The silent yet steady substitution of unemployment benefits with federal disability insurance is well covered in an episode of This American Life [1]. We, as a country, have a shoddy system for re-training low-skills workers facing technological obsolescence. We have also set up a system under which unemployment benefits are largely a state liability. Disability, on the other hand, is federally funded. The intersecti…
The disability rate of 20-30 year olds really jumped in the last few years.
The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
131–140 of 288 posts
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
A more subtle point is that the incentive structure for men to work had has evaporated. In divorce (which is largely initiated by women), men stand to lose more in alimony and child support. The economics say that if you marry (and far more people decide not to do these days), you probably shouldn't be the sole breadwinner and you certainly shouldn't earn more than your wife. I know a number of couples where the man…
Alimony isn't just magically awarded in every divorce case, you know.
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you think the same rules apply to an information economy?
Why would they not?
Rules can define themselves, rules used to regulate the flow of information become information.
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#134The silent yet steady substitution of unemployment benefits with federal disability insurance is well covered in an episode of This American Life [1]. We, as a country, have a shoddy system for re-training low-skills workers facing technological obsolescence. We have also set up a system under which unemployment benefits are largely a state liability. Disability, on the other hand, is federally funded. The intersecti…
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
One common trend I have seen in my social circle is the lack of any employable skills. They may or may not have college degrees, but in general their degrees did not give them concrete job skills or they don't have a degree and no skilled trade. What would ideally happen is people learn a skilled trade if they are stuck on the job market. This training should also happen in high school.
Except the education system is bad at picking winners. What's in demand when you're in highschool is not what's in demand by the time you're entering the workforce.
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
just "these guys"? everyone will be screwed.
> just "these guys"? everyone will be screwed. Why? I'm pretty sure I'll be totally fine in retirement (predicted savings of $5M+).
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
just "these guys"? everyone will be screwed.
> just "these guys"? everyone will be screwed. Why? I'm pretty sure I'll be totally fine in retirement (predicted savings of $5M+).
Some experiments can be run in a spreadsheet. I assumed 40 years of work (optimistic) and google reports a median personal income of 32140/yr and average savings rate of 3.2%. Shadowstats reports an average inflation rate around 5%, thats sounds about right. The S+P 500 total return over the last half century has been 7% but it oscillates insanely from -5 to +17 percent per decade. I think it very unrealistic to assume the 50s or 90s will ever happen again, but whatever, I feel optimistic this morning. I modeled in a 1% annual decline in income, which is lower than actual but sounds vaguely realistic.
My spreadsheet model shows an inflation adjusted retirement nest egg of $51K for joe 6 pack median middle class dude assuming its never dipped into for medical, educational, or unemployment issues for J6P or his kids or parents (in other words almost everyone will not have the money). I'm also assuming smooth economic growth (LOL) for best compounding results.
It still affects you as most investment advisors assume 0% inflation, 10% rates of economic growth, etc. In a world of poverty for almost everyone, that sounds rather optimistic.
Some other interesting experiments... 15% annual growth rate still only gets joe 6 pack to about 10% of your goal.
Joe6Pack at 1% annual wage increase (which is totally unrealistic in era of long term decline) and 15% annual economic growth rate (LOL) and triple the median savings rate at 10% of gross income being saved for 40 years and no unemployment, medical issues, or educational costs for J6P or his parents or kids (LOL) is still only about 1/3 of your goal.
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#138The silent yet steady substitution of unemployment benefits with federal disability insurance is well covered in an episode of This American Life [1]. We, as a country, have a shoddy system for re-training low-skills workers facing technological obsolescence. We have also set up a system under which unemployment benefits are largely a state liability. Disability, on the other hand, is federally funded. The intersecti…
I'm happy if my tax money can help someone in need. However, I'm unhappy if it leads to creation of permanent poverty traps. Have any countries (perhaps in Europe or elsewhere) successfully implemented support systems that are fair both to the needy and to the taxpayers?
Re: The Rise of Men Who Don’t Work – And What They Do Instead
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
At 40+ you realize you've pretty much accomplished everything you're going to with your life. All those plans and ambitions? You've had 40 years to act, if you haven't done something yet, chances are you're not going to. Its all down hill from there. Hopefully you've got a family you can put you're energy into. At least this was how i felt 40+, ymmv.
I'm not 40 yet, I'm 29, but I feel like I've only had 9 years to act so far and I have another 30-40. Look at how old Elon Musk is and he's finally hitting his stride. Still got time man.
I'm not sure he's a great example. He has inertia and a lot of money made from when he was much younger. Take an average person at that age, middle class income, family, etc, and see if they can accomplish life changing goals that they just started chasing.
I'm not going to agree with the poster above that claimed that "At 40+ you realize you've pretty much accomplished everything you're going to with your life." but I think as a generalization it's probably closer to truth than feels comfortable (I'm 37).