A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula • Hacker News Board

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#31

Post by JamesSwift » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 3:16 AM UTC

ericdykstra wrote: post #30

JamesSwift wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a reason you seem to favor head-to-head over, say, a 50/50 structure?

I tried to spread it around. My general strategy during the last month was: $40 in head-to-head (5 each of $1, $2, $5) $50 in double-ups (5 each of $5) $10-20 in big tournaments (usually just the $2 tournament with 10,000 players) I put my best overall lineups in the head-to-head and double-up format, trying to limit too much exposure to one team unless it was an obviously superior play to do so, and 5-10 different l…

Interesting. My mental approach is more a grinder mentality where I spread my rosters across the 50/50s, avoiding the tournaments for the most part. I only enter the rosters I feel absolutely great about in those. This is all NFL though, so could be different.

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#32

Post by sambrand » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 5:45 AM UTC

rebel wrote: post #29

I've always wondered, do you need a licensing deal to use individual player stats etc. to run a site like this? If not, it seems like the barrier to entry would be quite low and you wouldn't even really need the network effects that poker requires.

No. The stats seem to be in the public domain. See: http://www.silha.umn.edu/news/summer2009.php?entry=195089

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#33

Post by darklajid » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 7:25 AM UTC

fleaflicker wrote: post #7

I have never understood why daily games are legal. The outcomes can be determined by random events like injuries or the weather. How is this not gambling?

Not trying to be snarky, but I never understood how the stock market works (it seems just as random).

In fact, the article has a paragraph where one player is offended that he might look like a gambler and is compared to a .. stock market investor? Trying to set fantasy sports apart from gambling didn't work for me that way..

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#34

Post by mlla » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 8:33 AM UTC

dynofuz wrote: post #2

I've been thinking about this recently. A developer could do so much better (he's still copying from spreadsheets). Who wants to put this guy out of business with me?

I've been doing some models for live betting on ice hockey, but am now thinking of working on models for other sports as well. Would be nice to discuss about this and other ideas on sports betting and fantasy sports! My contact information is on my profile.

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#35

Post by johnm111888 » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 2:04 PM UTC

sambrand wrote: post #32

rebel wrote: post #29

I've always wondered, do you need a licensing deal to use individual player stats etc. to run a site like this? If not, it seems like the barrier to entry would be quite low and you wouldn't even really need the network effects that poker requires.

No. The stats seem to be in the public domain. See: http://www.silha.umn.edu/news/summer2009.php?entry=195089

NFL was thinking about saying they own the stats -- afterall it is their product. Needless to say that would require lots of lawyers but could potentially bring in huge new revenue stream.

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#36

Post by johnm111888 » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 2:08 PM UTC

dynofuz wrote: post #2

I've been thinking about this recently. A developer could do so much better (he's still copying from spreadsheets). Who wants to put this guy out of business with me?

his competitive advantage is the algorithm not the tools he's using

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#37

Post by pitt1980 » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 2:15 PM UTC

dynofuz wrote: post #2

I've been thinking about this recently. A developer could do so much better (he's still copying from spreadsheets). Who wants to put this guy out of business with me?

I'd be interesting in putting heads together

email me at pwzst1@yahoo.com

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#38

Post by lazyant » Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 7:37 PM UTC

duwease wrote: post #22

fleaflicker wrote: post #7

I have never understood why daily games are legal. The outcomes can be determined by random events like injuries or the weather. How is this not gambling?

It's legal because no major industry has turned their lobbying efforts on outlawing it yet. There's no clear philosophical line between gambling and, say, investing.. there's just (decreasingly) moral crusaders and (increasingly) interests who profit from keeping things illegal outside of their personal holdings.

This. Basically it doesn't compete directly with casinos (casinos bribe, I mean lobby politicians to pass anti-gambling laws).

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#39

Post by rohunati » Thu, Oct 16, 2014, 9:24 PM UTC

swanson wrote: post #3

It's been interesting to see the migration of online poker players over to daily fantasy sports (DFS). It definitely feels like the early days of online poker - tons of new sites popping up, heavy TV advertising, lots of new money coming into the "sport". I just started playing DFS this season and it's pretty addictive. Obviously, I don't think I'll be getting rich off it (the "I turned $5 into $50k" stories are just…

Here's one thing I've been curious about for fantasy football.

Stats are obviously important, but I'm not sure they can ever replicate simply watching film. For instance, two weeks ago, Odell Beckham Jr of the NY Giants caught 5 catches for 44 yds and a TD. What the stat line doesn't tell you is that he actually smoked his defender a few times, was open in the endzone on a play, and if Eli had chucked it up to him or seen him in the endzone, ODB would have definitely had a couple more TDs, at least.

I don't know enough about fantasy basketball/baseball to say whether film is as powerful for those sports, but it seems like the best fantasy football analysts give heavy credence to film because it protects against overreacting to good/bad performances.

Another example - last year there was some player that saw a significant drop in touchdowns (I can't remember off the top of my head who it was). But after looking at film, it became apparent this player unfortunately kept getting tackled at the 1 yard line. Clearly, an anomaly.

Re: A Fantasy Sports Wizard's Winning Formula

#40

Post by swanson » Fri, Oct 17, 2014, 2:49 AM UTC

rohunati wrote: post #39

swanson wrote: post #3

It's been interesting to see the migration of online poker players over to daily fantasy sports (DFS). It definitely feels like the early days of online poker - tons of new sites popping up, heavy TV advertising, lots of new money coming into the "sport". I just started playing DFS this season and it's pretty addictive. Obviously, I don't think I'll be getting rich off it (the "I turned $5 into $50k" stories are just…

Here's one thing I've been curious about for fantasy football. Stats are obviously important, but I'm not sure they can ever replicate simply watching film. For instance, two weeks ago, Odell Beckham Jr of the NY Giants caught 5 catches for 44 yds and a TD. What the stat line doesn't tell you is that he actually smoked his defender a few times, was open in the endzone on a play, and if Eli had chucked it up to him or…

Watching games/film definitely will show you stuff that the boxscore doesn't. Another recent example was a game in which Percy Harvin had 3 TDs called back on penalties. His stats didn't look great, but anyone watching the game knew that he busted out several big plays.

PS. Calvin Johnson is the player who was tackled at the 1.