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Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

marketwatch.com

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Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#31

Post by nostromo »

I'm really worried about our economic future.

I think job creation has been decoupled from economic growth. That's terrifying for the lower class today, and will eventually be terrifying to nearly everyone.

I also think central banking has lost its effectiveness. We've had 6 years of 0% interest and money printing -- the pedal is to the metal -- but labor participation for working-aged citizens is stuck at a low not seen since the mid-1980s.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/09/E...

Scary stuff...

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#33

Post by happyscrappy »

api wrote: post #27
wavefunction wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I downvoted you for your trash analysis. I will be back this evening (1:45PM here at the moment) and I will cite sources until you scream for mercy. The loss of wealth for the average American (note I didn't say MEDIAN lol) is well-established at this point.

I periodically see these press releases from places like AEI (the American Enterprise Institute) and similar trying to argue that the loss of wealth for the average American is some kind of illusion and "things have never been better." Reminds me of the stories I've read about the glory days of the former USSR. As collectivized farming failed, Pravda printed endless stories about how farm yields were exploding. Peopl…

Except that in an open economy you can't control bond prices. The US pays very little to borrow money which would not be the case if they were faking it, unless you believe they have such good propaganda that they have fooled everyone. Seems unlikely.

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#34

Post by aliston »

jpetersonmn wrote: post #15
pvnick wrote: post #9

"The recession is over" has always struck me a political double-speak. We never left the recession; mainstream America just collectively forgot how it felt to have enough money. We have become accustomed to the 60 hour work weeks for folks fortunate enough to have jobs, chronic unemployment for those unfortunate enough to work outside of tech, the cheaper processed food, the increasing debt, and the lower standard of…

How do you figure we haven't left the recession? Since June 09 we've been growing and not shrinking, which means the recession was over. It may not be the boom we all want, however the recession is over by any reasonable measure.

You have to also factor in that the G component of GDP (C+I+X+G) has increased dramatically under president Obama [1]. The government can temporarily pull the economy out of a recession by paying people to dig holes and fill them up again. A bigger question is whether all of the government spending has created sustainable economic growth.

[1] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FGEXPND

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#35

Post by pcarolan »

This study uses 2007 as it's baseline which is like saying that lake levels are 40% lower than they were at the height of the last flood. Asset prices were overinflated in 2007, so you'd probably want to baseline somewhere between 2003 (the end of the early 2000s recession and 2007 to get a sense of how much worse off people actual are.

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#36

Post by api »

happyscrappy wrote: post #33
api wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I periodically see these press releases from places like AEI (the American Enterprise Institute) and similar trying to argue that the loss of wealth for the average American is some kind of illusion and "things have never been better." Reminds me of the stories I've read about the glory days of the former USSR. As collectivized farming failed, Pravda printed endless stories about how farm yields were exploding. Peopl…

Except that in an open economy you can't control bond prices. The US pays very little to borrow money which would not be the case if they were faking it, unless you believe they have such good propaganda that they have fooled everyone. Seems unlikely.

GDP is going up. We are not in a recession. That's not what I'm talking about.

Nearly all of the gain is being captured by a very small and apparently shrinking number of winners, while the majority are seeing flat to negative real growth.

It's not all bad news. There's never been more opportunity for entrepreneurs and people at the higher end of the skill or wealth curve. But the death of the middle is a trend that can't continue much longer until it drags down the rest of the economy and our entire civilization with it. How can you be an entrepreneur if there are no customers?

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#37

Post by sillysaurus3 »

pachydermic wrote: post #21
pvnick wrote: post #9

"The recession is over" has always struck me a political double-speak. We never left the recession; mainstream America just collectively forgot how it felt to have enough money. We have become accustomed to the 60 hour work weeks for folks fortunate enough to have jobs, chronic unemployment for those unfortunate enough to work outside of tech, the cheaper processed food, the increasing debt, and the lower standard of…

"Recession" means that GDP is shrinking, not growing. That's the definition of that word: noun: recession; plural noun: recessions 1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. So technically, the recession is over. There's not much room for interpretation there unless you choose a different definitio…

Even though pvnick was incorrect about their claim that the recession isn't over, we should try to look past that.

Their more important claim was that people have forgotten what it's like to have enough money. It's hard to dispute that. In the tech sector, most of us have "enough" money, but it's not the case anymore for the vast majority of people in the US.

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#38

Post by happyscrappy »

glesica wrote: post #29
jpetersonmn wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you figure we haven't left the recession? Since June 09 we've been growing and not shrinking, which means the recession was over. It may not be the boom we all want, however the recession is over by any reasonable measure.

It takes about 10 minutes on Google to conclude that, regardless of any technical definition of a "recession", the economy is terrible unless you you're in a handful of industries or happen to make your money by owning the means of production (shocking that the group for whom the system is named always seem to do just fine...) Here's a good example: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor... Some…

So as long as one persons wage is falling that's a recession? That makes the word meaningless.

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#39

Post by nether »

waterlesscloud wrote: post #14
MAGZine wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also worth noting that he inherited a hundred years of other president's failure and successes. Pinning the upward or downward movement of such a sweeping figure onto one person is the definition of disingenuous. e: not to mention my sibbling's comment that no, the president does not control the economy, the industry, people's spending and borrowing habits. Heck, not even the Fed. Reserve.

And yet the same President in question earns praise for decreasing unemployment and increasing GDP, even though he has the same lack of control over those. If you take credit for the good, you have to take blame for the bad.

He's not responsible for everything good that happens to the country during his terms, nor is he responsible for all of the bad. Is that ok?

Re: Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession

#40

Post by mahyarm »

glesica wrote: post #29
jpetersonmn wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you figure we haven't left the recession? Since June 09 we've been growing and not shrinking, which means the recession was over. It may not be the boom we all want, however the recession is over by any reasonable measure.

It takes about 10 minutes on Google to conclude that, regardless of any technical definition of a "recession", the economy is terrible unless you you're in a handful of industries or happen to make your money by owning the means of production (shocking that the group for whom the system is named always seem to do just fine...) Here's a good example: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor... Some…

A lot of business owners, large and small, still go out of business or do badly in recessions, who are part of that 'capitalist' group.
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