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Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

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Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#2
I can't help but agree. Many companies that have explosive growth tend to depend on it. If the growth is explosive enough, they may end up eating their entire market. Now they have no growth (which is okay in some cases but); since they depend on it, they implode.

Either change your business model to use what you already have and optimize your existing assets... or implode.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#3
Is it standard practice that, as the CEO of one company and sitting on the board of another, that you use your company email in that regard? The reason why this was leaked was because the CEO of Sony Pictures did not isolate his CEO job and his "part-time" jobs, leading to leaks like this.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#4
Evan Spiegel might have a point in regard to Facebook "imploding" respectively declining in the medium term, although I would have not placed VC sponsored Ad-Money at the top reason.

Personally, I rather see a decrease of "traditional" user engagement as a growing risk for Facebook. I have the feeling that a lot of user attention is currently shifting from Facebook to other services as each FBs user stream seem is becoming ever more non-personal and is nowadays primarily used to push and promote offers and services and semi-public personalities.

That Snapchat on the hand I believe, might have an even higher chance of "imploding" due to its unsure commercial application as well as its probably super change affine / non-loyal users.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#5
Are marketers really putting blind money on Facebook like they do on other forms of offline advertising -- or they did with online advertising during the first dot-com bubble? Or are they putting up money, measuring their CPAs against LTVs and changing advertising tactics when CPAs get too high? There are lots of choices for online advertisements today and a platform will produce profits as long as the platform produces profits for its advertisers.

Snapchat's CEO clearly disagrees when he says: "VC dollars are being spent on user acquisition despite unknown [lifetime value] of users — a recipe for disaster."

So he's saying people take VC money and invest it in poorly devised advertisement strategies. I'm not familiar enough with VC-backed companies but is this that common? Are Facebook ads, AdSense, etc. just filled with dumb money from VC investments? In my experience, that answer is no, but maybe things are different.

Curiously, I'm wondering how Snapchat is valuing the lifetime value of their own users, considering revenue from their users is zero.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#8
post #2

I can't help but agree. Many companies that have explosive growth tend to depend on it. If the growth is explosive enough, they may end up eating their entire market. Now they have no growth (which is okay in some cases but); since they depend on it, they implode. Either change your business model to use what you already have and optimize your existing assets... or implode.

They've already changed their business model.

So long as Facebook are reasonably astute they have enough assets that they can just buy any competitor that looks promising. Their real challenge isn't remaining relevant to the market themselves any more; it's making sure they're quick enough to buy enough innovative startups so that Google/Apple/etc can't gain too much of the ad market and managing the process of integrating those startups in to the Facebook platform seamlessly.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#9
post #5

Are marketers really putting blind money on Facebook like they do on other forms of offline advertising -- or they did with online advertising during the first dot-com bubble? Or are they putting up money, measuring their CPAs against LTVs and changing advertising tactics when CPAs get too high? There are lots of choices for online advertisements today and a platform will produce profits as long as the platform produ…

> So he's saying people take VC money and invest it in poorly devised advertisement strategies. I'm not familiar enough with VC-backed companies but is this that common?

This was very common in the last dot-com boom. That time, Yahoo was the beneficiary of the funds. People were blindly throwing money at "internet advertising", without any clue as to whether they were getting any value or not. And VC-backed companies were doing even more so (and buying shitty Superbowl ads....)

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#10
I think this overstates the VC backed money that is going into Facebook ads. This also assumes that no other advertisers will come in behind them.

Advertisers go where the eyeballs are. With a billion people connected to Facebook, you have a lot of eyeballs, and thus money. That is not going to change anytime soon.

As long as the people use facebook, it will make money. Almost by default.

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