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The Fatal Pinch

paulgraham.com

31–40 of 208 posts

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#31
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several of my best investments have been from startups raising less than $500k. Justin.tv/Twitch returned 97x my original investment, and Weebly will likely be even more.

Presumably those were a while back? Do you think the climate has changed since then to make it much harder?

I think one thing that is happening here is that certain types of startups are throwing money at problems that need to be solved in order to grow enough that raising additional funds is easy and/or not required.

An example would be that the founding team isn't skilled enough to get through the product market fit stage, so they hire in order to fill those gaps. Or maybe it's a chicken & egg problem, which often requires lots of time and luck to crack.

With the high salary requirements that engineers and designers have today, especially in Silicon Valley, this means burn-rates get very high very fast, even with only a few employees.

I remember five years ago in most cases you'd take a major salary cut (which was made up for in equity) when joining a startup as a first hire. You took a big risk to be employee number one or two. These days the landscape is so competitive you not only get equity, but a great salary as well.

I wonder if this has something to do with what you're hinting at?

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#32
post #22
post #6

This is why I hate investing in startups raising $500k or less. You won't be able to raise again unless you have significant upwards progress.

on the contrary, most of my best investments have been in rounds of <$500k. i'm more afraid of startups raising megarounds as their initial round.

Interesting. For me, all but one that raised < $500k died.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#33
post #9
post #6

This is why I hate investing in startups raising $500k or less. You won't be able to raise again unless you have significant upwards progress.

Interesting... What effect does this have on your criteria for investment? Or are you saying that raising less might in and of itself make the investment riskier by implying that they've under-estimated how much runway they might need? I've often heard the advice that "it's not much harder to raise a million than it is to raise $250k, so you might as well raise a million" or some variation thereof. Is that true in yo…

No, the ones that raised <$500 were raising as much as they could. Perhaps startups that COULD raise $1m but didn't are a different case.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#34
post #10
post #6

This is why I hate investing in startups raising $500k or less. You won't be able to raise again unless you have significant upwards progress.

Several of my best investments have been from startups raising less than $500k. Justin.tv/Twitch returned 97x my original investment, and Weebly will likely be even more.

Did they have progress when they raised again?

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#35
That is so spot on. Put another way, the seed round is a peek to see if you can do what you say you can do, series A is a bet you can make it profitably, and series B is the gas to grow the market. As soon as you know your cash and your profitability cross below the 'zero' line you calk your investors that week and you ask them, call it or push forward. They say no, then you just roll it up. And I know, that is much much easier to say than to do.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#36
post #10
post #6

This is why I hate investing in startups raising $500k or less. You won't be able to raise again unless you have significant upwards progress.

Several of my best investments have been from startups raising less than $500k. Justin.tv/Twitch returned 97x my original investment, and Weebly will likely be even more.

Maybe this is because smaller investments = early stage, and at something like YC you can get more hands-on to help the founder succeed?

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#37
post #34
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several of my best investments have been from startups raising less than $500k. Justin.tv/Twitch returned 97x my original investment, and Weebly will likely be even more.

Did they have progress when they raised again?

For some definition of progress, certainly, but neither company was an obvious winner in the first couple of years.

The key is to stay very lean until you have definite product/market fit and can raise a huge growth round.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#38

"Although your product may not be very appealing yet, if you're a startup your programmers will often be way better than the ones your customers have or can hire." Is this really true? I'm very sceptical. Does anyone have any evidence to back this up?

Actually, it's more like this.

There are good programmers in the enterprise (meaning, say, investment banks or large corporations or governments) but they generally fall, ambition-wise, into one of three categories:

(1) those who want to become managers or software architects (or, in finance, quants and traders) and will define and oversee work but delegate the dirty bits. This would be fixable (they could oversee a team of mediocrities, who'd be grateful just to be employed) but they generally don't have the patience for that.

(2) those who want to do highly-theoretical R&D work that doesn't necessarily solve any immediate problems of the business.

(3) those who have a specialty (say, deep neural networks) and want to be in the umbrella of a large organization that can protect it. Pull them out of their specialties and they'll try to leave.

In other words, these supposedly stodgy non-technology companies do, contrary to stereotype, have good programmers (I've worked in a few) but the ones who are at all decent have career strategies that they expect to be able to implement in their full-time work. They won't work on "just anything" and if you stick them with the random muck that comes from the line of business or zealous "product people", they'll either leave or slack in order to learn new skills on the clock, and the project will be done poorly or even abandoned mid-flight.

The appeal of the $3000-per-day consultant is that he'll work on what he's told to do and he doesn't expect you to consider his career needs. He's not going to do a shitty job and leave after 6 months because the people allocating the work don't care about his career; that's what the money (4-6x typical salary) is for. He gets his education and career advancement on his own time and dime (but earns a premium to account for his unpaid work). And while he might not be a great (2.0+) programmer, he's better than anyone in-house who could actually be assigned a bad project without political friction or high departure risk.

The average Bay Area startup programmer, like the average software consultant, isn't great; but he's far better than the corporate serfs who get sloshed around on the worst projects. He might be 1.4-1.5; so Goldman's R&D engineers and it top quant-coders will be better, but he's a relative colossus compared to the in-house peons (0.7-1.2) in back-office IT who'd get assigned to grody projects based on internal processes.

(Of course, not all the work that consultants do is undesirable. You also have the specialists and those with elite levels of skill. My point is that a "mercenary" consultant will power through the ugly projects for the pot of gold, whereas in-house people expect investment in their careers.)

In other words: yes, Goldman can hire great people. But if you want to hire someone great to do a project where 99% of the work is mediocre (and the 1% is extremely careful and requires an expert) you want the $3000/day consultant because Goldman can't get anyone good who's in-house (and not getting a consulting salary) to do the work. One might ask: why don't they pay an internal person $3000 per day, as they would a consultant? The answer is that it'd have him out-earning his boss and they'd often end up promoting someone not on traditional definitions of readiness (increasing scope, leadership) but because he took on an icky project.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#39
post #22
post #6

This is why I hate investing in startups raising $500k or less. You won't be able to raise again unless you have significant upwards progress.

on the contrary, most of my best investments have been in rounds of <$500k. i'm more afraid of startups raising megarounds as their initial round.

Sam, out of curiosity, what is the average raise for a post-demo-day YC company now-a-days? (if it's public).

I wonder this 500K benchmark is still something useful to investors in the valley. My guess would be that there end up being only a few YC companies each batch raising <500K and I doubt the amount raised ends up being a good predictor of success.

Re: The Fatal Pinch

#40

"Although your product may not be very appealing yet, if you're a startup your programmers will often be way better than the ones your customers have or can hire." Is this really true? I'm very sceptical. Does anyone have any evidence to back this up?

Actually, it's more like this. There are good programmers in the enterprise (meaning, say, investment banks or large corporations or governments) but they generally fall, ambition-wise, into one of three categories: (1) those who want to become managers or software architects (or, in finance, quants and traders) and will define and oversee work but delegate the dirty bits. This would be fixable (they could oversee a…

This is spot on.

The last sentence is a very important point in enterprise IT shops: Lack of self-confidence in line managers is a big disincentive to hiring smarter developers. They worry that the smart developer (who often shows up with a bit of an attitude) will overshadow the manager and our point out their weaknesses.

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