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We Are All Confident Idiots

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Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#11

Post by waterlesscloud »

georgemcbay wrote: post #9
praptak wrote: post #5

Anecdotal evidence from a fun show, plus the mandatory reference to Dunning-Kruger. "Unfortunately, Kruger and Dunning never actually provided any support for this type of just-world view; their studies categorically didn’t show that incompetent people are more confident or arrogant than competent people." http://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-k...

> plus the mandatory reference to Dunning-Kruger. Well, the article was written by David Dunning, the one the effect is half-named for, so it is almost literally mandatory that it is mentioned.

This is a very literal LOL moment.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#12

Post by lucio »

"epic housing bubble stoked by the machinations of financiers and the ignorance of consumers"

Isn't he being prey of his own effect?

So the "epic housing bubble"(consecuence) was caused by "the machinations of financiers(cause 1) and the ignorance of consumers (cause 2)"

If this is true, why 2008? Clearly cause 1 & 2 were present waaay before 2008. So maybe the bubble have other causes?

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#13

Post by [deleted] »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #10
kevinwang wrote: post #4

I'm pretty sure that for the Kimmel segments, they ask the interviewees different questions and later edit in a different question that makes the original answer seem funny.

> I'm pretty sure that for the Kimmel segments, they ask the interviewees different questions So, without evidence, you're confident of this?

[deleted]

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#14

Post by lucio »

In the curved-tube image, clearly the ball will exit with a clockwise spinning, because it'll be rolling on the external wall of the tube (based on the "Newtonian principle" of inertia). I'll bet if you try it as a experiment (inside the atmosphere) the ball will follow "C"... Am I a confident idiot?

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#15

Post by Swizec »

atmosx wrote: post #3

"As You Like It" by William Shakespeare Act 5, Scene 1: [...]The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool[...] I try to keep that quote in mind at all times. I believe it holds a great deal of wisdom, especially for me. For I am loud and opinionated. But I still fail when I need it most, at times when I am surrounded by (people who IMHO are extreme) idiots.

This is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect[1], the cognitive bias that unskilled individuals overestimate their ability and skilled individuals underestimate it.

"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in two principal ways: unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate, while highly skilled individuals tend to rate their ability lower than is accurate. In unskilled individuals, this bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude. Skilled individuals tend to underestimate their relative competence, erroneously assuming that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others."

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#16

Post by waterlesscloud »

"Because it’s so easy to judge the idiocy of others, it may be sorely tempting to think this doesn’t apply to you. But the problem of unrecognized ignorance is one that visits us all."

This means YOU, person who thinks you see through it all.

You don't.

This applies to you too.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#17

Post by spain »

lucio wrote: post #14

In the curved-tube image, clearly the ball will exit with a clockwise spinning, because it'll be rolling on the external wall of the tube (based on the "Newtonian principle" of inertia). I'll bet if you try it as a experiment (inside the atmosphere) the ball will follow "C"... Am I a confident idiot?

I was actually thinking the same, shame there wasn't an answer in the article.

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#18

Post by lucio »

spain wrote: post #17
lucio wrote: post #14

In the curved-tube image, clearly the ball will exit with a clockwise spinning, because it'll be rolling on the external wall of the tube (based on the "Newtonian principle" of inertia). I'll bet if you try it as a experiment (inside the atmosphere) the ball will follow "C"... Am I a confident idiot?

I was actually thinking the same, shame there wasn't an answer in the article.

The "right" (too simplistic) answer in the article is "B".

"One group knew the right Newtonian principle: that the ball would continue in the direction it was going the instant it left the tube—Path B. Freed of the tube’s constraint, it would just go straight."

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#19

Post by Spearchucker »

Swizec wrote: post #15
atmosx wrote: post #3

"As You Like It" by William Shakespeare Act 5, Scene 1: [...]The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool[...] I try to keep that quote in mind at all times. I believe it holds a great deal of wisdom, especially for me. For I am loud and opinionated. But I still fail when I need it most, at times when I am surrounded by (people who IMHO are extreme) idiots.

This is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect[1], the cognitive bias that unskilled individuals overestimate their ability and skilled individuals underestimate it. "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in two principal ways: unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate, while highly skilled individuals tend to rate thei…

Another interesting slant on this is imposter syndrome.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impostor_syndrome

Re: We Are All Confident Idiots

#20

Post by byEngineer »

lucio wrote: post #12

"epic housing bubble stoked by the machinations of financiers and the ignorance of consumers" Isn't he being prey of his own effect? So the "epic housing bubble"(consecuence) was caused by "the machinations of financiers(cause 1) and the ignorance of consumers (cause 2)" If this is true, why 2008? Clearly cause 1 & 2 were present waaay before 2008. So maybe the bubble have other causes?

The FED artificially kept low interest rates since 2001 till 2008. All that money had to go somewhere. It went to housing. Cause and effect, plain and simple. The same currently nobody seems to understand that we have even lower interest rates today. From 2008 till 2014. And all this money goes to (primarily) US Treasuries. US Treasuries are currently the most expensive in its 300 year history. Mortgage APR fixed for 30 years at 4%. For 15 years at 3.5%. When the real inflation rate felt by consumers is at about 10%. Why nobody sees that? People don't like to think. They prefer imaginary fantasies where everything is just fine to brutal reality of the unproductive economy running from a bubble to bubble sponsored only by the USD being reserve currency of the world.

Once the US Treasuries bubble bursts, the same moment, the bubble in the US Dollar and America will burst too.

We're living in the final stages of the final bubble, mother of all bubbles in the mankind history. So we have house prices in bubble territory, car loans in bubble territory, Wall Street in bubble territory, VCs/startup scene in bubble territory. Enjoy the ride! But you don't want to be there for the bubble burst of the world reserve currency. I'm already on the other side of the pond.

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