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What is going to happen in 2015

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Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#81

Post by vezzy-fnord »

api wrote: post #6

The "death of the file" is a really mixed bag. The replacement is walled gardens with no privacy, control and perhaps even ownership of your data, questionable security, and the potential that your data could vanish if one is acquires or goes under.

As I stated in a previous post, there is no "death of the file". There is the obfuscation of the file, merely putting a splash screen on it and pretending it doesn't exist.

Once we actually replace hierarchical file systems with a different paradigm (like persistent object stores), then we can talk. Right now we live in a world dominated by the hierarchical file system, and this likely won't change soon. Nor am I necessarily advocating one, as none of the alternatives have ever reached usages anywhere near as widespread.

Trying to pretend that fundamental principles of your environment aren't real is an anti-pattern and a recipe for disaster.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#82

Post by jordigh »

bbcbasic wrote: post #76
jorgecastillo wrote: post #24

I more or less agree with everything except this points: >2/ Xiaomi will spend some of the $1.1bn they just raised coming to the US. This will bring a strong player in the non-google android sector into the US market and legitimize a “third mobile OS” in the western world. The good news for developers is developing for non-google android is not much different than developing for google android. The "third mobile OS"…

Firstly Bitcoin is a fantastic experiment. It has created a new way to send money across the world with very small fees. This may not be such a big deal for Americans, but in some countries being able to send money to/from abroad when they can't access a bank account or Paypal account is a big big thing. It does have it's weaknesses though. The first is that you need a good knowledge of security to successfully manag…

Bitcoins have never crashed to 50% of what they were worth yesterday. They are volatile, but they have never been that volatile. And volatile currencies aren't worthless either, the ruble is still an important currency, and so are many others that have gone through drastic devaluations. I've lived through one such devaluation with one such currency, and life went on, the economy recovered.

Also, no currency has any intrinsic worth anymore. Currencies are all a consensual mass hallucination. I still think it's feasible that if enough of us agree that bitcoins are worth something, then they are worth something.

The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#83

Post by gumby »

Morphling wrote: post #38
rjurney wrote: post #14

Having tried an Oculus Rift generation 3, where the tracking is PERFECT and the resolution is adequate, I think VR will do better in 2015 than he suggests.

At first Oculus seemed like a cool idea, but you can really only play "simulator" games with it, games where you sit in a vehicle otherwise it ruins the VR feel and you might as well just play on a monitor. Only other thing I've seen was some sort of sculpting thing, but I'd imagine the novelty would wear out there pretty fast. More I think about whole VR thing the less I think it will actually be a thing. I'm sure w…

> At first Oculus seemed like a cool idea, but you can really only play "simulator" games with it, games where you sit in a vehicle otherwise it ruins the VR feel and you might as well just play on a monitor.

Check out castAR which you might consider an "inside out" VR experience that projects the virtual world into the real world. Thus you can walk around and look at 3D objects from all sides, see other players, your coffee, or whatever is in the real world, instead of the VR approach of sitting in one place looking around. So it's a way of working you can't do with a monitor.

(CastAR can run regular VR apps too with a small adaptor, but that feels less compelling than the mixed/augmented reality)

http://www.technicalillusions.com/

(note: We're hiring in Mountain View!)

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#84

Post by 2pasc »

zevyoura wrote: post #69

> 3/ More asian penetration into the US market will come from the messenger sector as both Line and WeChat make strong moves to gain a share of the lucrative US messenger market I get that it's very hot right now, but is the US messenger market actually lucrative? Who is making significant money from it? My understanding is the leader in the sector as far as revenue goes is WhatsApp, which last I heard was on track f…

First of all - nobody has been serious about monetizing messaging yet in the US apart from Tango. Kik, Snapchat and FB Messenger have barely started doing anything.

Second of all, I think that there is some kind of hope from Fred Wilson (who is an investor in Kik) that one of the Asian player buys Kik so that he has a big exit there. I doubt he other thoughts than that: WeChat has spent millions of $ trying to get users in the US without much traction to show for it...

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#85

Post by jordigh »

jorgecastillo wrote: post #24

I more or less agree with everything except this points: >2/ Xiaomi will spend some of the $1.1bn they just raised coming to the US. This will bring a strong player in the non-google android sector into the US market and legitimize a “third mobile OS” in the western world. The good news for developers is developing for non-google android is not much different than developing for google android. The "third mobile OS"…

> I don't see the point of bitcoin or any other virtual currency? To me nothing beats legal tender currencies.

All currencies are "virtual". They all exist because we agree they exist. They're all a consensus reality. Due to the banking system, most USD exists merely because banks claim they exist.

The point of bitcoins is internet cash. They are frequently compared to credit cards because that's what we mostly use right now, but bitcoins behave a lot more like cash. They are mostly anonymous like cash, mostly irreversible like cash, instantaneous like cash. You can't whisk away coins and bills on the internet, you can't use credit cards without identifying yourself completely, you can't use any other currency on the internet without a 3rd party's permission.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#86

Post by tacticus »

rmason wrote: post #77
jorgecastillo wrote: post #24

I more or less agree with everything except this points: >2/ Xiaomi will spend some of the $1.1bn they just raised coming to the US. This will bring a strong player in the non-google android sector into the US market and legitimize a “third mobile OS” in the western world. The good news for developers is developing for non-google android is not much different than developing for google android. The "third mobile OS"…

What I want to see is Xiaomi's Macbook AIR clone with 16 gb RAM and a 15 inch screen for $480. It's rumored to run Linux and though the pictures leaked last week are fakes company sources say its still in the works for 2015

How exactly are they cloning something and then just blowing it up to a significantly large size?

(though if someone could show up with actual clones (or near enough to) of the mba range that would be awesome.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#87

Post by refurb »

hawkice wrote: post #53
Alex3917 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still a lot of stuff that depends on weed being legal at the federal level, beyond just the consumer not getting arrested for buying small amounts. We're never going to see serious investment in the space until sellers can access bank infrastructure, there is no longer a risk of DEA raids, state laws are aligned with federal laws, etc. It's not going to happen in 2015 though, unless it gets tacked onto some…

Also, there are concerns with Alaskan towns only reasonably reachable by boat, which means the coast guard can legally prohibit any marijuana from entering the island under national law. Considering Hawaii leans pretty far left in most elections, they might legalize soon, and that's when you get really weird things happening with border control vs. state law. I'm not sure there are a lot of direct flights from mariju…

Why couldn't Hawaii just growtheir own marijuana? Why does it need to be shipped? Even the islands in Alaska could grow marijuana indoors.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#88

Post by bbcbasic »

jordigh wrote: post #82
bbcbasic wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly Bitcoin is a fantastic experiment. It has created a new way to send money across the world with very small fees. This may not be such a big deal for Americans, but in some countries being able to send money to/from abroad when they can't access a bank account or Paypal account is a big big thing. It does have it's weaknesses though. The first is that you need a good knowledge of security to successfully manag…

Bitcoins have never crashed to 50% of what they were worth yesterday. They are volatile, but they have never been that volatile. And volatile currencies aren't worthless either, the ruble is still an important currency, and so are many others that have gone through drastic devaluations. I've lived through one such devaluation with one such currency, and life went on, the economy recovered. Also, no currency has any i…

>> Bitcoins have never crashed to 50%

Are you sure (see http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustr...) plenty of examples. Maybe not over 24 hours, but certainly over short time periods.

I agree volitile isn't worthless. But it limits the mass adoption I have about 3BTC and I saw them be worth $600 and now $300. Had I been an ordinary 'risk averse' person, and I paid $600 for them I'd be pretty cheesed off (aka pissed).

>> Also, no currency has any intrinsic worth anymore.

Yes! This can be generalized to "nothing has ever had, has, or will have any intrinsic worth", which I agree with. A dead cow is worth more than a bar of gold on a desert island, but vice-versa in the 'normal world'.

>> The biggest difference with bitcoins is that nobody can create them out of thin air due to whim like they can with USD.

Yes BTC is more like Gold in that respect, although ironically the intended use case is a currency not an investment. Fiat currencies are the best confidence trick. Even if you know you are being conned, you still have to play along!

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#89

Post by tacticus »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #72
npalli wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

General Motors makes 58% of its entire profit in the Chinese Car market. Ford makes 18% of its profit from China. So clearly, US gains by trade in cars. This is clearly one example. The broader point is that a whole lot of US companies make money in China. http://www.wsj.com/articles/detroits-road-through-china-narr...

But don't that have to split those with their JVs, or is that their actual non divided take? (Forgive me, WSJ is blocked by the GFW) The US has a decent case against China if they want to go to the WTO, but I guess they've decided for now at least, it's not worth it.

Wouldn't the US need to at least follow WTO findings if they wanted to use the WTO for that or risk China just ignoring it.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#90

Post by notatoad »

unsigner wrote: post #64
julianpye wrote: post #21

Why Xiaomi uses its own Android flavour for the Chinese market is clear. But I don't believe they will push their own Android flavour to the US and EU markets, but rather use Playstore-enabled versions. Their first goal is to compete against Samsung in handset price. And Samsung has shown that it is very hard for an Asian manufacturer to introduce their own OS flavours and apps into a Western market.

They can't make Playstore-enabled versions; Google doesn't allow you to make both Google- and non-Google Android devices. It's either all Google or no Google.

i don't think that's true. They don't allow you to make an incompatible fork and a compatible fork, but as long as your fork is capable of running Play Services, you can distribute a version without it.

You just get into trouble if you do like Amazon did and try to block the installation of Google Play Services.

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