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What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

randalolson.com

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Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#61
post #17

"On the bright side, the longer your marriage lasts, the less likely you are to divorce." Emmm.. Not too surprising, is it? Divorces kind of tend to terminate marriages early.

It's not surprising, but it's not logically inevitable.

Suppose every couple divorced exactly on their 50th anniversary if they were both still alive. Then a couple that has been married 49 years is almost certain to divorce, whereas a newly married couple has a reasonable chance of dying first.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#62
Wife has a job too?

75% greater risk that she will be unfaithful; (which is major reason to divorce)

Helping your wife at home?

25% less chances of getting sex compared to couple where husbands don't help with dishes and laundry.

Pregnant after 30?

10 times greater risk of complications than for women pregnant at 20.

Pregnant after 40?

100 times greater risk of complilactions than for women pregnant at 20.

Marry to live in debt forever. Work together like crazy to pay off all these debts. Not even seeing your kids anymore. Also husband is a figure to laugh off from Simpsons to whatever is the new drama on TV. Stupid men marry nowadays. Really stupid.

Have no wife and kid?

Don't you dare to down vote! You have no idea what you are talking about.

No wonder America is in decline.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#63

He didn't address couples counseling and therapy as factors in keeping marriages going. There's always been marriage counseling; today it's a professional therapist you hire, but in the old days it was your priest/rabbi/minister, or perhaps an elder in your household, who advised you on how to get along. Today in First World industrial societies, couples just try to wing it, moving out from the parents' house as soon…

  [...]in the old days it was your priest/rabbi/minister,
  or perhaps an elder in your household, who advised you
  on how to get along.
...this is still very common, though perhaps it's a culture you aren't exposed to very often.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#64
post #12
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

survivorship bias much ;)

It's worth pointing out that in the end, all the statistics in the world don't matter to the specific case that you are facing. This isn't a trivial rhetorical flourish; this is actually a profoundly important truth about the world and statistics. You aren't dating/marrying a population... you're dating/marrying a specific member out of that population, and the direction of causality is that the population has the st…

This is missing the point. The statistical relevance here is about search costs and stochastic error inherent in attribute selection. Advice to "pick the right lottery ticket numbers" is not a proper strategy to playing the lottery. The lottery by construct is npv negative.

The only real-debate is wether or not marriage is a game of chance or one of skill. But distinguishing between the two helps to understand the actual complexity of the situation.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#65

Wife has a job too? 75% greater risk that she will be unfaithful; (which is major reason to divorce) Helping your wife at home? 25% less chances of getting sex compared to couple where husbands don't help with dishes and laundry. Pregnant after 30? 10 times greater risk of complications than for women pregnant at 20. Pregnant after 40? 100 times greater risk of complilactions than for women pregnant at 20. Marry to l…

Married, no debt, happy kids. I guess you could do it your way, but we didn't.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#66

None of these things make for a stable marriage. They are statistics about marriages studied. You don't get to draw the inverse conclusion. And besides just because a marriage doesn't end in divorce doesn't mean it's stable.

FTA:

  Of course, it’s important for us to keep in mind
  that these are all correlations with marriage
  stability, and they could be telling us any
  number of things. For example, the “having kids
  with your spouse” correlation could go either
  way: Either people in stabler marriages are more
  likely to have kids in wedlock, or people in
  less stable (unhappy) marriages tend not to have
  kids. All of the explanations I wrote above are
  my own interpretations of the correlations, but
  keep an open mind when thinking about what could
  really be driving these correlations with
  marriage stability.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#67

Wife has a job too? 75% greater risk that she will be unfaithful; (which is major reason to divorce) Helping your wife at home? 25% less chances of getting sex compared to couple where husbands don't help with dishes and laundry. Pregnant after 30? 10 times greater risk of complications than for women pregnant at 20. Pregnant after 40? 100 times greater risk of complilactions than for women pregnant at 20. Marry to l…

Married, no debt, happy kids. I guess you could do it your way, but we didn't.

Divorce rates at 50% (contrary to the statement in the article) are not my way really. This is the way of the society today.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Married, no debt, happy kids. I guess you could do it your way, but we didn't.

Divorce rates at 50% (contrary to the statement in the article) are not my way really. This is the way of the society today.

Ha! Divorce rates are because of serial-marriers. The great majority of marriages last a long time; the stat comes from the tail of careless, impulsive people who don't respect the institution. 'Society' doesn't get married; individuals do. You can do it your way, you don't have to care one whit what 'society' does.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#69

These statistics are interesting, but they are useless for individuals looking for a stable marriage, or couples attempting to foster one. Put simply, the headline is wrong. It implies this is information you can use to make a stable marriage. But all it provides is a summary of traits of existing stable marriages. Knowing those facts is unlikely to contribute to a stable marriage. In fact, if anyone took them seriou…

  [...] but they are useless for individuals looking for
  a stable marriage, or couples attempting to foster
  one.
I agree, as does the author if you read the bottom of his post.

That being said, I don't see these sorts of facts come up around here in discussions about sociology, childhood development, poverty rates, etc.

These facts may not be useful to people in the middle of parenthood or marriage, but they are useful to:

* young people that need some raw data to help them figure out what lifestyles might work best * people studying larger trends about society and how people are doing overall

It's true that the data doesn't point to a recipe for success, but it's still important to be aware of the data because it's true. Figuring out how it's useful is the next step.

Re: What makes for a stable marriage? Part 2

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Divorce rates at 50% (contrary to the statement in the article) are not my way really. This is the way of the society today.

Ha! Divorce rates are because of serial-marriers. The great majority of marriages last a long time; the stat comes from the tail of careless, impulsive people who don't respect the institution. 'Society' doesn't get married; individuals do. You can do it your way, you don't have to care one whit what 'society' does.

We are social animals. We shouldn't ignore statistics that show us the society is sick.

In my old country (Poland) just 20+ years ago divorces were almost unheard of. Today they are almost as close to the 50% as in the USA. Now stating it is all about individuals and totally ignoring what is wrong with the system, isn't a solution (imho).

Why my parents generation with (mostly) stay at home moms and dads working simple manual jobs, got married in early 20s and made happy couples in a rate of 90%+. Why they had 2+ children vs. one that we can afford.

I guess that would be very interesting to look at this.

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