Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In • Hacker News Board

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#601

Post by mohanmcgeek » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 6:30 PM UTC

solomatov wrote: post #544

DenisM wrote: post #447

I thought a lot about it, and I think I found a simple solution: Keep the current h1b caps, and then auction off each visa to the highest bidder. The auction proceeds must go to the employee in question, with jail term for anyone trying to claw it back. What this will do is drive the wages for the immigrant engineers ever higher, by extension raising the wages of Americans as well. It will also make sure only the bes…

This won't work. H1B aren't only for software developers, but for different kinds of specialists. For example, doctors, who are having residency in US often use this visa. However, resident's salary is smaller than software developer's.

Indian doctors use J1 visas to come to the US, not H1B. H1B's are given chiefly Indian tech consultancy firms. The only other country that gets a decent number of H1B is China.

I have the same idea. And I am looking for more arguments against the salary-bidding-visa scheme.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#602

Post by yellow_and_gray » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 6:32 PM UTC

curun1r wrote: post #220

gnufied wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder where do you get your data for "hire someone from India for half the cost". Of all the facts thrown around - this is easily verifiable - http://www.h1bwage.com/index.php If you ignore those employed on hourly basis, a majority of people on H1B are paid quite well. Apart from salary and benefits - add Visa processing fees for their Kids and Spouse as well (which can easily amount to > 30k+) I think people und…

I'm a dev manager at a prominent employer of software engineers and I did a search for my company at your link. I can't speak for other employers, but it appears that salaries for H1-Bs are ~25% lower than what I know Americans to be making at those same job titles. Half is almost certainly an exaggeration, but to deny that there's an H1-B discount is equally disingenuous. On the topic of the essay, I worry that Paul…

> If Paul can figure out a way to filter in the great developers while filtering out those that are only coming to make money

Maybe he did. They become founders. They start companies worth 100x - 1000x their annual salary. As you go up the continuum of exceptional performance a great programmer becomes a startup founder.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#603

Post by yellow_and_gray » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 6:37 PM UTC

cottonseed wrote: post #217

ta75757 wrote: post #62

Paul Graham is fighting for his side. I hope any developers here are smart enough to fight for theirs. He's arguing that the same companies who colluded illegally to drive down the wages of the "best" programmers, now have no interest in lowering their wages when they're arguing for increased immigration. LOL.

This. How is this not the top comment? The story that it is about talent and not about wages is terribly convenient for an industry that has shown it is willing to flagrantly violate the law to drive down engineer wages.

Because it's incorrect.

Maybe it is about wages for companies that don't understand there's huge variance in productivity of programmers. But it is about talent and not wages for companies that do.

You do have a valid argument that when you increase supply prices drop. But they drop in proportion to the supply. It would be nice if one could estimate the total number of those great programmers, and then calculate what % of the total programmers they are. If they are 50% that would be a problem. But if they are 0.5% (1/100th that), is it still a problem?

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#604

Post by mohanmcgeek » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 6:37 PM UTC

lukasm wrote: post #318

Surprisingly, the solution is the free market. Make a pool of 5k visas with almost no requirements. Companies will bid on it. Add 50 visas for startup founders. Run this experiment for al least 6 years and measure the outcome. On the other hand, that maybe a good thing. If we have more "Silicon Valleys" there will be more innovations, more competition. We don't need one superpower a.k.a monopoly that comes with other…

6 years is a huge time scale. For reference: 10 years ago, China had trade deficits. The companies have a problem now, and it needs to be fixed now.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#605

Post by cheez » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 6:43 PM UTC

waterlesscloud wrote: post #371

andrewmutz wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as Hospitals and Law firms continue to hire competent Doctors and Lawyers, this would be a win for society. More people getting health care or access to the legal system, at lower prices, would be a good thing for society. And I don't see any reason why an increase in the number of Doctors or Lawyers would cause Hospitals or Law firms to hire incompetent employees.

We actually have a surplus of lawyers right now, at this very moment. Large numbers of people with law degrees are unable to find work in the field. So fewer people are going to law school. And this is true even at the top end. The most talented people are going into law in lesser numbers. It's not a theory, it's actual fact.

That's pretty much how free markets operate. There is nothing wrong with it. The idea that X profession deserves the smartest kid in the room is nonsense if the profession has found out how to get along without that kid.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#606

Post by waps » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 7:24 PM UTC

jonny_eh wrote: post #465

nhjk wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article itself is of low quality. Entire sections are based on flimsy assumptions or are just plain false. I'll list a few here: "The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US." A huge portion of the world can't even feed itself let alone educate itself to the high standa…

> If you can't hire someone at your expected price then maybe you should raise it. Maybe the market price has gone higher than what you perceive it to be. That CEO could find his 30 "10x" engineers in a heartbeat if he offered 300-500k. Its not your god given right to be able to hire x number of employees for the price you hired your previous employees at. It's a zero-sum game. If company X hires all 30 of the best e…

Does the economy exist for society or does society exist for the economy ?

> We're talking about macro issues here. We want as many companies as possible to succeed.

This is a "society exists for the economy" answer to the question. The whole point of the economy is to decide division of resources. If that means you don't get any as a CEO, well then you should just get the same treatment as a person entering your store without money.

Congress is not talking about increasing elite programmer visas (those visas exist, require extraordinary support for the visa, ie. extraordinary pay or extraordinary credentials, so these people are not a problem IF you're willing to pay). They're talking about letting the Indian "consulting"(what they call it)/slavery(what every sane person calls it) do double or triple the amount of work they do now. WIPRO will be the main beneficiary of this.

I find it kind of hard to believe that companies actually complain about this. But from a perspective of "more money for me (NOW), not for you" it makes sense.

From a perspective of maximizing our countries opportunities I would argue it does not (by itself) make sense.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#607

Post by jonny_eh » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 7:28 PM UTC

brianchu wrote: post #510

igonvalue wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a zero-sum game. Increased wages for engineers would encourage more people to become engineers.

In the long run. IIRC labor supply is a lagging indicator, so in the short run (e.g. 1-2 years) it would be a bit closer to a zero-sum game.

It feels like it's been zero-sum for a very long time.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#608

Post by sumedh » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 7:30 PM UTC

EduardoBautista wrote: post #206

sumedh wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are talking just about work visas and not about immigration. Moving to a different country under work visa is also immigration.

No, immigration implies you are going to stay there. Being on a work visa you will always have the uncertainty that you will have to leave the country.

Did some google search and yes you are right. I just assumed that moving on a work visa also falls under immigration.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#609

Post by jonny_eh » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 7:31 PM UTC

amerliore wrote: post #497

jonny_eh wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an H1-B I can say that I'm paid the local market salary for my skillset. And so is my wife.

When supply goes up price goes down. Logic 101 says that H1-B immigrants lower "the local market salary".

Therefore we shouldn't allow in immigrants? By that logic we should close down our schools too, those new graduates are also lowering salaries.

Another thing that would lower salaries is the movement of the jobs themselves. If companies can't get enough workers here, at affordable salaries, they'll just move to a country that likes immigration, like Canada. In fact, this has already started: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-22/vancouver-we...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#610

Post by vehementi » Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 7:45 PM UTC

don_draper wrote: post #404

dang wrote: post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

"the idea of pg lobbying to flood the market with cheap programming labor is not only demonstrably wrong" He wants the top programmers in the world to be able to come to the USA. But my suspicion is he has very little concern for your above average, but not great, USA born programmer whose wages are threatened by corporations that exploit and abuse the H1B Visa program.

Who cares if overpaid (compared to other professions) programmers wages are threatened? Are you entitled to make six figures? No, you make six figures because market forces coincidentally put that price on the skill you were lucky enough to land in. Why are you not in the same breath talking about already-depressed McDonalds workers wages? Are you just a better person entitled to a better wage?