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Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

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Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#51
This article is pretty close to junk science reporting.

The core argument of the recently published paper it links to (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/11/12/1416625111.full...) is this:

1) No non-viral cause can be found

2) Viral load is higher in symptomatic animals

3) Animals inoculated with homogenized tissue from symptomatic animals almost all become symptomatic.

This argues strongly for a viral cause. The argument for the specific virus in question is much less strong, although it does look like a plausible candidate. The reason it is less strong is that the testing is entirely non-specific, and a plausible alternative explanation is that the symptomatic animals are having a tough time of it, immunologically, so an endemic but harmless virus is opportunistically going hog wild.

The thing that puts this article into junk science reporting territory is its ritual invocation of climate change, which others have pointed out. Let me be specific about what I see as the issues.

The article says flat-out that temperature is not an issue, because the animals don't get better when the temperature drops: "But the current die-off is different. Not only is it bigger, it doesn’t seem to be linked to water temperature. Where other die-offs had slowed down when the waters cooled, this time, the sea stars kept dying through the winter of 2013-2014."

Then it contradicts itself and insinuates that maybe it's climate change after all!:

The virus probably isn’t the whole story, both Lahner and Raimondi say. Lahner took sea stars that were disintegrating at 54 degrees Fahrenheit and cooled their water to 50 degrees. "They all went from falling apart, having their viscera hanging out, to pretty healthy in a day," she says. "I came back, and they were like, ready for the cover of Vogue. They were perfect." So temperature may play a role in the animals’ ability to recover as well.

The north Pacific basin, on average, has warmed by about half a degree centigrade from 1955 to 2013, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "That’s kind of a scary number," says Andy Allegra, a NOAA data specialist. "It’s very large."

There is likely something interesting going on here, but this is a pretty big "hmm... that's odd" moment that just goes by un-noticed.

Water temperatures around Vancouver are in the 60's in the summer, and drop to the low 40's or even into the 30's in the winter, so you would expect a huge seasonal effect if a change from 54 to 50 resulted in unhealthy animals suddenly being ready for the cover of Vogue". And yet--as quoted above--we are assured that the die-off continued in winter (even as far south as San Diego water temperatures can dip below 50 in January).

So this article contains a contradiction of Biblical proportions, the kind of junk reasoning you see in the gibberish of 9/11 conspiracy theorists and climate change denialists (the real kind, who think it's a hoax, not people like me who think nuclear power is a good option for dealing with it, although I often get accused of denialism on that basis.)

Science is the discipline of publicly testing ideas by systematic observation, controlled experiment and Bayesian inference. One way we test ideas is by testing as much of their deductive closure as possible: that is, all the things that would be true if the idea was true. If that "big scary number" was in any way significant, we'd expect a huge seasonal effect in the die-off, which is not observed.

Furthermore, if temperature has a huge effect in the laboratory and none in the field, there is something missing. Maybe that missing thing is pH, as the article suggests, but note how the otherwise data-heavy account gives no actual numbers on ocean acidification, merely telling us coyly that the oceans have become less basic, not how big the change is? That's because the story is really complicated and quite local--ocean pH varies a lot between locales, and yet seafood manages to grow everywhere: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjourna...

There is also curiously little mention of the effects of sea-star over-population on this outbreak of (likely) disease. Times were good for West Coast sea-stars in the mid-2000's. I saw species I'd never observed in the '80's or '90's. Population crashes, often due to disease, are not uncommon in nature following population booms. This natural boom/crash cycle is mentioned in passing, but not really given the attention it deserves. Deer populations on Vancouver Island are booming right now too, and when they crash in a few years it won't be due to climate change, although the specific causes may remain mysterious.

So this could have been an interesting story on the difficulties of doing good science in a complex natural setting. Instead it invoked the "climate change scary!" meme that has infected virtually every story that has anything to do with anything that happens on a scale larger than a single urban neighbourhood. It does no particularly good service to science to say, "I'm sure climate change is the cause but I can't prove it!" If you're sure, you're not doing science: Bayesian reasoning does not produce certainty.

And being "sure" of something you don't have anything like sufficient evidence for is not a good attitude for a scientist to have, and putting it on display like this emboldens those who believe that rather than being an alternative to faith, science is just another kind of faith (which it is not: http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=1331)

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a pretty big assumption in there. That the comet is approaching earth and not going to miss it by half a parsec or that the comet is infact a bit of dirt on the lens of the telescope... All of which need testing first before you start waving your hands around and start saying "WE'RE GOING TO FUCKING DIE - RUN!"

We operate in an uncertain world. In many cases it is hard to obtain 99.999% certainties, and we must act with less certainty. Not acting is a choice as well, and everyone bears the responsibility for that too.

[deleted]

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We operate in an uncertain world. In many cases it is hard to obtain 99.999% certainties, and we must act with less certainty. Not acting is a choice as well, and everyone bears the responsibility for that too.

Problem is we have about 50% certainty...

So, if we continue the thought experiment, and say thousands of people have been making observations of the comet for five years and have come to roughly 50% impact probability estimate, with multiple independent methods. And that impact would likely kill maybe a billion people.

And you say it is unacceptable for them to advocate doing anything?

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risks/a410777.html

Current impact risks overview is here. 50% chance of a large object would certainly be unprecedented.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.1126.pdf

Now, replace the comet watchers with paleoclimate researchers finding out what happened when the planet last time crossed 450 PPM (the other way around).

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is we have about 50% certainty...

So, if we continue the thought experiment, and say thousands of people have been making observations of the comet for five years and have come to roughly 50% impact probability estimate, with multiple independent methods. And that impact would likely kill maybe a billion people. And you say it is unacceptable for them to advocate doing anything? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risks/a410777.html Current impact risks overview…

That's not what I'm saying. I can't make it much clearer than:

a) suddenly out of the blue, a Ford Transit mutates into a toaster.

b) someone is "pretty sure it is related to the impending comet impact".

c) Everyone goes YAY SCIENCE!!!

Sorry but derision is the only thing left. It's not science, it's religion.

a) suddenly out of the blue someone delivers a load of fish.

b) Some guy doesn't notice this and goes "pretty fucking sweet; I'm totally wasted on mushrooms and I reckon that bearded dude over there turned that loaf of bread into all those fish. Damn I've got the munchies."

c) HE'S THE FUCKING MESSIAH.

There is no causality chain established other than a hunch.

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#55
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is we have about 50% certainty...

Inaction is always easier than action, so which way do you think that people will choose? If we do spend the time, money, and effort to do things like reduce emissions, will we be worse off than we were? Would it not make more sense to use renewable energy resources, and save up the 'easy' sources of energy (oil, coal, etc) for other applications?

Entirely agree!

But blaming everything on climate suddenly isn't the right answer. Perhaps someone lost a ship load of PCP in the sea and they just snuffed it. And they're trying to hide that.

Another hypothesis that could be tested rather than "fuck blame it on climate so we can get some funding and get some nice new Herman Miller chairs and a new MacBook each"

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the problem. There should be no activism and no causes in science. Each of them implies bias and results in less than ethical practice and unreliable theories. To ask for rationality and the application of the scientific method results in claims of denialism and instant burying of the opinion. That's not acceptable.

Scientists are not magical logic faeries separated from the seething mass of culture by a wall of pure mathematics. Science is intertwined in life. Once you have found that a species is being wiped out, you could stand on the sidelines and measure its decline, watching dispassionately, knowing that you can reach a good solid conclusion about what was killing them when the last dissection is fully documented, or you c…

You'd make a good politician because you make a bad human now with all that word twisting.

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've linked a short well made video below which addresses your arguments. TLDW Just because man's emissions are relatively small in comparison to the over all natural emissions does not mean they don't affect things. I implore you, (as you seem a reasonable fellow who values science) to give it a watch and see if you still feel the same way. I'm willing to watch or read any counter argument you care to link if you wi…

Can we please not have arguments via video? Surely if the arguments are good there is a write up somewhere.

Here is a very good presentation of CO2 measurement values:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

I'm still looking for a non-movie version that shows the whole curve we have (not just the direct measurements).

edit: forgot the link

Some more good writeups: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php http://climatechange.procon.org/

If anyone has questions - I study this stuff.

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientists are not magical logic faeries separated from the seething mass of culture by a wall of pure mathematics. Science is intertwined in life. Once you have found that a species is being wiped out, you could stand on the sidelines and measure its decline, watching dispassionately, knowing that you can reach a good solid conclusion about what was killing them when the last dissection is fully documented, or you c…

You'd make a good politician because you make a bad human now with all that word twisting.

I'd make a rubbish politician. I'd end up telling too much of the electorate that I think they are talking utter bollocks.

Also, I'm useless at feigning appeasement for the purposes of advancement, so any political career would in all likelihood be extremely brief.

However, from a purely Bayesian perspective, based on looking at your other comments, I am rather glad that you say I am a bad human.

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat amusingly, it was actually a remarkably comparable situation. There was a significant populist anti-relativity movement in Germany in the 1920s: http://www.mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de/en/news/features/feature7 >Although they had previously played no role in German academic life, during the 1920s scores of self-proclaimed researchers alleged to have proved the theory of relativity to be scientifically incorrect. Beca…

That's interesting, but it certainly was not one of the largest political debates of its era. That the situation climate change is in. So it's not a comparable situation.

"This world is a strange madhouse, every coachman and every waiter is debating whether relativity theory is correct. Belief in this matter depends on political affiliation." - Albert Einstein.

Re: Starfish are dissolving up and down the West Coast

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientists are not magical logic faeries separated from the seething mass of culture by a wall of pure mathematics. Science is intertwined in life. Once you have found that a species is being wiped out, you could stand on the sidelines and measure its decline, watching dispassionately, knowing that you can reach a good solid conclusion about what was killing them when the last dissection is fully documented, or you c…

You'd make a good politician because you make a bad human now with all that word twisting.

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