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Why Inequality Matters

gatesnotes.com

61–70 of 462 posts

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#61
The "r > g" debate is interesting. I think the problem is more subtle than that.

One of the problems is that people get different r's. Just look at VC firms. A pension fund that invests in venture capital funds gets mediocre returns: nothing much better than they'd get from an index fund, and often less. VC partners collect 2-and-20 and get to allocate favors (because it can benefit their careers to make decisions that are suboptimal for the portfolio, and they often do). The "real r" in that engine might be higher (if VCs focused on technical excellence rather than their own careers, I think we'd see quite a respectable r) but the delivered r is mediocre. That's just one example.

To go further, and I don't know how to solve this: if you have good relationships with various counterparties (especially, banks) you can get a low-risk r > 15% in arbitrage. Contrary to stereotype, arbitrage is neither risky (it's low in risk, and most arbitrage blow-ups occur because some hotshot trader got bored and started taking unauthorized positions) nor is it socially harmful (it provides liquidity to markets, which is a good thing). It is, however, not open to most people.

There are many things that cause "wealth decay" or normalization. I'll name four. Hyperinflation and violent revolution are the most disruptive (sorry San Francisco, but disruption is a bad thing). Taxation is the smoothest but can be ineffective (loopholes). Wealth management is yet a fourth: at some point, a large fortune has management overhead and, as its owners become less interested in day-to-day running of the money, much of that excess "r" goes to the agents than to them.

As for "r >? g", I'd prefer two things. First: I'd like that everyone have access to the same r, but I don't know how to achieve that. Second, g isn't constant. World economic growth is 4.5% per year. I believe that it could be 8% or 10% with some heavy R&D investment, and with better (and, quite frankly, smarter) people running the world. The all-time record high for world GDP growth is 5.7% in the 1960s, but we have so much more technology, and the shape of economic growth is (while I don't believe in a "singularity" of the theatrical sense) faster-than-exponential.

Even now, we have a world in which programmers (not 10x or 2.0+ engineers, but just regular programmers) become 10-12% more productive each year due to tool improvements. Motivated, ambitious programmers can do 30% per year. The bad news is that it's almost impossible for a programmer to grow her income at any rate near that. In fact, as she becomes more experienced, she's also more specialized and dependent on her employers (or clients) for great projects. They'll pay her pennies on the dollar relative to what she's worth, that charge being for the "favor" of allocating the good work. The reason why 10x engineers only make 1.3-1.5x salaries (until they become consultants, at which point it's more like 2-3x) is that their employers are very good at playing the "we can give you a raise, or we can give you career-positive work" game.

The software economy is at the fore of what's happening to other industries, but people in most sectors are a good deal poorer. We're comfortable upper-working class people complaining about our slide into the upper-middle-working class, but people outside of tech don't have anything to lose.

What we actually need to focus on is g, and r_labor. We want a high r_capital and an even higher r_labor. Sadly, badly managed economic growth tends to make r_labor negative. That happened in the American 1920s with agricultural commodities (contributing to spiral rural poverty, which led to the Great Depression) and it's happening to all human labor in the 2010s.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#62
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spending doesn't do as much as starting or investing in new companies or even philanthropy itself. Gates and Pickety agree on the estate tax which would help for people trying to sit on their wealth and simply pass it along to their heirs. Of course the estate tax needs some improvements.

[deleted]

It's a fiction that money is just sitting around not doing anything.

Given money is just an abstraction that is used to allocate goods and resources that appear in the real world, someone not spending money (or destroying money) means they are letting everyone else's vote count that much more.

If a person has a bunch of money but feels they have less insight than the average person (weighted by money owned) as to how it should be allocated, then society is actually better off if they never use it.

Now the government or specific charities or someone selling things they might otherwise buy might be worse off than if they spent/invested/donated it all (at the expense of those that wouldn't have received any of the money), but them doing absolutely nothing with it is taking away from no one, and in fact raises the value of everyone else's economic "vote" of how resources will be allocated.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#63
In what way would consumption tax address capital accumulation?

Also, using 1910-1940 period as an example to show that Piketty is wrong doesn't make much sense given that Piketty's data show that inequality have actually lowered in that particular period.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#64
post #10

I must say Bill Gates, in his post Microsoft avatar, continues to surprise me constantly. This is a refreshingly candid and sanguine review of Piketty's book from someone who was a ruthless capitalist not so long ago. Gates rightly (and self-servingly) also points out that Piketty does not consider philanthropy as a means to correct some of capitalism's imbalances. Here's a few of Gates' conclusions: > Piketty is rig…

>But rather than move to a progressive tax on capital, as Piketty would like, I think we’d be best off with a progressive tax on consumption. Think about the three wealthy people I described earlier: One investing in companies, one in philanthropy, and one in a lavish lifestyle. There’s nothing wrong with the last guy, but I think he should pay more taxes than the others.

Investing and consumption should be treated equally.

Investing is not inherently 'better' than consumption. Both create jobs. Both are done for selfish reasons.

The only difference is that shifting the tax burden to consumption instead of investing is inherently regressive - since the poor spend more than they save and the rich save more than they spend.

Saving is its own reward. It doesn't need added tax incentives. Having added tax incentives is just another way of covertly favoring the rich.

Who do you favor with the tax system? The guy who successfully invested in the startup and reaped massive rewards AND the guy who invested in a pets.com? Or the guy who blew all the money on cocaine AND the one who spent it on a private education for their kids (tax treatment: consumption)?

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#65
post #10

I must say Bill Gates, in his post Microsoft avatar, continues to surprise me constantly. This is a refreshingly candid and sanguine review of Piketty's book from someone who was a ruthless capitalist not so long ago. Gates rightly (and self-servingly) also points out that Piketty does not consider philanthropy as a means to correct some of capitalism's imbalances. Here's a few of Gates' conclusions: > Piketty is rig…

Piketty does not consider philanthropy as a means to correct some of capitalism's imbalances

Oh, please. The poor don't benefit from philanthropy. The poor benefit from a more balanced system. This reeks of justification.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#66
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm not sure I understand your other option. If the government doesn't have control over the flow of wealth, why do you think it will not just increasingly flow to those in power? Up until roughly 1903, the US didn't have any personal income taxes. There was a small business tax, and this was it. Gates' own example of old money no longer existing didn't really point to examples such as the Waltons, but to families w…

Seems like a very small amount of evidence to base such a large idea on. You could probably form the same argument against the more modern consumption taxes. Since for many this translates to a sales tax, and not the early excise taxes that are covered under the same category. (Right?) Though, your argument falls more heavily on the mistake Gates seems to have also made. The type of wealth that the book refers to as…

>This is somewhat important, because much of what would have been the "old money" in the US was effectively disrupted by massive technology changes.

This is the point I am trying to make...if this old money had been reinvesting in technology over the past 150 years, it might have been possible to maintain it. Fortunately in the US, the mechanisms were not in place for the government to help these rentiers maintain their wealth, and they weren't reinvesting in technology, so they are no longer wealthy.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#67
Must be some American specialty. At the end, Bill Gates sees Philanthropy as (part of a) solution. This must have something to do with the US-American history and background? I heard that opinion so often and we are in deed in an era of big philanthropists (like Bill himself). But I (no American, and maybe missing some genetics for it) can not see any solution in it. The biggest philanthropists today are in the US, but also the US is one of the countries, where inequality rises fastest. So, by this viewing alone, there must rise some doubts about it.

Also, you could compare philanthropy with the "foreign aid" that western countries give to poorer ones for decades now. Did it help? In many cases, it made things worse, because the money did not help the people to help themselves, but made them addicted to the aid.

The point is also that philanthropy -- as it might silence the own conscience -- is often the overflow of the overflow. We give, because we have more than we need and than we give what we need least. But what people really need, is not somebody that throws pennies in your hat, so you can buy some old bread -- but what they really need, are equal chances -- to be able to visit the same universities, to have the same jobs and to earn the same money as other people with the same talents.

You might argue: But Bill also fought his way from "rags to riches" -- no, that is not right. Bill already was born in a well being family and visiting visited Harvard College. With such a background, it is much easier to come from rich to riches, as if you come from Uganda slums (or even Harlem).

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#68
post #40
post #10

I must say Bill Gates, in his post Microsoft avatar, continues to surprise me constantly. This is a refreshingly candid and sanguine review of Piketty's book from someone who was a ruthless capitalist not so long ago. Gates rightly (and self-servingly) also points out that Piketty does not consider philanthropy as a means to correct some of capitalism's imbalances. Here's a few of Gates' conclusions: > Piketty is rig…

>Gates rightly (and self-servingly) also points out that Piketty does not consider philanthropy as a means to correct some of capitalism's imbalances. It certainly helps, but in a well-designed system philanthropy wouldn't be required. Philanthropy is a symptom rather than a cure.

I would posit that it is also a cure, but for the person's conscience. One of the reasons people engage in philanthropy is because it makes them feel good about themselves. This especially holds true for Bill Gates. He was a ruthless capitalist for decades before he realized that's not the kind of legacy he wants to leave behind. (I don't say that to cheapen his efforts -- on the contrary it makes me respect him more.)

You pose a great question though: would philanthropy exist in a well-designed system? To answer this we must first decide what "well-designed" means, but I'm sure everyone could agree that it would involve a system in which poverty does not exist (since poor people are the primary recipients of the vast majority of philanthropy). So then the question becomes: if there were no poor people, would we have philanthropy? I think we still would for the reasons I described above: at the end of the day, helping others makes us feel good about ourselves, and there are a lot of people who need help for whatever reason above and beyond a wealth transfer.

Re: Why Inequality Matters

#69
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with relying, even partially, on philanthropy to correct some of the imbalances of capitalism is that one encounters the free rider problem. There is also the issue where a very wealthy person has as their philanthropic cause something which few others think is a good choice of philanthropy. Such decisions should be made by society as a whole through their elected representatives. I know this wasn't the m…

>The problem with relying, even partially, on philanthropy to correct some of the imbalances of capitalism is that one encounters the free rider problem. Do you think that the free rider problem is corrected by state-run welfare programs? I'd be skeptical of such a claim, myself. >There is also the issue where a very wealthy person has as their philanthropic cause something which few others think is a good choice of…

Regarding your last paragraph. It's a problem if too much money is given to causes that don't really benefit society as a whole. There is also the fact that there are no instances of philanthropy ever being at a high enough amount to provide for the general welfare of all of the poor. Only government programs have ever been enough to do this. Government programs scale better than philanthropic ones.

It is true that philanthropic organizations can focus on areas neglected by government (society). This is a good thing. However, relying on the good will of others to do this voluntarily does not make for good public policy. I know you weren't advocating that a society use only charitable giving to provide for the needs of the poor. I suppose it is the case that I believe that government is more efficient than charities in terms of scale and sustainability. Hence my desire to rely more on government and taxation. I don't advocate relying solely on this mechanism and I'm not opposed to someone being very wealthy per se. A balance is needed and I don't know where the sweet spot is for the optimal solution.

The free rider problem in question was the issue of some very wealthy people deciding not to give anything to charity to help others. To avoid this particular free rider problem taxation can be used. This forces participation so to speak.

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