Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
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Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#2'The key is that you first accept that making accurate long-term estimates is fundamentally impossible.'
My life has been much better since I accepted this. Thanks for the reminder.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#3Previous discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5596578
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#4The inaccuracy of your plan is equal to the amount of things you planned in the first place. It's a lot more important to focus on a goal and react according to what the journey throws at you.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#5[deleted]
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#6This is why I've learned to always under promise and (try to) over deliver. Whenever I think a project may take me 4 hours, I tell them 3 days. 1 week = 1 month, and so forth.
Another valuable technique is the Pomodoro one, dividing one's work into intense 25 minute chunks of time. One then starts to think about work in terms of number of Pomodoros, giving oneself better a better idea of quantities of work. There are other productivity and health benefits as well.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#7The obligatory reference to Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#8Every project has 'gotchas'. And I don't mean just every coding project, I mean every project anywhere, ever.
Part of the key of navigating those 'gotchas' is to immediately communicate it to your stakeholders when you run into one.
Sit down and watch HGTV for a an hour or two, and you'll see that carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and HVAC contractors all run into problems -
'Whoops, this wall is load bearing, we'll need a beam here and it's going to take us another 3 days to add it.'
'Your main drain is made out of clay, and we'll need to spend 25% of your budget to replace it, looks like you won't be getting that powder room after all'
'The main of your HVAC stack is right where you want to put that doorway, we'll have to spend another $5k on this project to re-route it.'
People that typically finance projects are used to hearing these kinds of problems. Don't assume they won't like hearing them and will fire you - that's a huge mistake. Be honest and upfront with them. Problems like these are not your fault, just be clear on what it's going to take to fix them.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#9Every project has 'gotchas'. And I don't mean just every coding project, I mean every project anywhere, ever. Part of the key of navigating those 'gotchas' is to immediately communicate it to your stakeholders when you run into one. Sit down and watch HGTV for a an hour or two, and you'll see that carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and HVAC contractors all run into problems - 'Whoops, this wall is load bearing, we'l…
The difference between programming and construction projects is that property owners have usually already invested huge amounts of money into the property, so an extra few thousand doesn't seem like a huge deal and the extra work is often financed as part of the mortgage. Construction contractors also don't promise "magic" like programmers do.
Re: Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence (2013)
#10I usually give "them" a shocker estimate, and my rationale is pretty simple - unknowns. And for the most part my estimates are usually right. If asked to trim it, I simply state that OK, I'll deliver what may not be the right product but then it will become a matter of maintenance instead of development. Your choice.