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5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

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Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#11

Post by sargun »

thomasfoster96 wrote: post #3

The one thing I gather from that graph is that over weekends, IPv6 use spikes. I assume that this means that networks or devices at companies and schools are lagging behind at using IPv6?

Corporate IT tends to lag in these sorts of things. Given that most people have ISP provided CPE, and that's the only device in their homes, it allows the ISP to have a much easier time migrating that user to IPv6. The rollout mechanisms have been well studied.

On the other hand, corporations tend not to have the same level of skill, and focus in terms of networking as an ISP, like a Comcast, or an AT&T. Additionally, they're not as incentivized to move everyone to IPv6, because often times, it's easier, cheaper, and more realistic to buy some IPs.

Moving to IPv6 at the office is a difficult project for most, as there is still a ton of enterprise gear that's IPv6-less. Even at that, enabling enterprise applications with IPv6 tends to be a massive nightmare. Lastly, the security implications of IPv6 are not well understood by most people in the corporate environment.

Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#13

Post by AndrewDucker »

Worth noting that the traffic is more than doubling every 12 months.

2.5% in December 2013

1% in December 2012

0.4% in December 2011

0.2% in December 2010

If that carries on then it's 10% in 2015, 20% in 2016, and 40% in 2017, with everyone switched over somewhere in 2018/19.

Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#15

Post by padelt »

DieBuche wrote: post #8
skrause wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rate-limiting is still easy with IPv6, you just limit whole subnets (e.g. a /64) instead of single IP addresses. I guess Google has figured that out as well. I actually do believe that this is real traffic. Here in Germany the number of connections with native IPv6 is rising constantly. At home all my devices are always using IPv6 when connecting to Google services because I also have native IPv6. Those 12.26% for Ge…

In Germany anyone on the telekom network who has a new contract or changed an exisiting contract in the last 16 months or so has IPv6.

Also everyone on Unitymedia. Dual stack if you're a lucky older customer, DS lite (CPE has routable IPv6 and NATed IPv4) if you are new or get something changed.

Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#17

Post by richmarr »

AndrewDucker wrote: post #13

Worth noting that the traffic is more than doubling every 12 months. 2.5% in December 2013 1% in December 2012 0.4% in December 2011 0.2% in December 2010 If that carries on then it's 10% in 2015, 20% in 2016, and 40% in 2017, with everyone switched over somewhere in 2018/19.

80% in 2018

160% in 2019

Apologies for being flippant. Just making the point that you're extrapolating without spending time on the likely shape of that adoption.

It seems more likely that this is an S-curve, and that we'll continue to see IPv4 traffic for the next decade, maybe longer.

Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#18

Post by AndrewDucker »

richmarr wrote: post #17
AndrewDucker wrote: post #13

Worth noting that the traffic is more than doubling every 12 months. 2.5% in December 2013 1% in December 2012 0.4% in December 2011 0.2% in December 2010 If that carries on then it's 10% in 2015, 20% in 2016, and 40% in 2017, with everyone switched over somewhere in 2018/19.

80% in 2018 160% in 2019 Apologies for being flippant. Just making the point that you're extrapolating without spending time on the likely shape of that adoption. It seems more likely that this is an S-curve, and that we'll continue to see IPv4 traffic for the next decade, maybe longer.

I think it pretty likely that once we reach 50% it will switch from "That thing that techies care about" to "Something people assume everyone has", and that any remaining ISPs that don't provide IPv6 will rush to get it done.

I'm sure that IPv4 support will continue for a fair while though.

Re: 5% of Google's traffic is now IPv6

#20

Post by kibwen »

Can anyone explain what "latency / impact" means on the per-country graph? I can't quite make sense of it:

United Kingdom: 0ms latency, 0.02% impact

Romania: -10ms latency, 0.01% impact

Bulgaria: 10ms latency, 0.03% impact

Japan: 20ms latency, 0.03% impact

All that I can divine so far is that 20ms appears to be the threshold at which your country will receive a red tint regardless of your adoption percentage.

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