Have you run your %w[Buy Sell Hold] indicators over historical data to see how accurate your suggestions are? It would be really nice to offer this feature for transparency and to keep yourselves honest. It could also improve your product and help users to better understand when you make errors. Does your app do sentiment analysis on tweets? That would be insanely cool if you get it right.
Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
51–60 of 75 posts
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're pulling as much free data as we can but have plans to transition onto a paid data source as soon as we can.
Oh hey, that's awesome, I was under the impression there wasn't any free data sources available. This would make FinTech way more accessible for startups. Which ones do you use?
Shoot me an email at chintan@capp.io and I can go into more detail :)
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Totally see what you're saying, and we definitely want to get into the educational aspect at some point. But Netflix fell because of earnings, and GTAT was a fundamentally horrible company (our site wouldn't have recommended it). From what we've seen, retail investors tend to lose money when they invest with their gut, and that's the biggest issue. They hear some news and go and buy that company. They don't know how…
Will do. Point about NFLX wasn't the drop -- stocks go down and it's almost always stair-steps up, elevator down. It was that literally just days before ER CNBC put an analyst on TV crowing about $600 PT. How many millions of dollars did that person lose for the total viewership of CNBC and other outlets that carried her advice? You read an analyst report from Goldman saying "we like apple going into the fall, you sh…
Options might not be the best advice for the target audience.
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#54Have you run your %w[Buy Sell Hold] indicators over historical data to see how accurate your suggestions are? It would be really nice to offer this feature for transparency and to keep yourselves honest. It could also improve your product and help users to better understand when you make errors. Does your app do sentiment analysis on tweets? That would be insanely cool if you get it right.
We're in the process of building a backtest for our ratings. We'll be writing about how they perform soon.
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#55It looks neat. Great job. For market sentiment you are just showing tweets. How about if you just show if market sentiment is +ve or -ve? I think you are taking only fundamental analysis into account to suggest buy or sell otherwise you would not suggest GPRO as a buy.
Thanks!
Yes, definitely, right now it is just opinions but we do want to analyze for actual sentiment (bullish vs bearish).
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#56Have you run your %w[Buy Sell Hold] indicators over historical data to see how accurate your suggestions are? It would be really nice to offer this feature for transparency and to keep yourselves honest. It could also improve your product and help users to better understand when you make errors. Does your app do sentiment analysis on tweets? That would be insanely cool if you get it right.
That's a terrific idea (the backtest - sentiment analysis is interesting but the backtest could be a core part of the offering).
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#57Above all, congrats on shipping. The problem I have is, you may have built a better mouse trap here, but for the last 20 years the retail investor -- your customer -- has been the mouse. And few people in your industry acknowledge that. The stock market has a built-in upward bias of 3-5 percent. It represents the premium over the risk free rate that entices people to invest in equity instead of debt (bonds, treasurie…
As usual in HN, the meat is in the comments. Thanks for the pointers to tastytrade and dough. Great sites.
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#58Above all, congrats on shipping. The problem I have is, you may have built a better mouse trap here, but for the last 20 years the retail investor -- your customer -- has been the mouse. And few people in your industry acknowledge that. The stock market has a built-in upward bias of 3-5 percent. It represents the premium over the risk free rate that entices people to invest in equity instead of debt (bonds, treasurie…
There are some people doing it right, though. Check out TastyTrade.com. Your solution for retail investors who are getting burned in high beta tech stocks is to go put on a bunch of complicated options positions? That seems like kind of crazy advice. Maybe just buy some SPY and go do something more interesting than stare at options prices all day.
Sure, you can buy an index and forget it. Or, you can buy the index and then sell a covered call on it every month at 1 standard deviation out of the money. You decrease your basis and earn a monthly income, at the risk only of capping your upside if SPY surged upward. One sd out of the money options will expire worthless 85% of the time. No "staring at prices" required.
It's not your fault if you're scared of options (or scared for the masses). It's because retail investing has been taught and presented totally backwards for 20 years. Options have the same risk as the underlying. They are only more dangerous because they give you leverage. So you trade 1 lots or 2 lots. Your capital at risk in my apple spread example is an order of magnitude less than buying even 10 shares of Apple stock at the then price of 5000+
The retail investor understands rankings and price targets and no load mutual funds and other things we've said are I,portamt. I can teach you vertical spreads in a few hours and that is all you need to use options in your investment strategy.
In a vertical spread I can tell you with certainty that your probability of profit is equal to the max loss divided by the width of the strikes. Max loss is the width of the strikes less the credit you received when you sold the spread. So if you sell the 190-189 put spread on the spy bc you think it will go up, and you receive .35 for the trade, your Max loss is .65 so your probability of success is .65/1=65%. Whether or not that's a good risk to take depends but it's better than buying Netflix because some guy on tv invents a price target.
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#59Near as I can tell, this site is basically Google finance with a bunch of nicely color coded indicators of various components of the stock. It looks pretty, prettier than google finance. At a glance, I can easily tell whether you think I should buy or sell that stock. This is nothing but stock market info porn. All you are doing is using web design to convince me to take seriously your opinions on whether GS or TWTR…
Thanks for the feedback. We're trying to serve the less educated investor so we take basic fundamental analysis and automate it while making the insights more accessible to someone who is less financially literate. It's interesting that you bring up personalization too because we're headed in that direction with customizing reports and creating recommendations based on factors like risk profile, age, and retirement p…
I thought that yummyfajitas' point was that fundamental analysis doesn't work, like all public forms of stock market analysis. Financially illiterate people are even less likely to understand that, which means that making the "insights" accessible is actually worse for the user than having them not be accessible.
Re: Show HN: Cappio – stock research that isn't overwhelming
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're pulling as much free data as we can but have plans to transition onto a paid data source as soon as we can.
Oh hey, that's awesome, I was under the impression there wasn't any free data sources available. This would make FinTech way more accessible for startups. Which ones do you use?
Quandl[1] is one such resource of free stock data.
[1] Quandl.com