11–20 of 22 posts
one of the important factor seems to be missing is the negative feedback loop - the more devastating the outbreak the more resources will be thrown at it
I think these models are extremely suspect, with nil predictive value. Where you have sustained exponential growth dynamics, as here, the results are fantastically sensitive to the parameters which go in the exponent, which in this case you can't predict with enough accuracy. The simplest ODE is something like: du/dt = k(t) * u(t) Whose solution locally looks like (for slow-varying k(t)) u(t) ∝ e^{ k(t) * t } One pos…
I think these models are extremely suspect, with nil predictive value. Where you have sustained exponential growth dynamics, as here, the results are fantastically sensitive to the parameters which go in the exponent, which in this case you can't predict with enough accuracy. The simplest ODE is something like: du/dt = k(t) * u(t) Whose solution locally looks like (for slow-varying k(t)) u(t) ∝ e^{ k(t) * t } One pos…
I wish we put more effort into gathering data on what is really happening on the ground rather than modelling almost certainly wrong data. I guess on the upside the chance of catching Ebola is much lower doing studies like this.
I think these models are extremely suspect, with nil predictive value. Where you have sustained exponential growth dynamics, as here, the results are fantastically sensitive to the parameters which go in the exponent, which in this case you can't predict with enough accuracy. The simplest ODE is something like: du/dt = k(t) * u(t) Whose solution locally looks like (for slow-varying k(t)) u(t) ∝ e^{ k(t) * t } One pos…
I have not had a chance to review these models yet. Since you have, I ask: How does the model account for isolation capacity constraints? In other words, hospitals have a finite capacity to deal with these kinds of patients. How does the model account for infection and mortality within the medical community? How does the model account for handling and or procedural errors? How does the model account for the threshold…
the second model at least accounts for decay - gee - but is still essentially two terms with three parameters- the result is two competing decay terms.
This is, essentially, a trivial joke. it has no delay parameters for incubation, etc. I've only skimmed the article, but I can't find an actual attribution of these numbers to the model (the model itself is from a journal). It seriously appears like an editor said, "Let's get some scary-mathy-lookin stuff up there on Ebola).
if it bleeds...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have not had a chance to review these models yet. Since you have, I ask: How does the model account for isolation capacity constraints? In other words, hospitals have a finite capacity to deal with these kinds of patients. How does the model account for infection and mortality within the medical community? How does the model account for handling and or procedural errors? How does the model account for the threshold…
haha i can save you some time. there are two models. the first is hypersimplistic, reciprocal of an decaying exponential with four parameters and zero inflection points (although there's one visible in the data so far)... it does not even come close to addressing your questions. the second model at least accounts for decay - gee - but is still essentially two terms with three parameters- the result is two competing d…
That was funny. Yup, math is scary to a lot of people. Sad statement.
I think these models are extremely suspect, with nil predictive value. Where you have sustained exponential growth dynamics, as here, the results are fantastically sensitive to the parameters which go in the exponent, which in this case you can't predict with enough accuracy. The simplest ODE is something like: du/dt = k(t) * u(t) Whose solution locally looks like (for slow-varying k(t)) u(t) ∝ e^{ k(t) * t } One pos…
Well put. A 'predictive model' should say 'if you do X then you will end up with Y' - and the X cannot be adjusting some number. The X has to be stuff like 'building ETU's in West Africa', or 'canceling all flights',... A predictive model should be able to say 'don't bother canceling flights, it's no use - instead do this...'. Note: I'm going to be teaching a course in Erlang programming next month where the homework…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well put. A 'predictive model' should say 'if you do X then you will end up with Y' - and the X cannot be adjusting some number. The X has to be stuff like 'building ETU's in West Africa', or 'canceling all flights',... A predictive model should be able to say 'don't bother canceling flights, it's no use - instead do this...'. Note: I'm going to be teaching a course in Erlang programming next month where the homework…
Is the course your teaching going be a MOOC or will the assignments be posted publicly? I'd love to try that assignment myself.