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The Fermi Paradox

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Re: The Fermi Paradox

#161

Post by sebastialonso »

kowdermeister wrote: post #133
pilaf wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AIs were taking over left and right we'd still expect to see some kind of evidence of their existence. Since they'd only be replacing biological civilizations I don't think it would count as the Great Filter, not in the context of Fermi's Paradox at least, as you'd end up with roughly the same number of technologically capable civilizations after the filter.

We can't comprehend intelligence million times beyond us, so speculating about their intention is very wild. Who knows, maybe an universal law of super-intelligence is to keep a low profile.

Yes, but I like my sci-fi like I like my Minecraft worlds. With at least a tiny layer of solid bedrock.

If you're going to propose a crazy but interesting possibility, you cannot pull the 'can't speculate, they're to superior' card. You already speculate by sharing the idea!

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#162

Post by danielweber »

sebastialonso wrote: post #160
iopq wrote: post #91

Possibility 5) There’s only one instance of higher-intelligent life—a “superpredator” civilization (like humans are here on Earth)—who is far more advanced than everyone else and keeps it that way by exterminating any intelligent civilization once they get past a certain level. If we're the most advanced civilization right now, that will be us in a few million years. We're kind of dicks.

Exciting for a movie plot I guess. But, what could they win from exterminating another inferior intelligence? By your context, they are already inferior, and thus, no threat to the apex civilization.

It's been suggested by Robin Hanson (who coined the name "Great Filter") that an ethical super-civ would see a galactic war with another super-civ as the worst thing possible, and so wipe out other civs to stop that worst thing possible,

I don't buy it, FWIW, because "ethical" doesn't overlap with "wipe out all other life" in my book. (Although you could certainly, say, have some system that stops any civ from leaving their planet by dropping rocks on them each time they launch something into orbit.)

But you can search Hanson's blog for more talk about this if you want to see more discussion.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#163

Post by danielweber »

Xcelerate wrote: post #15

I am surprised a more common argument was not mentioned: other life exists but the laws of physics limit our interaction. Maybe there is undiscovered physics like wormholes or time travel, or maybe there isn't and the speed of light really is a fundamental limit that cannot be surpassed. In that case, no matter how advanced another civilization becomes, they still can't violate natural law and are thus unable to reac…

Even without FTL, if civs can travel across stars, they should have already colonized the galaxy.

Imagine a civ arising 50 million years ago (a majority of the other stars in the Milky Way are billions of years older than the Sun). It takes 50,000 years to become interplanetary, and then 1000 years later it's ready to launch a mission to the nearest neighbor, 8 light years away. It travels at 0.02c and then arrives 400 years later. After 2000 years it has colonized that system enough that it has local resources to repeat the process.

The galaxy is 100,000 light years across, so that allows a spread from one edge to the other in 30 million years, which is long ago for us. Forming closer to the center and allowing for the mixing of star systems with galactic rotation would shrink that number.

Wormholes or warp drive would actually explain the Fermi paradox for me: since the other civs are used to their stars that are older and hotter, and they only pay attention to the prime real estate. But limited to the speed of light, a civ will spread by filling each nook and cranny it can live in.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#164

Post by danielweber »

XorNot wrote: post #44
Flow wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope there's something along the lines of sub-space transmissions. Once we discover it, we'll start listening and discover a plethora of civilisations out there. Would also be nice if they periodically transmitted decoding instructions :) But who knows, maybe it's far more rare with life that are similar to what we can recognise?

Pretty much the scientific experiment I've been waiting for: we set up some exotic state of matter, and then spot modulated and structured signals coming out of it.

Except all the messages are spam.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#165

Post by danielweber »

pigboy wrote: post #88

Out of all those advanced civilizations in the universe, what fraction use electromagnetic radiation for communication? We are like ants waiting for other civilizations to communicate with us using pheromones.

There are humans that try to talk with ants (and bees, and dolphins) using those creatures' own methods. Unless there were strongly-enforced no-contact laws, then some alien researcher would want to inspect those Terrans and see if we can talk. Even if they are way smarter, they'll use that smarts to talk with us in a way we can understand.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#166

Post by JoeAltmaier »

danielweber wrote: post #163
Xcelerate wrote: post #15

I am surprised a more common argument was not mentioned: other life exists but the laws of physics limit our interaction. Maybe there is undiscovered physics like wormholes or time travel, or maybe there isn't and the speed of light really is a fundamental limit that cannot be surpassed. In that case, no matter how advanced another civilization becomes, they still can't violate natural law and are thus unable to reac…

Even without FTL, if civs can travel across stars, they should have already colonized the galaxy. Imagine a civ arising 50 million years ago (a majority of the other stars in the Milky Way are billions of years older than the Sun). It takes 50,000 years to become interplanetary, and then 1000 years later it's ready to launch a mission to the nearest neighbor, 8 light years away. It travels at 0.02 c and then arrives…

Its unlikely any race would last unchanged for 50 million years. They could likely lose interest in colonizing long before that much time had passed. So the question becomes: how much colonization can one race accomplish before burning out their will to continue?

Just 2 million years ago, human ancestors were small-brained apemen. A million years is a long time.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#167

Post by danielweber »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #166
danielweber wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even without FTL, if civs can travel across stars, they should have already colonized the galaxy. Imagine a civ arising 50 million years ago (a majority of the other stars in the Milky Way are billions of years older than the Sun). It takes 50,000 years to become interplanetary, and then 1000 years later it's ready to launch a mission to the nearest neighbor, 8 light years away. It travels at 0.02 c and then arrives…

Its unlikely any race would last unchanged for 50 million years. They could likely lose interest in colonizing long before that much time had passed. So the question becomes: how much colonization can one race accomplish before burning out their will to continue? Just 2 million years ago, human ancestors were small-brained apemen. A million years is a long time.

Even if most lose their interest in colonization, there would still be some interested in colonization, and those would do so. Unless there were some enforcement mechanism to stop potential settlers from leaving.

Re: The Fermi Paradox

#168

Post by JoeAltmaier »

danielweber wrote: post #167
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its unlikely any race would last unchanged for 50 million years. They could likely lose interest in colonizing long before that much time had passed. So the question becomes: how much colonization can one race accomplish before burning out their will to continue? Just 2 million years ago, human ancestors were small-brained apemen. A million years is a long time.

Even if most lose their interest in colonization, there would still be some interested in colonization, and those would do so. Unless there were some enforcement mechanism to stop potential settlers from leaving.

I don't mean intellectually. I mean, they become a creature that can't/doesn't leave the nest. At all.
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