What is going to happen in 2015 • Hacker News Board

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#111

Post by miopa » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 1:29 PM UTC

Spearchucker wrote: post #68

_up wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the general idea is, why should we put trust in one entity/person, when we could distribute the "trust" to all users.

I think we can agree that distributed is better for the consumer than centralized (privacy and availability), but given that the Blockchain is not the only way to achieve a distributed architecture, I'm interested in why I would use the Blockchain when I can achieve similar results with an arguably simpler solution.

What other systems exist that provide distributed trust architecture?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#112

Post by dualogy » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 1:36 PM UTC

7Figures2Commas wrote: post #50

> Capital markets will be a mixed bag in 2015. Big tech names will continue to access capital easily (see 1/), but the combination of rising rates and depressed prices for oil will bring great stress to global capital markets and there will be a noticeable flight to safety around the world. Safety used to mean gold, US treasuries, and blue chip stocks. Now it means Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook. So several of t…

> Safety used to mean gold, US treasuries, and blue chip stocks. Now it means Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Hahaha, OK folks Wilson just called the top of the bubble right here.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#113

Post by pyrois » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 2:13 PM UTC

jordigh wrote: post #82

bbcbasic wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly Bitcoin is a fantastic experiment. It has created a new way to send money across the world with very small fees. This may not be such a big deal for Americans, but in some countries being able to send money to/from abroad when they can't access a bank account or Paypal account is a big big thing. It does have it's weaknesses though. The first is that you need a good knowledge of security to successfully manag…

Bitcoins have never crashed to 50% of what they were worth yesterday. They are volatile, but they have never been that volatile. And volatile currencies aren't worthless either, the ruble is still an important currency, and so are many others that have gone through drastic devaluations. I've lived through one such devaluation with one such currency, and life went on, the economy recovered. Also, no currency has any i…

> The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD.

I've never really understood the objection that people have with regards to the Fed printing USD (for instance). It's actually a pretty powerful regulatory tool, isn't it? A small amount of inflation is fine (I think the Fed targets about 2%), but high inflation or deflation is a problem for people who have savings in USD. One way to manage inflation is to control the amount of dollars in circulation, which can be controlled by printing or not printing new dollars (and removing old ones from circulation). There are other ways, but the Fed is fairly limited in terms of techniques it can apply. Can someone explain why bitcoin advocates so often object to that control?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#114

Post by jordigh » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 2:57 PM UTC

pyrois wrote: post #113

jordigh wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoins have never crashed to 50% of what they were worth yesterday. They are volatile, but they have never been that volatile. And volatile currencies aren't worthless either, the ruble is still an important currency, and so are many others that have gone through drastic devaluations. I've lived through one such devaluation with one such currency, and life went on, the economy recovered. Also, no currency has any i…

> The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD. I've never really understood the objection that people have with regards to the Fed printing USD (for instance). It's actually a pretty powerful regulatory tool, isn't it? A small amount of inflation is fine (I think the Fed targets about 2%), but high inflation or deflation is a problem for peopl…

Printing money is but one way to create and it's not how most USD is created. Most USD is created by banks, and not the federal bank, whenever they give out loans. This is the basis of fractional reserve banking.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#115

Post by akgerber » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 4:14 PM UTC

jordigh wrote: post #114

pyrois wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD. I've never really understood the objection that people have with regards to the Fed printing USD (for instance). It's actually a pretty powerful regulatory tool, isn't it? A small amount of inflation is fine (I think the Fed targets about 2%), but high inflation or deflation is a problem for peopl…

Printing money is but one way to create and it's not how most USD is created. Most USD is created by banks, and not the federal bank, whenever they give out loans. This is the basis of fractional reserve banking.

'Printing money' is, in the context of the Fed, a metaphor for incrementing numbers on bank computers.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#116

Post by Jonovono » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 4:44 PM UTC

jacobsimon wrote: post #78

God I hope people don't start using "n/" and other silly twitterisms in their normal writing.

Why? How does that upset you more than people using n.?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#117

Post by praxulus » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 5:41 PM UTC

jordigh wrote: post #114

pyrois wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD. I've never really understood the objection that people have with regards to the Fed printing USD (for instance). It's actually a pretty powerful regulatory tool, isn't it? A small amount of inflation is fine (I think the Fed targets about 2%), but high inflation or deflation is a problem for peopl…

Printing money is but one way to create and it's not how most USD is created. Most USD is created by banks, and not the federal bank, whenever they give out loans. This is the basis of fractional reserve banking.

There's a pretty big difference between increasing the money supply by loaning money, borrowing from the fed at the discount window, and creating money out of thin air to use however you'd like.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#118

Post by kimdouglasmason » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 5:51 PM UTC

jordigh wrote: post #85

jorgecastillo wrote: post #24

I more or less agree with everything except this points: >2/ Xiaomi will spend some of the $1.1bn they just raised coming to the US. This will bring a strong player in the non-google android sector into the US market and legitimize a “third mobile OS” in the western world. The good news for developers is developing for non-google android is not much different than developing for google android. The "third mobile OS"…

> I don't see the point of bitcoin or any other virtual currency? To me nothing beats legal tender currencies. All currencies are "virtual". They all exist because we agree they exist. They're all a consensus reality. Due to the banking system, most USD exists merely because banks claim they exist. The point of bitcoins is internet cash. They are frequently compared to credit cards because that's what we mostly use r…

I wish people would stop saying that currencies are based on consensus. They are not.

If you live in any country (say the US), and engage in economic activity, and never acquire the local currency, you WILL go to jail for tax evasion. At some point, you need to acquire the local currency to pay your taxes, otherwise men with guns will put you in prison. Fiat currency's demand is underpinned by this.

You have also conflated demand deposits and currency. Demand deposits are usually worth the same as currency, and it is true that this is because of confidence. However, there have been several times in the last century in the US (and many other countries) where that has not been true.

If you think bitcoin is anonymous (or mostly anonymous, whatever that means), I have a bridge to sell you. Bitcoin is taxable (meaning that transactions in it are taxable events). I can guarantee the IRS (and probably the FBI) have developed (and are developing) some neat little analysis tools.

It always pays to remember that despite the huge number of crimes committed by Al Capone, he was only convicted of evasion of federal income tax.

My prediction is that BitCoin will become so heavily regulated that it will end up being more expensive to use than USD for international transactions; more expensive because there will be lower volumes. Not using the regulated channels will result in heavy fines, or men with guns putting you in a metal box.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#119

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 5:55 PM UTC

Klinky wrote: post #40

_delirium wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the potential contributors with other incentives to contribute are also the higher-quality contributors I'm skeptical that's true in medicine, though it depends on how else they filter their community. My own experience is that non-doctors with strong opinions about medicine that they feel motivated to share are usually precisely the people you don't want medical advice from. Often they are adherents of one or anothe…

This is true about so many things. Sometimes people are driven by their knowledgeable and passion, but there is also a large group driven by selfish desire to promote themselves or an agenda. The guy who wants to be in charge so he can be in charge instead of lead, is not the guy you want in charge. It's amazing how much wasted energy is spent on pseudo science. From zero-energy devices to "secret" cancer cures. Thos…

[deleted]

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#120

Post by jordigh » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:11 PM UTC

akgerber wrote: post #115

jordigh wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing money is but one way to create and it's not how most USD is created. Most USD is created by banks, and not the federal bank, whenever they give out loans. This is the basis of fractional reserve banking.

'Printing money' is, in the context of the Fed, a metaphor for incrementing numbers on bank computers.

But the fed isn't the only one who can increase the supply, is my point. Any bank can do this.