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Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

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Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#3

Post by falsestprophet » 

  Needless to say, a lot of people, based off one story that I haven't yet finished, 
  now think I'm just another halfwit gamble-my-savings-away day trader.
The closest thing to a thesis of this post is that he is not a halfwit gambler as critics on Hacker News (including practicing market makers and quantitative traders) believe him to be.

  On some days, I feel the same way about myself [that he is in fact a 
  halfwit gambler].
Not looking good.

  You have no idea how much I've read up on financial history, probability, and
  behavioral finance. You have no idea the number of profitable 
  traders (whose track records I get to see or witness in real time) I've spoken
  to whom use a variety or combination of different methodologies.
Because you don't know what he knows, you can't be certain that he doesn't know anything. True. But, he doesn't record any specific knowledge here, so we still don't know whether he knows anything.

Looking worse now.

He then sets up several straw man arguments against him. But, amazingly, does not refute them.

Okay, I give up.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#4

Post by debacle »

Refuting crappy internet comments about your blog isn't really a recipe for success, unless your criteria for success is more pageviews. There were tens of people in that thread who were spouting off armchair economics like they were financial experts. That type of ignorant rambling should really be reserved for /r/economics or, better, /r/bitcoin.

It doesn't really deserve to be responded to, much less refuted.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#6

Post by howeyc »

Do TA proponents ever talk about the suggestions that the reason TA works is because of a feedback cycle?

That is, if you get enough people with enough influence (cash) all believing they can read tea leaves, and make similar movements based on that, it kinda works.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#7

Post by opendais »

debacle wrote: post #4

Refuting crappy internet comments about your blog isn't really a recipe for success, unless your criteria for success is more pageviews. There were tens of people in that thread who were spouting off armchair economics like they were financial experts. That type of ignorant rambling should really be reserved for /r/economics or, better, /r/bitcoin. It doesn't really deserve to be responded to, much less refuted.

Yes, but he is talking about trading penny stocks/pink sheets. He is on par with the people the "armchair economists" unless he is super wealthy and can prove it.

You sure you want to act like he is a financial guru?

"If you've been following penny stock trading circles on twitter for awhile, you'll know certain tales of legend were born on that day. One particular trader profited $1.2 million in a day. When that many traders produce their largest gains on one particular trade, you know it doesn't require some crazy genius, It's the stock that does all the work and makes life easy.

My day was just peanuts in comparison but it was still my personal best, as I made $33,000 (with no profit split! which felt amazing). The trader across from me, who I will affectionately nickname El Chango, had seen enough. El Chango was branch B's head trader. It killed him to see easy money slip away due to inaccessibility. He pulled CCG's principle owner aside and pleaded for him to enable access to the OTC."

His method?

"Simple. Look for the extreme volatile moves on massive volume. If the direction was down, find the first held bid. Buy. If the direction was up, find the first major seller. Short."

If it was really how that worked in the real world, it'd have been eaten up by HFT.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#8

Post by comboy »

You seem like a nice and rational guy, but it looks to me as if your post ended just after the introduction. Apart from the info that there are many profitable trades which success that cannot be explained by luck, I'd love to see counterarguments to other things.

For example, if you are a successful trader, it seems a kind of activity that scales very nicely. If you can be sure you are profitable in say a month (or a year), you are multiplying money, so using leverage or loans you should be able to basically have any amount of money you want (and what about trades in that case?). At least that is my understanding as a non-trader. I'd love to read some explanations for this, especially that I like your writing style.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#9

Post by opendais »

comboy wrote: post #8

You seem like a nice and rational guy, but it looks to me as if your post ended just after the introduction. Apart from the info that there are many profitable trades which success that cannot be explained by luck, I'd love to see counterarguments to other things. For example, if you are a successful trader, it seems a kind of activity that scales very nicely. If you can be sure you are profitable in say a month (or…

> If you can be sure you are profitable in say a month (or a year), you are multiplying money, so using leverage or loans you should be able to basically have any amount of money you want (and what about trades in that case?).

Its not that simple, sadly.

You can't buy $InfinteMoney$ worth of stock X in a single transaction, you end up moving the stock price as you buy/sell. This allows others to respond to your activity. At small scales, a system that appears to work will break down at large scales.

Re: Response to HackerNews comments on my trading

#10

Post by comboy »

howeyc wrote: post #6

Do TA proponents ever talk about the suggestions that the reason TA works is because of a feedback cycle? That is, if you get enough people with enough influence (cash) all believing they can read tea leaves, and make similar movements based on that, it kinda works.

> kinda works

I think it does influence the market, but it cannot make them all profitable. Unless you think that group of TA believers act as a big pump and dump scheme (but I guess most markets are too big for that?)

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