Earlier quoted context omitted.
You should take a look at stock market returns over the last few years, this year included. If you purchased shares of a s&p500 index fund at just about any point in history, your net gain will be well over 5% annual growth. Even if you bought in at the peak of 2007 - the worst time you could have bought in recent history, before the ~35% decline in 2008, if you are still holding on to it today, it's about 6% annual…
>You should take a look at stock market returns over the last few years, this year included. This is exactly what scares me about it. It's frothy as hell. So is it a nice safe place to stash my retirements savings where it will yield 5% consistently until I retire? I don't think so. >1991 Japan and 2014 United States are no where near similar enough to draw that conclusion Let's see: 1) Huge crash in property prices…
Hard-won lessons about money and investing
91–100 of 264 posts
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#92The economics of the time (especially among proponents of centralized systems) focused a lot on “inefficiencies.” Why produce hundreds of iPad screen designs when only one is needed. Economies of scale. Coase’s answer to the question was transaction costs. The “cost” of weighing all the options and negotiating a deal to have you write a thousand lines of code to go into my bigger bundle of code.
In modern companies like Apple this is extreme. But, if you think about it in a manufacturing economy, it makes more sense.
Anyway, as I said, the more I think about it the deeper some of the concepts and implications seem to be. For example: (a) There are inefficiencies out there on the scale of East/West Germany. (b) Transactions costs are at the root of many/most major inefficiencies.
The part of this blog that got me thinking about this was “working for equity vs. salary.”
I think that for most people, the choice company they work for wass 80% chance and 20% uninformed bias. Applying for a job and interviewing is a big overhead (transaction cost) and your ability understand the company’s chances of success and the magnitude of this success isn’t very good. The fact that many people don’t know what percentage of the company their stock represents is the glaring proof. Prospective employees don’t have anywhere near the information that investors do. How much money is in the bank? What are revenues? Burn rate? Valuation at previous rounds?
The poverty of information and the fact that transaction costs make it impossible for one to consider more than the tiniest semi-random sample of opportunities is exactly the kind of dynamic I think Coase’s work implies.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
>You should take a look at stock market returns over the last few years, this year included. This is exactly what scares me about it. It's frothy as hell. So is it a nice safe place to stash my retirements savings where it will yield 5% consistently until I retire? I don't think so. >1991 Japan and 2014 United States are no where near similar enough to draw that conclusion Let's see: 1) Huge crash in property prices…
There are other, safer, kinds of funds beside stock funds. It sounds like what you want is a fund holding government bonds. Those are pretty safe, and will probably give you better return than the bank.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#94I'm surprised he doesn't mention real estate or investing in friend/family businesses as an option. This isn't as safe as index funds, but it is an option where you can increase your success rate by being competent. It probably has a risk profile similar to working for equity at a startup, an option only available to people who work in or around startups.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree. It's easy for Matt Cutts to say that you should take more equity, because he has only seen massive success. I've been in the Bay Area exactly as long as he has, and I've had 1 company out of 6 where my options actually made me money. The rest were all worthless.
You're completely right that I was very fortunate. All I'm saying is that if your goal is financial independence, it can be hard to get there on a straight salary, and that trying to get some sliver of equity can radically increase your odds of financial success. With that specific piece of advice, I'm trying to catch folks in Nebraska or Cleveland who are thinking about accepting a 9-5 job, not folks who are already…
Of course when I worked for poptel (.5%) I would have been able to retire if we had been brought out by the co-op
BTW in the UK BT 's latest employee 5 year share save returned £60k tax free and that is a scheme available to every one.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#96I'm of the opinion that the stock markets are now inherently unstable, and they will continue to crash every 7-10 years. I'm expecting a market crash somewhere between 2015 and 2017. Most of my money is in cash, but I do hold a few select stocks like AAPL, GOOG and TSLA. I also believe that the stock market is a game , not an investment vehicle. The nature of the market has transformed every since the day trader, qua…
So beat the day traders, quants on their own game. You dont have to trade daily, just buy stock of a good company at a reasonable price and sit back. Once you have invested in a good company then the next step is not to do anything foolish, like selling your shares just because the company had a bad quarter.
Have you read Ben Graham's Intelligent investor, if not, you should.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#97Everybody in the tech world is talking about investing in index funds. Historical evidence says this is the way to go, but when everybody is doing it, it makes me question whether or not it's the right choice. There's a possibility that the market is in another bubble right now.
the trouble with index funds is you participate fully in any crash/dogs eg index funds had to hold enron to the bitter end. some of my active funds saw the problems with the banks and got out before the crash now no index fund is ever likely to make up the difference - the active fund is now always ahead of the index
but the question is how do you select the active fund which will consistently beat the market in the future.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#98I added a comment on Matt's blog post but it's waiting moderation so I'll post it here to hear other folks' input. "Hi Matt, I usually enjoy your posts but I felt this one lacking in a major way. Investing is something that has huge potential (ie., 100 fold). This is something that I’m sure you’re aware of as an early Google employee (you were invested in the company via stock options, etc). On the other hand, invest…
I don't know why this has been downvoted, I couldn't agree more.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#99I'm surprised he doesn't mention real estate or investing in friend/family businesses as an option. This isn't as safe as index funds, but it is an option where you can increase your success rate by being competent. It probably has a risk profile similar to working for equity at a startup, an option only available to people who work in or around startups.
Nor did he mention Facebook stock. Weird.
Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing
#100I'm of the opinion that the stock markets are now inherently unstable, and they will continue to crash every 7-10 years. I'm expecting a market crash somewhere between 2015 and 2017. Most of my money is in cash, but I do hold a few select stocks like AAPL, GOOG and TSLA. I also believe that the stock market is a game , not an investment vehicle. The nature of the market has transformed every since the day trader, qua…
It's as frivolous as asking why the executives of Nike have millions but the majority of people who buy Nikes don't.