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Hawking: AI could end human race

bbc.com

41–50 of 118 posts

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#41
post #33

There's not much to Hawking's claim. For a far better discussion based on deep knowledge, about the dangers of an AI , here's this reddit thread started by an AI researcher: http://np.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2mwdnc/iama_joe_rogan_a...

As far as I can tell, that guy is not an AI researcher, and his claims are very misinformed. Many knowledgeable people in the industry take existential risk from AI seriously, e.g. Google's acquisition of DeepMind was conditional on Google creating an AI ethics board specifically against such risks. For a more thorough treatment of the topic, see Bostrom's book "Superintelligence: paths, dangers, strategies".

(Disclaimer: I'm not a full-time AI researcher, but I've done a fair bit of math work for MIRI, so I might be biased toward the Yudkowsky point of view.)

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#42
post #18
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know it's far away? If I have to side with you or Musk (extremely intelligent engineer with insider knowledge of advancements), I'm siding with Musk.

Intelligence does not protect against stupidity, sadly. I'm all for siding with Musk, but authority does not guarantee correctness.

If you want to make big claims like that, you better be able to back them up. So go ahead, cough up a few hyperlinks to some conclusive and concrete evidence and research that absolutely rules out the potential of humanity-harming AI in this context.

Otherwise, you can quit your trolling.

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#43
post #9
post #6

It's interesting how people so smart in one field can be so ignorant in others, to the point of not being aware of their own ignorance. While science fiction and hollywood really love the idea of this magical moment where AI is created and becomes self aware and destroys us all, real AI is so far away that these concerns are laughable. It's just like all those dummies worrying the LHC would destroy the earth. It's fe…

How do you know it's far away? If I have to side with you or Musk (extremely intelligent engineer with insider knowledge of advancements), I'm siding with Musk.

I know it's far away because I develop software for a living. In software development, you have to understand the problem space in order to create something that works (duh). Relatively speaking, we know absolutely nothing about how human intelligence works from an algorithmic point of view, therefore we can't model it in software.

Sure, we can develop "AI" that is good at a very narrow range of tasks (e.g., playing chess), but that's a million miles away from developing a human brain modeled in software.

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#44
No, he's going to ruin all my meticulously planned plans!!!

This is why analysis exists. Anything that is computed ultimately results in a symbolic expression that is comprehensible to a human. If we find ourselves making illogical leaps because computers compute so much that we find the programs incomprehensible, I think that warrants the creation of new mental techniques to simplify, partition, and chunk the programs we create into human readable modules.

For every calculation tool that exists to do something or make a decision on something, there exists the potential or the development of a tool (or the design of a process) to balance it out. Computers may be powerful and alter our thinking on a fundamental level, where we see the entire world discretely, atomically, and logically (worst case) and believe everything the magic computer tells us to do, but this is no different than anything else we have ever done. Some people push the envelope, other people don't.

I could say that the way black holes are presented and illustrated in western culture has done more damage to the human psyche by creating an all powerful, inescapable mental abstraction for which to compose poetic analogies of the human psyche against, but I won't. Because people can choose to be idiots and fall into their own stupidity, or they can laugh at themselves quietly and continue to try to do whatever it is humans think they are trying to do. We flip a coin every time we think, act, explain, breathe, exist, create, and we pretend we know what the act of flipping that coin does. No one can know everything. Not stephen hawking, not skynet, not me, not my cat. My cat will always outsmart me.

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#45
post #36

To all those saying it is impossible: The point you are making about it being impossible is as moot as the one those that fear AI are making. From logical point of view, singularity (a moment when AI has modified itself to the point beyond our capacity of control or even understanding) seems possible. I don't see a way for us to tell what will happen when it hits. One needs to remember that AI itself may not be evil,…

I understand that a singularity by definition can never be reached. It's like the speed of light or absolute zero; infinity just out of reach no matter how much energy you spend trying to get there.

A black hole is a singularity. You can reach it, you just can't come back from it.

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#46
post #37

I've always heard the line, Aliens would never travel many light years to destroy/enslave humanity, because we're no threat, and they'd be enlightened enough not to. But the idea that we could stumble upon AI, and it could become hyper intelligent at an astronomical rate ("the singularity") - doesn't this make us a huge potential threat to non-AI life everywhere? We'd have to be quarantined. For our own good, and the…

AI seems more feasible than interstellar travel. I think the singularity or whatever is far further off than people guess because the stuff we don't know is a lot harder than we can know, but interstellar travel either requires massive breakthroughs in physics or engineering on a level we have yet to seriously contemplate.

the proponents of any given tier of AI approaches always claims that consciousness will arise out of just doing more of what they're doing now. I doubt it.

Of course, an AI that wipes us out before figuring out how to repair itself would be kind of dumb.

BTW a recent episode of Elementary was based on this topic and was, by the standards of network TV, stunningly accurate on all the issues.

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#47
post #15

There isn't a market for strong AI yet, anyway. We don't want machines that think like humans. We want machines that can perform certain tasks with an error rate less than or equal to that of humans (adjusted for other economical factors like price of labour). While strong AI is a great plot device for science fiction, it's still fiction. Sure, there are attempts in academia to replicate human intelligence, but even…

I disagree. If you could run a machine that performed equally well in a real-world environment as a human, at a lower cost than it costs to feed and pay a human laborer, it would be a no-brainer to invest in thousands of these machines to perform various consulting services that are bought and sold over the internet. And here I've only touched the slice of the world economy that exclusively consists of information-inputs being turned into information-outputs.

The market for general AI is massive. The only reason you can't see it is that no similar service exists. So this is not an argument.

(In fact, a similar service does exist: Indian IT outsourcing sweatshops, which while usually not delivering top-quality products still are massively profitable).

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#49
post #12

The article references clever bot as an example, so as of right now, I'm not very worried.

Maybe AI will destroy the human race by becoming so entertaining we won't want to unplug it.

Or do anything else except watch it and improve it.

(See also, Internet.)

Re: Hawking: AI could end human race

#50
My opinion is the dumb artificial logic is more dangerous than real artificial intelligence.

At the moment we have complex systems, such as international stock markets, which are dependant on rules pre-defined by developers and system designers. The more complex these systems are, the greater the potential for "dumb logic" to misdiagnose something and then start performing a series of events that would be, in the best case scenario, highly disruptive.

I guess a bit like how OCR is designed to detect patterns and determine what characters are the closest match. If you have some nonsense scribblings, OCR will still try to recognise those random shames as letters where as a human would spot that the markings are not intended to be letters and words. So if AI allows a machine to double check it's running parameters and spot what would have been processed regardless by dumb logic as incorrect (eg spot the random scribblings are not intended to be characters) then I'm all for artificial intelligence.

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