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Hard-won lessons about money and investing

mattcutts.com

61–70 of 264 posts

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#61

Lesson number 1 is unequivocally wrong and contradictory with the start of the article. He says you shouldn't invest your money in single stocks, but then advocates for you to invest your money (by way of forgoing salary in favor of equity) into a start up company with (by definition) no track record of success or guaranteed future. Not to mention that when the start-up tanks (which it will do statistically) you will…

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Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#62

I'm of the opinion that the stock markets are now inherently unstable, and they will continue to crash every 7-10 years. I'm expecting a market crash somewhere between 2015 and 2017. Most of my money is in cash, but I do hold a few select stocks like AAPL, GOOG and TSLA. I also believe that the stock market is a game , not an investment vehicle. The nature of the market has transformed every since the day trader, qua…

> I'm expecting a market crash somewhere between 2015 and 2017.

And so does everyone else who tracks the markets, exactly because markets exhibit inherently cyclic behavior and because they haven't been down in a while. An easy-peasy prediction to make.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#63
post #2

I'm at the start of a long career and trying to save sacrificially. I know if i over-save i still have it if i need it, but so far every dollar i have put into savings has been on a one-way trip! I wonder and worry about how to save up for later in life, and who knows what the political landscape will look like then. In my country inflation has been 2.16% on average during the years I've been alive. Where can I store…

I live in Australia. Here the interest rate on cash deposits is around 2.75%, or 3.6% for a 180 day term deposit minimum $10,000. Inflation the past few years has been between 2.2 - 2.9%. No point holding money in a bank account or term deposit as an 'investment' - I only hold cash because it's handy to have.

All the books I read on the topic of investment were intended for Australians, so my advice is to read two or three books each on investing in the stock market and real estate, and understanding your countries tax rules as they apply to investors. It has been said that if you read three good books on any subject you should be able to converse with the professions and understand what they're saying.

There probably isn't a place you can put money where a court order won't be able to touch it. Payment agreement before that happens is a good idea, but of course that isn't always possible.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#64

I added a comment on Matt's blog post but it's waiting moderation so I'll post it here to hear other folks' input. "Hi Matt, I usually enjoy your posts but I felt this one lacking in a major way. Investing is something that has huge potential (ie., 100 fold). This is something that I’m sure you’re aware of as an early Google employee (you were invested in the company via stock options, etc). On the other hand, invest…

Hey Dave, I approved your comment over on my blog--sorry about the delay. I also wrote a response which I'll paste below: Dave L, I concede that someone who is willing to put in the time and effort, they may become good at selecting stocks. Then again, they may not: I have friends who have spent a lot of time and effort studying individual stocks without much to show for it. And don’t even get me started on the finan…

> Because Buffett is counting on an index fund when he dies.

That's completely irrelevant. Nobody is going to get Buffet rich from index funds. After Buffet dies he won't be around to decide what to invest the money in so he picked index funds because they're a good conservative decision that will outperform most investors.

That does NOT mean that you can't do much, much better than that by, like Dave said, becoming an expert investor.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#65
For most people, the easiest way to become financially independent is to save aggressively.

That aside, I have always invested in a small number of individual stocks, with minimal management or effort, and only moving positions between companies slowly over time. Basically, I make bets on long-term trends that I view as technologically inevitable. I don't invest in sexy companies (though some become sexy later), I invest in companies that are undervalued relative to the technology trends. That strategy is pretty trivial but it has allowed me to beat the S&P index pretty consistently over decades (famous last words) with the money I don't have a better use for e.g. savings. In fact, the margin by which I beat the S&P has been slowly improving, which I think reflects the increasing ability of tech to move the needle on the economy.

Since this is a tech site, this would seem like a repeatable strategy that anyone could and would use. But apparently people don't. Of course, I could just be really lucky.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#66
post #3

> If you’re an employee working for salary, it’s going to be hard to reach that level of independence. ... You can try to radically lower your financial burn rate, but few Americans have taken that step. So many people are quick to dismiss living well within one's means as a way to financial independence. Here's the link to the facts again: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-sim... TL;DR: Live o…

>Assumptions: >– You can earn 5% investment returns after inflation during your saving years

This would maybe make sense in the 1990s or early 2000s but it's 2014!

ZIRP forever is the new normal, and judging by what happened in Japan post 1991, it's going to continue for at least two or three decades.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#67
post #2

I'm at the start of a long career and trying to save sacrificially. I know if i over-save i still have it if i need it, but so far every dollar i have put into savings has been on a one-way trip! I wonder and worry about how to save up for later in life, and who knows what the political landscape will look like then. In my country inflation has been 2.16% on average during the years I've been alive. Where can I store…

Having time and mind for saving is an excellent place to be. There are no guarantees with these things. As you say the only sure thing is that inflation will destroy significant portion of your savings in only few decades. If you think things in timespans of several years you really should look into investing. This way you don't sit on your money but buy something that generates value and thus will be valuable also in future.

Spread your investment over long time and wide range of different assets and you are as safe as you are going to get.

Usually people suggest passive index funds with low fees to do this in practice. Don't take their word for it but study yourself.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#68

Lesson number 1 is unequivocally wrong and contradictory with the start of the article. He says you shouldn't invest your money in single stocks, but then advocates for you to invest your money (by way of forgoing salary in favor of equity) into a start up company with (by definition) no track record of success or guaranteed future. Not to mention that when the start-up tanks (which it will do statistically) you will…

Instead of buying a bunch of lottery tickets he suggests getting a decent salary and a lottery ticket.

[deleted]

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#69

I added a comment on Matt's blog post but it's waiting moderation so I'll post it here to hear other folks' input. "Hi Matt, I usually enjoy your posts but I felt this one lacking in a major way. Investing is something that has huge potential (ie., 100 fold). This is something that I’m sure you’re aware of as an early Google employee (you were invested in the company via stock options, etc). On the other hand, invest…

Lately, even the experts have a hard time beating the SP500.

Re: Hard-won lessons about money and investing

#70
Everybody in the tech world is talking about investing in index funds. Historical evidence says this is the way to go, but when everybody is doing it, it makes me question whether or not it's the right choice.

There's a possibility that the market is in another bubble right now.

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