the experience in desktop software where the the PC dominates gaming despite having a multitude of difference hardware environments.

...and you've never run into a case where your particular hardware isn't capable of running latest great game XYZ? The point is that people don't think of their phones the same way they think of their computers. If I want to play Crysis, I'll go out and buy a new graphics card. If I've got 15 min standing in line at the store and my phone can't play your game, I'll go buy a different game.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#36

Post by charltones »

henrikschroder wrote: post #32
dminor wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's Gartner's prediction of Android going from 2% to 14% by 2012: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_gr... There may be as many as 40(!) phones coming out in 2010.

Here's Gartner's prediction of everything: Growth!

Did I imagine it, or was there a website posted here a while ago that tracked these kind of predictions against reality? I had a quick google for it but couldn't find it.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#37

Post by JunkDNA »

dejb wrote: post #28
stcredzero wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...can I be reasonably assured that any app I write for android will work on all devices as with the iPhone? That's one of the main points of Android. It's in Apple's DNA to really polish their software on a small number of hardware platforms. This might not be so much of an advantage when it comes to apps handling personal information. However, this advantage might be significant when it comes to games some of which…

> However, this advantage might be significant when it comes to games some of which have a tendency to push whatever hardware they are on. This doesn't line up with the experience in desktop software where the the PC dominates gaming despite having a multitude of difference hardware environments.

The detail you forget with gaming is that the basic PC hardware is more or less guaranteed to be there: mouse, keyboard, 3d graphics accelerator, monitor capable of a certain minimal resolution. In particular, the ergonomics are also consistent.

The issue with phones is that ergonomics can make or break your app, and that is dictated entirely by fixed hardware. Do you have only a touch screen? A keyboard? keyboard + touch screen? What about physical screen size and resolution? Your application will technically run on every combination of that hardware, but the end-user experience may suffer.

Those ergonomic issues impact the end-user in a huge way. If you've ever watched someone with a Blackberry (with a trackball) use an iphone optimized website, it's usable but not as efficient as using a touch screen. There's often no way around these limitations for the end-user other than getting a new device.

Mobile devices will eventually mature and converge toward common hardware and input technologies, but until that happens cross-device work is going to be a real challenge.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#38

Post by thismat »

As a G1 owner (which I do love), I would love to get my hands on an HTC Hero and hack it to work on T-Mobile....I've never wanted to switch carriers until I was disappointed with the MyTouch (forgot the HTC hardware it runs on). I think T-Mobile could of done so much better by bringing in the slightly higher priced HTC Hero and kept the G1 as their entry level model.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#39

Post by StrawberryFrog »

CamperBob wrote: post #2

Translation: Our manufacturers are getting desperate, and are about to subsidize and/or give away a metric assload of phones to a lot of people who are too cheap to buy your apps.

Water runs downhill. The shiny proprietary awesome gadget that apple made last year had been duplicated this year, and that will be mass marketed in a dozen varieties next year. Apple is readying a new shiny proprietary awesome gadget. Water runs downhill.

Re: Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

#40

Post by jsz0 »

mwerty wrote: post #30
jsz0 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The handset makers are hedging their bets with Android because they know Microsoft is interested in producing their own first party phone. When this happens it's likely Windows Mobile will become Microsoft's only licensed handset OS and will be neglected and forgotten in quick succession. Microsoft's handset would probably run a new, non-licensable, OS. The rumors that Microsoft's phone project is in trouble are non-…

> They could slap a dial-pad on the Zune software and ship a product in 6 months or less. I'm guessing you have not worked there.

Nope. As an outsider it seems the Zune group is allowed some autonomy from the typical Microsoft mismanagement process. The Zune HD for example is arguably the most advanced hardware platform for any DAP on the market right now so its development process must have been fast tracked.
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