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From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

benjamincburns.com

131–140 of 234 posts

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#131

How long until a daily brain scan and body scan is a part of everyone's routine, the same way brushing your teeth is? Problems like these are untreatable if left for too long, but if caught early, there's sometimes hope. The solution seems to be to develop as many types of passive scanners as possible. The problem is false positives. But wasting a month needlessly visiting the doctor doesn't seem that bad.

In the UK when you move house you're required to go and have a checkup with your new local doctor.

It's preventative health care, not "sick care".

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#132
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False positives aren't inherently a problem. If you have accurate understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of a test, then you can take action to maximise the utility of the expected outcome. This means, for example, not necessarily performing a biopsy just because something is there (but it's probably benign). The cost of invasive procedures such as biopsies, and risk-increasing tests such as CT scans has to…

If full-body scans were, as you say, routine, the cost of the machine would be amortised and an economy of scale should prevail. That's not really true. The cost of the machine is amortised by having it be in use at all times. In my experience MRI's are already fully utilized. I've had 3 in the past year. Even during Diwali there was always someone immediately before and immediately after me, and I never have much ch…

I don't know about the financial model.

Google indicates you can pay up to $3M for a MRI machine and $100K/yr energy and required maint costs. Google indicates a median radiologist gets $300K/yr and to make the figures ridiculous I'll dedicate one radiologist full time to the MRI. Google indicates mean lifetime of a MRI machine is a decade. Google indicates a hospital remodel to make a MRI safe room and electrical and cooling and ventilation might exceed the cost of the machine maybe $4M. Google indicates budgeting 3 hours per patient is not totally unreasonable. There is maint downtime and testing and the radiologist probably wants to sleep occasionally, even if there are actual specific scans that only take 15 minutes.

So the total cost over the decade lifetime of a MRI machine

3e6 + 4e6 + 300e3 * 10 + 100e3 * 10

You don't need a calculator to add that up to a cool eleven million bucks for ten years of MRIs. However you divide that out and thats only three grand per day over that decade. Or if you assume a long term average of 3 hours per scan (a bit on the high side) thats $375 total cost per scan.

Google reports the average billing is somewhat under two grand, but my math shows about four hundred bucks. Even assuming only 50% utilization they can still only account for $800 per scan.

I'm thinking that despite the mantra / astroturf that MRI is really expensive to provide, its actually a huge profit center for a hospital. Not as bad as the proverbial $35 aspirin pill, but pretty profitable none the less.

Another way to run the numbers is if the fixed cost of having the machine and radiologist available is about $3K/day, and they get about $2K/scan in revenue, you may have been part of a long MRI train that day, but the average machine actually only scans 3 people every 2 days on long term average.

Sounds like a market that's either ready for disruption, or so well protected by regulation that it can't be disrupted.

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#133
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. My wife has yearly scans because of a tumour supressor gene mutation and last year they thought they spotted something on the ultrasound, so sent her for a CT. CT showed that it was pretty bad, que months of stressing and worrying about what was going to happen. Turns out it was a false positive, caused by an accessory spleen looking like a tumour. False positives do happen, and they can be pretty devastating -…

If you worry that much about a false positive, I'm sorry for you, but you have no idea how much worse things may get. Many people don't get to complain about a false positive! Stressing and worrying are both several orders of magnitude better than suffering and dying. Source: My case wasn't a false positive.

Haven't we been through this discussion recently, with regards to screening for breast cancer?

Harms of Screening Mammography: http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/pdq/screening/breast/heal...

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#134

I don't have a brain tumour, but I have had, and am still having, an experience which has made me think seriously about my mortality. I'm 31. About three years ago I started having three/four day long bouts of total delirium, roasting fever, extreme nausea, can't even keep sips of water down when it happens - by day three or four, I'm usually too weak to move, totally dehydrated. Two years on, my GP is still going "c…

The ineptitude of doctors never ceases to amaze me. One particularly idiotic fellow proudly announced to me and the entire office that he'd discovered I have diabetes. Even if that has been true, the manner in which he announced his pleasure at the epiphany made me want to punch him in the balls. hard. After a confused and sad ride home it only took a short talk with my extremely unqualified wife to convince me that…

I have strong upper chest pains (constant pressure), regardless of position. Went to first doctor, was told "it's just bruised ribs", even though I don't play any sports or do any serious workouts.

Went to a second doctor recently after a few months as it started getting worse. "It's just heartburn", even though I told him I already take a PPI, H2 blocker and calcium. I've had heartburn for 12 years and know this was a very different feeling, but he basically ignored me and proceeded to ask me about how often I went to church and about my sex life. I wish I was joking. So he wrote me a prescription for ranitidine (a weaker H2 blocker, sold as Zantac OTC.)

But thankfully the second time I was given a blood test and found that my vitamin D level was So I looked into this and found that D2 has poor bioavailability and depletes magnesium. So I obtained D3 and magnesium supplements, am taking a saner supplement level (10,000 IU daily), and have been feeling quite a bit better. Not perfect, but supposedly it can take three months to fully recover.

I was very surprised to learn that a lot of people develop random musculoskeletal pains in response to very low vitamin D levels. Neither doctor even considered that possibility.

I was very worried that this might have been something more serious, and it was basically impossible to convince either of two doctors to actually do some real tests just to be safe. When I read stories like this, I can't help but wonder, what if it was the start of cancer (which killed my father)? And by the time the symptoms got bad enough to not write me off right away, it'd be too late to treat it?

I've had similarly terrible experiences with fatigue during the day due to my job's oncall responsibilities. That doctor told me it was depression (I am absolutely not depressed), and tried to get me to start taking Zoloft, which I refused.

These GP doctors just don't listen to their patients nor take their concerns seriously. I'm sure everyone always assumes the worst when something bad starts to happen, and likely it does turn out to be nothing. But one in three people do develop cancer in their lifetimes. How the hell are we supposed to get it diagnosed early when doctors just casually dismiss us out of hand?

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ineptitude of doctors never ceases to amaze me Yeah there are stupid people in all professions but doctors in general are overworked and there's only so much specialized knowledge that generalists can hold in their heads. Who knows. Maybe this will help? http://www.businessinsider.com/ibms-watson-may-soon-be-the-b...

The managerial ineptitude of limiting doctor supply so they are overworked is even more medical system idiocy.

Not a direct response to what you said, but since this is a common discussion on HN, I just want to get some facts straight pre-emptively:

1) The AMA has nothing to do with limiting the supply of doctors in the US

2) The AAMC (not the AMA) formerly limited the number of medical students per-year in the US, but they stopped this practice sometime around 2004 with the stated goal of increasing the number of medical school graduates.

3) Even if we doubled the number of medical school graduates overnight, we still would not have more practicing physicians in the US, because the bottleneck occurs during residency (after medical school) - there are a very limited number of residency slots.

4) Residency programs in the US are funded by the federal government through Medicare, so increasing the number of practicing physicians would require increasing funding to hospitals that offer residency programs by increasing spending on Medicare. This is both politically complicated and incredibly expensive (training a resident is very cost-intensive when you look at the big picture).

So yes, there is definitely an issue with the number of practicing physicians in the US, but fixing it requires Congressional authorization to increase spending (and not just by a little), so it's unlikely to change anytime soon.

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#136

I'm sad for Steven and for all the other software engineers who tell similar stories. I don't have math or numbers on this- does anyone?- but I can tell from personal experience that just about every time some software engineer my age becomes mortally ill, it's brain cancer. There is something unstudied about what we do that causes problems. Personally, I had my biggest scare a couple years ago while I was working on…

[deleted]

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#137
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If full-body scans were, as you say, routine, the cost of the machine would be amortised and an economy of scale should prevail. That's not really true. The cost of the machine is amortised by having it be in use at all times. In my experience MRI's are already fully utilized. I've had 3 in the past year. Even during Diwali there was always someone immediately before and immediately after me, and I never have much ch…

I don't know about the financial model. Google indicates you can pay up to $3M for a MRI machine and $100K/yr energy and required maint costs. Google indicates a median radiologist gets $300K/yr and to make the figures ridiculous I'll dedicate one radiologist full time to the MRI. Google indicates mean lifetime of a MRI machine is a decade. Google indicates a hospital remodel to make a MRI safe room and electrical an…

A single machine is going to have multiple technicians and service more than 1 doctor.

A little bit of trying to find numbers suggests that 1 MRI machine might be feeding 20 doctors (if you've arranged for 56 scans a week to be the low end number and take into account specialization, this starts to make sense). I guess they are each spending a couple hours during many of their weeks.

You have labor at ~30% of cost, it looks like it should be more than 50%, and could easily be even more.

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The managerial ineptitude of limiting doctor supply so they are overworked is even more medical system idiocy.

Not a direct response to what you said, but since this is a common discussion on HN, I just want to get some facts straight pre-emptively: 1) The AMA has nothing to do with limiting the supply of doctors in the US 2) The AAMC (not the AMA) formerly limited the number of medical students per-year in the US, but they stopped this practice sometime around 2004 with the stated goal of increasing the number of medical sch…

So how about a residency system that doesn't depend on medicare government funding? Or accepting foreign residency programs? I wouldn't think canadian, scandianvian, british, german, australlian, etc residencies and doctors should be considered invalid for example. From what I know, even being a Sweden trained doctor makes it hard to transfer into the USA and get a licence.

Residents from what I know are not well paid, what makes it a profit cost center for them that they require government funding for it?

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ineptitude of doctors never ceases to amaze me. One particularly idiotic fellow proudly announced to me and the entire office that he'd discovered I have diabetes. Even if that has been true, the manner in which he announced his pleasure at the epiphany made me want to punch him in the balls. hard. After a confused and sad ride home it only took a short talk with my extremely unqualified wife to convince me that…

As the joke goes: Q: What do you call someone who finishes bottom of their class in medical school? A: Doctor.

I've been to my GP three times before I realized I've never even met him. I've been seeing a nurse practitioner.

Re: From hacker to hospice in seven weeks

#140
post #102
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I wouldn't want to do it with CT scans. But I think it's an area where a less dangerous, cheaper scanning method might save a lot of lives, even with our current techniques for treating cancer. Frequent scanning would mean people would find tumors when they're smaller, and only treat the ones which behave dangerously.

edit: I'm replacing my entire previous comment about the superiority of ct/pet-ct vs *mri scanning; it looks like some groups are doing work with MRIs that are comparable in accuracy and nearing clinical use. I still think daily whole body scans are a spectacular waste of human capital for relatively little benefit.

> I still think daily whole body scans are a spectacular waste of human capital for relatively little benefit.

I agree, and I'm not recommending we do that right now. But imagine if we had cheap, fast ways to do the scans. So much money is being pumped into cancer treatment right now, I'm just wondering if better cancer detection might be more beneficial. Our current treatment methods might get us a lot farther because we'd use them when the tumors are smaller, and we'd have a much better sense of how aggressive a tumor is.

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