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We Are All Confident Idiots

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Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#81

Post by Someone1234 »

obitoo wrote: post #78
vinceguidry wrote: post #76

The article makes a few generalizations about evolution that don't really hold up. The idea that evolution does not have agency needs to be re-examined in the light of the fact that animals themselves have far more agency than we realized. To use the author's example, cheetahs may well have all decided as a group to run faster, in the sort of 'social learning' way that we're just now starting to really get a grip on.…

"...we don't know how genomes hold on to experiences and then pass them along to our offspring. " Err they don't. That's Lamarckism theory, and I wasn't aware there was even a shred of evidence towards it. Sometimes when you don't know how something happens, its because it isn't actually happening

> Err they don't. That's Lamarckism theory, and I wasn't aware there was even a shred of evidence towards it.

There is quite a bit from the last few years. Gene expression in particular is a field we continue to learn a lot about [0] and several studies have suggested Lamarckism might have some merit [1].

Saying there isn't a "shred of evidence" is just scientifically untrue. There is some legitimate evidence that limited information could be passed from mother to child prenatally.

Your post is the classic Dunning–Kruger effect. Few in evolutionary biology would be as "sure" as you are, and you get less and less sure the more you learn.

[0] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK43787/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamarckism#Epigenetic_inherita...

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#82

Post by d23 »

prof_hobart wrote: post #6

> some familiarity with concepts that are entirely made up, such as the plates of parallax, ultra-lipid, and cholarine. In one study, roughly 90 percent claimed some knowledge of at least one of the nine fictitious concepts Is it possible that this is at least partly down to the phrase "some knowledge"? Knowing what parallax or lipids are might be seen as having some knowledge of the concept.

Honestly, even knowing they were made up my brain's first instinct was "yeah, those sound familiar." If they were just asking about "some knowledge" I can see how people might say, "hmm, yeah, that sounds like something I've heard before."

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#83

Post by PakG1 »

Swizec wrote: post #15
atmosx wrote: post #3

"As You Like It" by William Shakespeare Act 5, Scene 1: [...]The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool[...] I try to keep that quote in mind at all times. I believe it holds a great deal of wisdom, especially for me. For I am loud and opinionated. But I still fail when I need it most, at times when I am surrounded by (people who IMHO are extreme) idiots.

This is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect[1], the cognitive bias that unskilled individuals overestimate their ability and skilled individuals underestimate it. "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in two principal ways: unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate, while highly skilled individuals tend to rate thei…

Read the name of the OP's author. Go read your Wikipedia article. See anything? :D

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#84

Post by gumby »

obitoo wrote: post #78
vinceguidry wrote: post #76

The article makes a few generalizations about evolution that don't really hold up. The idea that evolution does not have agency needs to be re-examined in the light of the fact that animals themselves have far more agency than we realized. To use the author's example, cheetahs may well have all decided as a group to run faster, in the sort of 'social learning' way that we're just now starting to really get a grip on.…

"...we don't know how genomes hold on to experiences and then pass them along to our offspring. " Err they don't. That's Lamarckism theory, and I wasn't aware there was even a shred of evidence towards it. Sometimes when you don't know how something happens, its because it isn't actually happening

Actually, there has been some interesting demonstrating that epigenetic influences can affect gene expression in the offspring. Which isn't quite Lamarckism, but does imply some level of passing along experiences to the offspring.

Which isn't to say that the post to which you were replying didn't misunderstand what was meant by the word "agency".

I used to laugh at people who believed in an agency model and thought that humans were the "most evolved" (as opposed to fast breeding special like cockroaches, or for that matter cousins of ours like chimpanzees). I ascribed it to the hierarchical victorian world in which Darwin published (and the famous picture from that era of ape -> man). But of course it's ancient.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#85

Post by ccozan »

mgkimsal wrote: post #66
xhedley wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing about the Dunning Kruger effect makes me more inclined to ask other people how good I am at something instead of relying on my own opinion. Which I think would make my evaluation more accurate.

or it might make you more selective about who you ask for feedback?

would this be a meta-Dunning-Kruger effect? Chosing to ask only people who you know would give you positive feedback?

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#86

Post by innguest »

itchyouch wrote: post #70
byEngineer wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetical scenario: US Treasuries go south, the bubble bursts. The next day Chinese announce they start selling their Treasuries on the open market. So instead of keeping your money with the most indebted Government on the face of the planet, you keep it with the biggest creditor in the world. Doesn't sound as a bad deal, huh? And as an extra bonus just to make sure everyone drops US Treasuries ASAP to buy the Chi…

Except, isn't China working hard to keep the valuation of their currency as low as they possibly can?

Only while they're still hoarding gold. Once they start noticing they've bought most of the gold they can get in the open market without causing prices to soar then they will change gears.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#87

Post by innguest »

byEngineer wrote: post #20
lucio wrote: post #12

"epic housing bubble stoked by the machinations of financiers and the ignorance of consumers" Isn't he being prey of his own effect? So the "epic housing bubble"(consecuence) was caused by "the machinations of financiers(cause 1) and the ignorance of consumers (cause 2)" If this is true, why 2008? Clearly cause 1 & 2 were present waaay before 2008. So maybe the bubble have other causes?

The FED artificially kept low interest rates since 2001 till 2008. All that money had to go somewhere. It went to housing. Cause and effect, plain and simple. The same currently nobody seems to understand that we have even lower interest rates today. From 2008 till 2014. And all this money goes to (primarily) US Treasuries. US Treasuries are currently the most expensive in its 300 year history. Mortgage APR fixed for…

Glad to see someone here that understands what is going on.

Did you really move out of the US because of the coming crisis? I'm really curious about this. I understand there will be riots and it will be unstable for a while but how much chaos are you expecting?

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#88

Post by byEngineer »

tomp wrote: post #80
byEngineer wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetical scenario: US Treasuries go south, the bubble bursts. The next day Chinese announce they start selling their Treasuries on the open market. So instead of keeping your money with the most indebted Government on the face of the planet, you keep it with the biggest creditor in the world. Doesn't sound as a bad deal, huh? And as an extra bonus just to make sure everyone drops US Treasuries ASAP to buy the Chi…

Hm.. I don't know why you completely changed your reply (I won't quote the original here),but this has nothing to do with my question/concern - how can commoners, workers without a lot of capital, "prepare" for a situation like this (i.e. so that their lives don't break to pieces along with the rest of the economy).

Have useful skills. In the worst case scenario it will come to trading services or products. I.e. you are a good web developer and can build a website for a carpenter who will fix your roof in exchange. Some other might know how to fix cars or mechanics. Learn skills that will become valuable in such a scenario.

The best investment is your own skillset. Actually, the "workers" as you call them might be in better position in this scenario as they usually have better and broader knowledge of fixing every day stuff than let's say accountants or software engineers might have.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#89

Post by byEngineer »

wwweston wrote: post #77
byEngineer wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetical scenario: US Treasuries go south, the bubble bursts. The next day Chinese announce they start selling their Treasuries on the open market. So instead of keeping your money with the most indebted Government on the face of the planet, you keep it with the biggest creditor in the world. Doesn't sound as a bad deal, huh? And as an extra bonus just to make sure everyone drops US Treasuries ASAP to buy the Chi…

> US Treasuries go south, the bubble bursts. The next day Chinese announce they start selling their Treasuries on the open market. Selling treasuries seems to be more for sovereigns that are looking to raise money rather than park it. Buyers of US treasuries appear to be in the "park" camp.

the point is that once they see that the FED wants to keep inflating they might realize that they have parked their assets in pretty risky asset.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#90

Post by Bargs »

mathgenius wrote: post #71

It astounds me how many people will just make shit up rather than profess their ignorance. I'm not even sure if they are even aware of their lack of knowledge, it is as if they discovered this lump of meat in their skull that emits random verbiage and they assume this must be truth. Like a little tv in their head, power up and go. So the next time someone says to you they don't know something, watch out, this person…

Everyone is guilty of this. You, me, and everyone else on earth. Ignorance of your own ignorance is what buoys overconfidence in the first place.

From the article:

"The American author and aphorist William Feather once wrote that being educated means “being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don’t.” As it turns out, this simple ideal is extremely hard to achieve. Although what we know is often perceptible to us, even the broad outlines of what we don’t know are all too often completely invisible. To a great degree, we fail to recognize the frequency and scope of our ignorance."

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