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The Fatal Pinch

paulgraham.com

171–180 of 208 posts

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very commonly heard refrain in the Valley is some variant of: "Would you rather own 100% of a company worth $1 million or 40% of a company worth $200 million?" Money is used to purchase acceleration. It's not totally crazy, although it implies very different trade offs as compared to running one's own business without investors.

The problem here is risk is ignored. If I were to rephrase the question as "Would you rather own 100% of a company with a 50% chance of success or 40% of $200 million company with a 1% of success?" then the answer we get is very different.

This is true. One can draw their own conclusions about those who say such things, and why the risk element is elided when they say it...

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#172

First time founder. My company is in a "fatal pinch." Similar to a previous comment by @LukeFitzpatrick, we built something for our alma mater that we thought we could sell to colleges for 50k/year. We got investment, we built it, we sold it to a few more schools but the software is not feature-packed and mature enough to attract sales fast enough. Higher ed also moves super slow even when you're doing well. We're st…

Where are you based? I found out the French government has a program to help companies doing things for higher education - my own startup targets middle and high school, so unfortunately I don't think I can benefit it. The thing is detailed here [0], unfortunately it's in French. I'd be glad to help if I can, drop me an email if you're interested (address in my profile).

[0] http://www.agence-nationale-recherche.fr/fileadmin/aap/2014/...

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#173

I agree with this article. Founders overspend once they get their first initial investment, and rely on the next investment too much. Founders should be paying more attention to burn and churn rates. I once saw one of my best friends fail his first startup. They had a kickass programming team, received investment and did a bunch of things wrong. 1) Spent the whole investment on Founders salaries. They had 4 tech prog…

> If you went out and hired 15 people before you even knew what you were building, you've created a broken company.

Funny thing is that you got your first round of investment, before you even knew what you were building.

What?

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#174

"Although your product may not be very appealing yet, if you're a startup your programmers will often be way better than the ones your customers have or can hire." Is this really true? I'm very sceptical. Does anyone have any evidence to back this up?

There are a couple factors at play here. First off, the average programmer is, honestly, not very good. The can just barely make anything useful, good luck having it also be well designed and coded, secure, robust, fast, etc. Second, programming is like wizardry to most non-programmers, it's hard enough for a professional software developer to judge another, it's nigh impossible for J. Average Businessperson to do so, even if they have a dire need for software development. In the average case you might have some contract go out which ends up being won by some enterprisey line of business app development house who poops out some horrible cobbled together tool based on Excel, MS Access, and a winform app somewhere in there to glue things together, and then bills the customer for 6 or 7 figures (I'm not even joking). Compared to that, your average startup is the dream team.

And what's fantastic about funded startups from the perspective of a software muggle is that not only might they have a product already in existence that you can check out and find reviews from other customers but they've also been given the stamp of approval by investors, investors who are likely far more knowledgeable than the average software consultancy customer. Just look at the Obamacare website debacle as a case in point of how incredibly difficult it is to a: find a quality development shop who can actually deliver what you want, and b: do so within reasonable budget and time constraints. And the difference between finding a good development shop and a poor one isn't merely a better quality product, it's a factor of maybe 2x or more in development time (which is, of course, tremendously valuable) and a factor of 10-100x in cost.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#175
post #173

I agree with this article. Founders overspend once they get their first initial investment, and rely on the next investment too much. Founders should be paying more attention to burn and churn rates. I once saw one of my best friends fail his first startup. They had a kickass programming team, received investment and did a bunch of things wrong. 1) Spent the whole investment on Founders salaries. They had 4 tech prog…

> If you went out and hired 15 people before you even knew what you were building, you've created a broken company. Funny thing is that you got your first round of investment, before you even knew what you were building . What?

It happens.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#176
post #44
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember David from Weebly noting that they narrowly avoided the pinch by becoming profitable (circa 2009?) Now AFAIK they are kicking ass.

Yes, the Weebly story is amazing. He covered part of it at Startup School a few years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_b228qEVi8

I keep mistaking your nick for pg's on comment threads. I am gonna call you "the other paul"(of yc) in my head from now on if you don't mind :)

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#177

How do you keep your employees in this market if you're lowering salaries across the board?

I'd suggest technology is a key attraction. People involved in startups are there not only because it might get big, but also because the technology they are using excites them.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also very surprised this happened. I've done my fair share of Ramen, can barely eat it anymore. I'd assume they sold the investor on selling the service to Universities at 50K each, the investor believed in them and that he'd get a good return in his investment.

Well in cases like this the investor should have known better. I really think your friends did OK. I sell into the university system and I expect that each sale will take me at least 12 month to convert. The positive is that once you sell a university customer you rarely lose them.

Yeah, I'm a little disappointed in my friends. I still think they have a product. But the whole team broke up. Awesome your making sales, and your right, universities will most likely continue using the same service once it's been adopted.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's not a whole lot VC can do about it at this point. Except ask for their money back :) If you think you can get away with running a sane growth company (100% Y/Y) and don't have to worry about the VCs asking for their money back, then the most rational thing to do is take the seed money and run the business as a "slow growth" business with an enormous runway. Unfortunately most VC's are aware of this and will…

VCs can't ask for their money back. It belongs to the company and is in the company bank account. They can refuse to give you more, and if they control the board they can try to put in a new management team, but except for cases of fraud or other malfeasance, they cannot get their money back.

Most seed fund investment is in the form of a convertible note these days ... it's a loan with the option to convert to equity later. Consequently VCs can ask for the debt to be repaid (within the terms of the note). Obviously they'll only get back what's left in the bank and assets but the idea that they can't ask for it back isn't really true.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#180
This is the story of the first startup I was participating into, back in 2000. The boss (and main investor) ruined himself (selling his Porsche, mortgaging his home, selling stock he should have kept...) while trying to get investors interested in a 0.1% done prototype of a project 10 years too soon (basically we were busy inventing the Cloud and Big Data). Sad story.
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