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In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

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Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#51

Post by mikeklaas »

xorcist wrote: post #35
cissou wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the amazing thing about Uber: it does increase demand. By making it easier and simpler to ask for a cab, and actually providing an enjoyable experience in a market where expectations are very low, they managed to attract people who didn't really "need a ride" before.

This does come up in every thread that touches Uber, posted from different accounts. But do you have any idea if this is actually the case? It sounds a bit implausible that measurably more people would suddently get a burning desire to call a cab just because the app is so cool. Numbers, or any facts at all, could certainly help make your case.

Anecdotally: yes, it has for me and many people I know.

It's not because the app is cool. It's because it eliminates the biggest points of friction of taking a cab (namely, ensuring that one arrives soonish, and payment).

It would be shocking if that didn't increase demand in the margin. Who knows what the magnitude increase is, though (I believe it is significant).

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#52

Post by jmccree »

xorcist wrote: post #35
cissou wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the amazing thing about Uber: it does increase demand. By making it easier and simpler to ask for a cab, and actually providing an enjoyable experience in a market where expectations are very low, they managed to attract people who didn't really "need a ride" before.

This does come up in every thread that touches Uber, posted from different accounts. But do you have any idea if this is actually the case? It sounds a bit implausible that measurably more people would suddently get a burning desire to call a cab just because the app is so cool. Numbers, or any facts at all, could certainly help make your case.

I can only offer anec-data from the Atlanta area, but I know multiple people (including myself) that either sold a car or removed buy a car from their plans solely due to Uber. I've heard a lot of people state they used to risk a DUI driving home now take Uber instead.

It's nothing to do with the app being "so cool", but being able to get a clean car that actually shows up and being able to pay with a credit card. If you call a taxi in ATL, you expect at least a 15-30 minute wait if they show up at all. 90% of the time the driver will be blaring music or talking on their cell the entire ride. Some times they will refuse to take you to places, or refuse to run the meter but demand $xx for the trip. (Happened multiple times to me, all my friends have similar stories.) If the meter is running you have to carefully watch that they don't drive longer routes or even literally in circles (happened to me). And at the end of the trip, it's guaranteed they will only want cash and to take a CC will likely result in a screaming match and attempts to charge extra fees.

When Uber hit Atlanta, it was awesome. A car that actually shows up in 5 minutes? Clean, quiet, with a friendly driver? Map of your gps tracked trip emailed in receipt and card on file charged? The reasons people avoided cabs were removed. I personally take far more uber rides than I ever did taxis, and I know many friends for who it's the same.

It's not that demand for rides wasn't there, it's just there was no supply of quality rides before Uber. Taxis in ATL do not provide an acceptable experience, and are used only if there are no other options. People who before might have crashed on a couch, drove home after drinking, not attended an event with limited parking, asked a friend for a ride, etc. are using Uber because it's easy and economical. I have no idea how big of a percent this is nationally, but among the city dwellers in Atlanta I know of, Uber has been immensely popular and used for trips people would previously avoid with taxis.

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#54

Post by saalweachter »

waterlesscloud wrote: post #26
potatolicious wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may not be lying - that could be raw revenue. Unlike white collar jobs driving a car for a living comes with a lot of costs that kill your actual take-home income, far above and beyond just taxes. Maintenance, repairs, insurance, and gas are all direct costs that don't really improve with economies of scale. Car payments too - though white collar workers may also be hit with that, but probably less so. I think t…

Even if it's raw revenue...where are the 100s of drivers making that much that Uber claims exist?

Could this be, hmm, not so much lying as willful ignorance?

There are probably middle-men in the Uber industry just as there are middle-men in the taxi industry, who own a car and pay people to drive it with Uber. If they have one account per car, the account could me making $100k / year via driving 24/7, and Uber could be choosing to believe that these accounts represent a single self-employed driver.

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#55

Post by toomuchtodo »

acchow wrote: post #36
xorcist wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> offering a Groupon deal was an easy way to attract new long-term customers en masse What does that even mean , at scale? If it is a money printing press for everyone involved, you have to postulate either that the entire market grows rapidly (for "local businesses", no matter what they do, in this case) or you've (at best!) created a middleman to tax all transactions in the system.

You bring up a fundamental difference between Groupon and Uber. Car riding services are actually increasing the size of the taxi riding market.

Only if the lower costs that enable that increase in the riding market are sustainable, which appears its not (at least until self driving vehicles are here).

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#56

Post by foobarqux »

2pasc wrote: post #38
pshin45 wrote: post #20

This is not based on any kind of deep analysis whatsoever, but I'm starting to get the same vibe from Uber as I got from Groupon several years ago. Groupon's promise to local business owners was that offering a Groupon deal was an easy way to attract new long-term customers en masse, despite the sizable up-front loss. History showed that that did not happen for many businesses who used Groupon. Similarly, so much of…

Quite honestly - do you believe that making more than $50,000 per year for a HS grad is a bad thing? I am not saying that they should not make more, but for most non college educated individuals - $50,000 is above US average income. Uber may have shady tactics, and might be deceiving drivers - that's true. But the reality is that the opportunities they are giving drivers are not insignificant. Unfortunately - these d…

Besides the number being wrong, it is precarious employment without benefits and therefore not equivalent to a $X/yr "real" job. Moreover I would expect Uber wages to decrease over time (unskilled, easy to acquire work)

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#57

Post by foobarqux »

7Figures2Commas wrote: post #46
pshin45 wrote: post #20

This is not based on any kind of deep analysis whatsoever, but I'm starting to get the same vibe from Uber as I got from Groupon several years ago. Groupon's promise to local business owners was that offering a Groupon deal was an easy way to attract new long-term customers en masse, despite the sizable up-front loss. History showed that that did not happen for many businesses who used Groupon. Similarly, so much of…

A key difference between Uber and Groupon is that with Groupon, unhappy business owners simply ceased their dealings with Groupon. With Uber, unhappy drivers may be able to inflict far more damage beyond quitting or jumping ship. Most threatening to Uber's long-term viability are putative class action lawsuits, such as one alleging that drivers were misclassified as independent contractors[1]. If Uber is forced to re…

I think the biggest threat to Uber is unionization (or other labor organizing).

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#58

Post by bbd »

We at Sherpa has collected around 1M trips from Uber and Lyft. The average hourly rate of Uber driver is around $15 -- varies among cities. If you work 8 hours a day for 365 days, you will earn around $43,800. Of course, if you drive for 24 hours a day, you will earn as much as $131,400.

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#59

Post by relate »

jordanpg wrote: post #37
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taxi companies that provide a lesser service will die off and be replaced by others that follow the example of Uber. I don't think Uber in its present form will shift the demand curve dramatically. Driverless cars will. A world with driverless cars could follow two models. Let's call them Apple and IBM. Apple: each household owns a driverless car. Perhaps it can be occasionally rideshared via UberX, Lyft, etc. In t…

You are far more optimistic than me about the future of driverless cars. Given N driverless cars, some fraction p will eventually run over and kill small children. Stand back and watch the hysteria and the end of driverless cars. Also, before driverless cars become widespread, they will need to be first proven and then regulated. Imagine the fantastic force of the driving lobby that will oppose that from happening: t…

You chose to make your point with probability, which is actually what will most likely make people accept driverless cars in the end.

It's amusing to read the same reasoning after striking away "driverless":

"You are far more optimistic than me about the future of cars. Given N cars, some fraction p will eventually run over and kill small children. Stand back and watch the hysteria and the end of cars."

or with elevators:

"You are far more optimistic than me about the future of automatic elevators. Given N elevators, some fraction p will eventually malfunction and kill small children. Stand back and watch the hysteria and the end of elevators."

If the accident probabilities can be brought to acceptable levels, why wouldn't we adopt them?

PS: With trains and subways we have 1 driver per dozens of passengers, where the savings gained from reducing it to 0 may not outweigh the risk increase/loss of safety feeling.

Re: In Search of Uber’s Unicorn

#60

Post by 2pasc »

kilroy123 wrote: post #42
2pasc wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite honestly - do you believe that making more than $50,000 per year for a HS grad is a bad thing? I am not saying that they should not make more, but for most non college educated individuals - $50,000 is above US average income. Uber may have shady tactics, and might be deceiving drivers - that's true. But the reality is that the opportunities they are giving drivers are not insignificant. Unfortunately - these d…

How are drivers making $50,000? According to the article it's more like ~$12 an hour. Working full-time, 40 hours a week, that's only ~25k. 12 * 2048 = $24,576

1/ They mention drivers making $1000/week. 2/ Smarter drivers are driving very gas efficient cars with much lower gas costs 3/ Wages are way better if you drive during peak hours. I did and it is pretty neat how much you can make.
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