Live data from Hacker News

The demise of the dollar

independent.co.uk

21–23 of 23 posts

Re: The demise of the dollar

#21
post #10
post #3

It's an interesting threat, and one that we're going to have to keep out eye on. But I have reservations about how effective multinational cooperation on international monetary policy can be. One of the reasons that the dollar is the global reserve currency is because there is so much of it in circulation. No other currency is as liquid. Moving oil purchases of a bloc of countries to a non-dollar basket of currencies…

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

Well, I agree that we should transition to other energy sources, but that's not really topical to the article. It doesn't matter much whether we use oil or not domestically. It's whether or not major chunks of international trade will remain denominated in dollars. Oil just happens to be a major, internationally traded commodity, and oil markets are mostly denominated in dollars because the dollar is seen as the most stable/reliable currency (as opposed to the domestic currencies of oil-producing countries say).

The threat of oil-producing countries shifting their exchanges from dollar denomination to a non-dollar basket of currencies is that all of a sudden the demand for this vast amount of dollars in circulation outside of the United States will drop, and there's very little that the U.S. could do about that immediately. If the demand for dollars drops, its value relative to other currencies drops, and the United States will face massive inflation in imported manufactures, commodities, and raw materials.

Producing green technology at home may wean our dependence on oil, but doesn't do much to prevent our currency from collapsing due to a sudden drop in demand for it abroad.

Re: The demise of the dollar

#22
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

I wish we would make things again. I really do. There's so much tech that can be invested in to make a cleaner, more beautiful America - and yet all the factories for it are going overseas (Germany, Taiwan, and so forth). Why are we so far behind on the high-tech manufacturing curve? Did we just rest on our laurels for too long, or is something more nefarious afoot?

The United States remains the #1 exporter in the world in terms of aggregate value of goods exported. We still do make plenty of things in the United States.

The manufacturing that gets exported is the stuff that requires low- to medium-skilled workers. All the high-skilled manufacturing stays in the developed countries (i.e. U.S., Germany, Japan, etc.).

Re: The demise of the dollar

#23
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great insights, but I think we have to do more than keep our eye on it. I think it's imperative that we transition significantly to non-oil based energy consumption (as the Obama administration is encouraging). The problem is we've allowed ourselves to become too dependent on spending, accounting for 70% of our economy. Americans have become accustomed to cheap products, and gas, while at the same time turning a nose…

Well, I agree that we should transition to other energy sources, but that's not really topical to the article. It doesn't matter much whether we use oil or not domestically. It's whether or not major chunks of international trade will remain denominated in dollars. Oil just happens to be a major, internationally traded commodity, and oil markets are mostly denominated in dollars because the dollar is seen as the most…

Sorry for the late reply; I didn't see your response. The reason I say a transition away from oil is needed is precisely topical, and I disagree. It does matter whether or not we are dependent on oil domestically. Currently oil runs through our economy like woven thread. You raise oil prices and that causes immediate inflation because production and delivery of products depends on oil. With an economy that is 2/3 dependent on consumer spending you don't want steep price inflation. That's why it would be a benefit to not be as reliant on oil domestically. The value of the dollar could fall, yet domestic product prices wouldn't reflect it (as significantly) and as a consequence choke our economy.
Post reply on HN